Are Democrats Abandoning Israel?

In 2025, just 21% of Democrats expressed sympathy for Israel in Gallup’s annual poll, while a record 59% backed the Palestinians. Bipartisanship—once a strength of Israel’s relationship with the United States—has evaporated as Democrats and Republicans have moved in opposite directions. Republican support, though declining from its peak of 87% in 2018, remains strong at 75%.

Some observers view these results in apocalyptic terms and warn that these trends presage the U.S. abandonment of Israel. However, before giving in to the doomsayers, examining the historical context and data contradicting conventional wisdom is helpful.

Almost 50 years ago, in 1977, Seymour Martin Lipset wrote in Commentary about public support for Israel. They noted that in 27 national polls taken between 1967 and 1977, sympathy for Israel ranged from 35 to 56%, and between 1 and 9% for the Arabs (polls changed the question wording from “Arabs” to “Palestinians” consistently starting in 1993). Sympathy for Israel peaked at 62% between 2010 and 2019 but has dropped yearly since, falling to just 46% in 2025—the lowest since 2001. Meanwhile, sympathy for the Palestinians hit a record high of 33%.

For those who think that support for a Palestinian state is a new trend because of greater sympathy for Palestinian rights or opposition to Israeli policy, consider that a Yankelovich survey in 1977 found that 52% of respondents agreed that “the Palestinians have a right to a homeland as much as the Jews do.” In 2025, Gallup found that 55% supported a Palestinian state, primarily driven by the 76% of Democrats who favored one compared to 41% of Republicans.

That same Yankelovich poll reported that 55% of Americans believed “Israel’s refusal to negotiate with the Palestinians” was an obstacle to peace (70% said the Arabs’ refusal to recognize Israel and negotiate was the primary obstacle). As further evidence that Americans were not in love with Israel, sympathy for Israel in the 1970s Gallup polls averaged only 42%.

Lipset did not look specifically at partisan identification, but did examine differences between liberals and conservatives and McGovern versus Nixon voters. They found that McGovern voters were somewhat less supportive of Israel than Nixon voters, but this was only true for those under 40. This is a noteworthy reminder to those who believe that young people are suddenly turning away from Israel; in fact, this cohort has historically been less supportive of Israel than its elders. The polls also show that, as they age, these same people will become more pro-Israel.

If you look at Gallup data (because they have been consistently asking the sympathy question for decades) on partisan support for Israel during that period, Democratic support was well under 50% in the 1970s. For example, 44% of Americans sympathized with Israel in a 1975 poll, and Republican support exceeded that of Democrats by 47%-42 %. A few months later, they were tied at 40%. In 1979, overall support for Israel was only 40%, and the Republican/Democratic split was 43%-41%.

The data tells us that the notion that Democrats have historically been overwhelmingly sympathetic toward Israel is a myth. Similarly, it is untrue that Republicans were once less supportive of Israel than Democrats. A majority of Republicans have sympathized with Israel since 1997. In the 42 Gallup polls for which data were available between 1993 and 2025, average support for Israel among Republicans was 69%, and for Democrats, 45%. Independents have also turned on Israel, averaging 46%.  Apart from the time of the Gulf War, when support peaked at 62%, most Democrats have never sympathized with Israel. The last time more than half supported Israel was in 2016, when the figure was 53%. Since then, Democrats have not just abandoned Israel but have become more sympathetic toward the Palestinians.

The dramatic change, which has been widely noted, is that support among Republicans has skyrocketed. Instead of a few points difference, as in the 1970s, the partisan gap of 54 points in 2025 is the largest ever recorded.

Gallup analyst Megan Brenan noted: “Democrats’ declining sympathy for the Israelis was seemingly the result of disapproval of the nation’s right-leaning political leadership under Netanyahu. However, it has fallen further in the past two years.” What’s harder to explain is why Democratic support has been so low for years, predating the failure of Oslo, the growth of settlements, the war with Hamas, and all the other issues typically used to explain the party’s qualms with Israel.

Nevertheless, another potentially troubling trend, which is likely related to party identification, is among younger voters. In 2018, 65% of Americans aged 18 to 34 supported Israel. In 2025, that figure has collapsed to just 29%, while 48% sympathize with the Palestinians. In contrast, among Americans aged 40 to 64, support stands at 45%-33% in favor of Israel, while those 65 and older support Israel 56%-26%.

Historically, sympathy toward Israel increases with age, so the problem may not be as severe as it looks now. On the other hand, the trend can change, and a gradual erosion of support for Israel could evolve across age groups. Moreover, what Lipset said years ago may still be true, that “one would have to go to a very fine level of detail — probably among younger blacks and radicals — to find deep-seated anti-Zionist conviction.”

Another important point that Lipset made, which is too often forgotten by those who jump to conclusions based on poll data, is that results do not necessarily represent what they called “passionate conviction.”

Think about the issue of gun control. Polls consistently show significant support for more onerous restrictions, but lawmakers ignore these results because the number of people who have that “passionate conviction” to lobby for gun control, and support candidates with their money and votes, is dwarfed by the far more vocal minority on the other side. In the case of Israel, the pro-Israel side has the double advantage of being the majority and also being more passionate than Israel’s detractors.

It is also important to distinguish between general public opinion and that of elected officials. While a handful of Democratic politicians are certifiably anti-Israel, and a more significant number are sometimes critical, overall, Democratic members of Congress have remained steadfast in support of Israel on key issues such as military cooperation and aid. For example, in April 2025, Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent who votes with the Democrats, sponsored two resolutions to stop military sales to Israel.  Both were easily defeated, with no Republicans and only 15 Democrats supporting the measures. This was four fewer Democratic votes than the previous year when Sanders introduced similar resolutions.

And what about presidents?

Presidents’ positions on the Middle East are based primarily on their ideology and world view, and are less influenced by public opinion or partisan considerations. During the last 40 years, we have had four Democratic presidents and four Republicans, whose reputations on Israel are mixed. Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Barack Obama were widely viewed as more critical of Israel, while Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush were regarded as very pro-Israel. Some argued that Donald Trump was the most pro-Israel president ever in his first term. His successor, Joe Biden, had a mixed record, partly because of his perceived need to satisfy progressives in the Democratic Party to win re-election.

Despite the cratering of Democratic support in the polls, Lipset’s 1977 conclusion that “the only ‘veto group’ in the American electorate concerned with the Middle East is composed of those dedicated to the survival of Israel” remains true today.

Sources: Seymour Martin Lipset, “Carter vs. Israel: What the Polls Reveal,” Commentary, (November 1977).
Mitchell Bard, “Public opinion for Israel shows an alarming trend,” JNS, (March 26, 2025).
Stephen Neukam, “15 Senate Dems vote to cancel billions in Israeli military aid,” Axios, (April 3, 2025).
Marc Rod, “15 Democrats vote for Bernie Sanders-backed resolutions blocking U.S. aid to Israel,” Jewish Insider, (April 3, 2025).