The Israel-Hamas War: Hezbollah Joins the Fight

The Second Front
Violence Escalates
War On the Horizon
Nearing the Brink
Preemptive Strike
Operation Many Ways
Exploding Pagers
Operation Northern Arrow
Nasrallah Is Killed
Degrading Infrastructure
New Leader, Same Policy
Ceasefire
Biden Applies Pressure
Lebanon Elects a President
Israel Withdraws
Peace Talks Begin

The Second Front

A second front in the war was always a possibility, given Iran’s objective of forcing Israel to fight on multiple fronts. Israel has been preparing for years for the possibility of a war in Lebanon and was on alert for any sign Hezbollah might enter the fighting.

Hezbollah was not supposed to be a threat. The United States pressured Israel to end the Second Lebanon War in 2006 with the promise that an international force would be created to keep the peace, Hezbollah would be disarmed, and arms smuggling would be curtailed. When UN Security Council 1701 was adopted, the expectation was that the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) would enforce these objectives. UNIFIL was a total failure: the Lebanese Army failed to take control of the country, Hezbollah refused to disarm or disband and reestablished itself along the Israeli border, and with the help of Syria and Iran, smuggled weapons into Lebanon to prepare for a future war, to destroy Israel.

Hamas believed it committed Hezbollah to attack Israel when it launched its raid on October 7, 2023. One reason that did not happen was Israeli preparations. According to the Wall Street Journal, Israel had launched planes for a preemptive strike against Hezbollah on October 11 when its intelligence indicated Hezbollah was preparing a cross-border attack. Believing they needed American support, Israeli officials informed the Biden administration of the plan. Biden’s top intelligence officials did not believe an attack was imminent from Lebanon. Hoping to avert a wider war, the president convinced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to call off the attack. Netanyahu denied the report.

Still, Israel prepared for war by sending troops to defend the northern border.

Starting the second day of the war, Hezbollah began launching drones and firing anti-tank missiles and mortar shells at IDF positions on the Lebanese border. Israel returned fire. On October 9, several terrorists crossed the border and were killed by Israeli forces.

Tensions continued to grow as Israel’s attacks on Gaza intensified. Hezbollah and IDF troops periodically exchanged fire along the border; one Israeli was killed and three wounded by an anti-tank missile. Israel used artillery to shell the area and may have killed a Reuters videographer and injured six other journalists.

Israel ordered 22 communities along the border to evacuate and began moving troops north.

Both Iran and Hezbollah were thought to be more interested in seeing Israel bogged down and bleeding in Israel than mounting a direct assault. Israel had warned Hezbollah before the Gaza War began that it would show no restraint if it were attacked from Lebanon. According to the Washington Institute’s Hanin Ghaddar:

The goal of Hezbollah’s current strategy seems clear: to reap the benefits of the Hamas-Israel war without losing the military presence it has steadily built up in Lebanon since 2006. Although the group believes that opening another front could temporarily overwhelm Israel per the “united front” strategy designed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), it also seems to realize that this approach would fail to defeat Israel in the long term—more likely, it would wind up destroying Hezbollah’s arsenal and weakening its forces. A full-scale war that ends without clear victory would leave the organization with insufficient funding to restock its military or push a “victory” narrative to its core constituency in Lebanon; the leadership might not even be able to rebuild their strongholds in Beirut and the south.

Ghaddar added that Iran may be satisfied for now with having frozen the Israeli-Saudi normalization process, exposed weaknesses in Israel’s intelligence and military strength, and, through its support for Hamas, “caused serious harm inside Israel in retaliation for suspected Israeli operations inside Iran.”

While the threat from Lebanon has attracted the most attention, Israel is also concerned with the Syrian border. Iranian and Hezbollah forces have been present in Syria since the beginning of the civil war. Iran is believed to have more than 13 military bases with five divisions of troops in Syria, provoking Israel to repeatedly bomb targets in Syria to prevent a buildup of troops and weaponry.

On October 14, rockets were fired at Israel from Syria. Israel responded by bombing the airports in Damascus and Aleppo to interdict Iranian weapons shipments. Israel also began attacking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Two days later, the IDF ordered the evacuation of 28 communities within two miles of the border, and Hezbollah and the IDF exchanged fire. An anti-tank missile injured three people in Metulla on the 17th, and the IDF killed four would-be infiltrators and five other Hezbollah terrorists. On October 18, Hezbollah destroyed surveillance cameras on several Israeli army posts along the border, further ratcheting up tensions. Israel launched airstrikes in Lebanon the following night.

On October 19, 30 rockets were launched from Lebanon toward Kiryat Shemonah. They were believed to have been shot by Hamas. A father and his daughter were wounded.

Hezbollah continued to fire rockets and anti-tank missiles into Israel on October 21. The IDF returned fire. On a visit to the area, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said, “Hezbollah has decided to join the combat and is paying a price for it, and we must prepare for any possibility. Great challenges lie ahead.”

Provocations continued from both Lebanon and Syria. In response to rocket launches from Syria toward Israel on October 24, IAF fighter jets struck military infrastructure and mortar launchers belonging to the Syrian Army. The IDF has intercepted drones from Lebanon and eliminated more than 20 Hezbollah cells.

Another 14 communities near the Lebanese border were set to be evacuated and settled in state-funded guesthouses. Many residents began moving south when attacks from Lebanon escalated. An estimated 250,000 Israelis were displaced from 64 towns that were evacuated.

Hezbollah is coordinating activities with the Gaza terrorists. According to a report by Hezbollah’s al-Manar TV, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah met with the head of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ziad Nahleh, and the deputy head of Hamas’ political bureau, Saleh al-Arouri to discuss the path to “real victory.”

On October 29, the IDF destroyed several Hezbollah observation posts in southern Lebanon in response to four separate rocket and missile attacks. The IDF intercepted a surface-to-air missile that was launched from Lebanese territory on the 31st. Exchanges of fire continued daily, prompting thousands of Lebanese civilians near the border to move north.

Hamas in Lebanon fired 12 rockets at Kiryat Shemonah on November 2, wounding two people and causing widespread damage.

In a much-anticipated speech on November 3, Nasrallah denied that Hezbollah was aware of the Hamas plan or had any part in it but expressed solidarity with the Palestinians and their “martyrs.” He was vague, however, about whether Hezbollah would intensify its attacks. “Some claim Hezbollah is about to join the fray. I tell you: We have been engaged in this battle since October 8,” he said. “Some would like Hezbollah to engage in an all-out war, but I can tell you: What is happening now along the Israeli-Lebanese border is significant, and it is not the end.”

Nasrallah and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also exchanged threats. In his speech, the Hezbollah leader said, “I tell the Israelis, if you are considering carrying out a preemptive attack against Lebanon, it will be the most foolish mistake you make in your entire existence.” Israel’s prime minister responded that Israel’s “enemies in the north” should not escalate the war. “You cannot imagine how much this will cost you,” he declared.

He also accused President Joe Biden of making a “fake argument that Hamas cut off children’s heads (without) evidence.”

Violence Escalates

Violence along the border escalated after his speech, with one Israeli civilian killed by an anti-tank missile fired from Lebanon and Israel launching new airstrikes on Hezbollah targets. On November 6, 30 rockets were fired from Lebanon. There were no reports of damage or injuries, and the IAF responded with strikes on Hezbollah targets. Kiryat Shemonah continued to be bombarded, and the estimated 3,000 residents who remained after the town was evacuated were advised again to leave.

Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi said the military was “ready at any moment to go on the offense in the north.”

Undeterred, Hezbollah fired 20 rockets into Israel on November 7. IAF jets destroyed a Hezbollah weapons warehouse, rocket fire installations, and infrastructure for directing terror attacks.

Hezbollah ceased its attacks during the pause in fighting when Israel and Hamas exchanged prisoners for hostages. Once Hamas broke the ceasefire, Hezbollah resumed its attacks, which seemed to be carefully calibrated to avoid provoking a large-scale Israeli response. Rockets, mortars, and anti-tank missiles were directed at areas close to the border. Israel struck the source of the fire and, in one case, inadvertently hit an area that caused casualties to the Lebanese army. The IDF said it “regretted an incident.”

Nasrallah made another speech saying that Iran supports the “axis of resistance” (including Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, and Iraqi Shia groups). He admitted Arab states felt no compulsion to go to war with Israel but insisted they pressure the United States to call for a ceasefire.

On November 10, a drone fired from Syria hit a school in Eilat. Some 40 students were in the basement at the time but had no serious injuries. Israel responded with an airstrike targeting the group that launched the drone. Hezbollah said seven of its fighters were killed but didn’t say if it was from the Israeli attack.

On November 11, six Israeli civilians were wounded by anti-tank missiles fired from Lebanon as violence continued to escalate. The following day, eight soldiers and ten civilians (six making repairs for the Israel Electricity Corporation) were wounded by missiles. Multiple rockets were fired, four were intercepted, and the rest fell in open areas. Another 20 rockets were fired on the 13th. The IAF responded with airstrikes.

Hezbollah continued to fire at Israeli targets. On November 17, more than ten missile and mortar attacks came from Lebanon. An anti-tank missile wounded four Israelis. The IDF  responded with artillery shelling and airstrikes.

Hezbollah also stepped up its attacks on northern Israel. Rather than react to each one as it did in the first weeks of the war, the IDF began to initiate operations against Hezbollah’s infrastructure. The Biden administration remained worried that the fighting would escalate to all-out war and rebuked Israel for attacks that had hit Lebanese armed forces, which the U.S. has been supporting and arming.

One reason Israel may be holding back from a major assault is that approximately 20% of Hezbollah’s rockets have landed inside Lebanon.

Those reaching Israel caused extensive damage. On December 7, an Israeli civilian was killed by an anti-tank missile fired from Lebanon.

Israel has continued its limited strikes in Lebanon and also targeted Hezbollah military sites inside Syria. The violence has escalated almost daily. on December 26, nine soldiers were wounded while helping an Israeli civilian wounded by an anti-tank missile fired at the St. Mary’s Greek-Orthodox Church in the northern village of Iqrit. The IDF killed the terrorist who fired the missile.

The heaviest barrage to date was on December 27, with six rockets causing damage to residential buildings and infrastructure in Kiryat Shemonah. An additional three rockets were intercepted by Iron Dome, with the remainder landing in open areas.

War On the Horizon

The inevitability of an all-out war was becoming increasingly obvious. On December 27, a source told Haaretz, “Hezbollah has fired off in the current conflict more than 2,500 missiles and mortar shells. This is nothing less than a declaration of war. In any other situation, we would have responded differently, but we have consciously decided not to fight back. We hope and pray that diplomacy will cause Hezbollah to calm down. But even if that happens, it’s like taking an aspirin.” A Likud minister lamented, “Yes, we may find ourselves in a more difficult situation than we’re in now, as difficult as that is, as odd as that may seem. We understand that if we don’t act now, the price will be higher and more painful later. The real test of Hezbollah’s intentions will come when we move to the next stage in Gaza.”

Following the assassination of Arouri in Beirut, Nasrallah called the attack a “major and dangerous crime” that “will not go unanswered and unpunished.” He said, “If the enemy thinks of waging a war on Lebanon, we will fight without restraint, without rules, without limits, and without restrictions.”

Hezbollah Weapons Storage Facilities Targeted by IDF

The Biden administration sent Special Envoy Amos Hochstein to Lebanon and Israel “to help resolve some of the tension” and prevent the escalation of fighting. Gallant said after meeting with the envoy that time for a diplomatic solution was running out. “There is only one possible result – a new reality in the northern arena, which will enable the secure return of our citizens,” Gallant said. “Yet we find ourselves at a junction -- there is a short window of time for diplomatic understandings, which we prefer. We will not tolerate the threats posed by the Iranian proxy, Hezbollah, and we will ensure the security of our citizens.”

Hezbollah targeted Israeli surveillance outposts and damaged a key air traffic control base on Mount Meron used to coordinate air attacks in Lebanon. The person believed responsible for the attack on the base, Wissam Al Tawil, a senior commander also responsible for the Radwan Brigade in the area, was killed in a targeted strike two days later. Tawil was Nasrallah’s brother-in-law. The commander of Hezbollah’s drone force, Ali Hussein Barji, was killed on his way to Tawil’s funeral.

Terrorists attempted to infiltrate from the north. Israel killed four on January 13. The following day, a missile strike in Kfar Yuval killed a mother and her son and seriously injured the father. These were the first civilian casualties on the northern border since November 13, when an anti-tank missile killed an electrician repairing power lines damaged in another attack. Israel responded with air and artillery strikes on Hezbollah sites.

On January 25, the IDF attacked a key Hezbollah-Iranian airstrip in Kilat Jaber, Lebanon, that was used for launching aerial attacks against Israel.

The impact of Hezbollah’s anti-tank strikes was receiving little publicity in the international media because the civilian areas they were targeting were evacuated. Still, they were affecting families from places like Kiryat Shemonah, Shtula, Metullah, and Kibbutz Dafna, whose homes were being destroyed. As of February 1, 2024, 80,000 residents had been evacuated, 427 homes had structural damage, and 80 had major damage from direct hits. The most damaged were in Metullah 131 homes, Shlomi 130, and Manarah 121.

The United States reportedly exchanged messages with Nasrallah, who believes the Americans control Israel and can prevent it from attacking Lebanon. Nasrallah was told he was wrong and should not make the mistake of provoking Israel to launch an all-out war.

Meanwhile, Biden emissary Amos Hochstein continued efforts to reach a diplomatic solution. The proposals, however, require only a partial implementation of Resolution 1701. Hezbollah would not be required to disarm or move its forces north of the Litani River. Lebanese army troops would be deployed along the border, and Hezbollah would agree not to move forces it has withdrawn back to the area. Lebanon would receive economic carrots for agreeing to a deal. Israel would have to stop its flights into Lebanon and pull out some of its forces from the border. Israel did not reject the proposal but continued to insist that the border situation would have to change to allow its citizens to return to their homes.

Since Hezbollah began bombarding northern Israel, few casualties were reported. On February 13, 2024, however, a 15-year-old boy and a 47-year-old woman were seriously injured when their car was hit by a rocket near Kiryat Shemonah. The following day, multiple rockets landed in Safed, killing one and injuring seven.

In a speech on February 13, Nasrallah declared, “We are committed to fighting Israel until it is off the map. A strong Israel is dangerous to Lebanon, but a deterred Israel, defeated and exhausted, is less of a danger to Lebanon.” He added, “The national interest of Lebanon, the Palestinians, and the Arab world is that Israel leaves this battle defeated. Therefore, we are committed that Israel is defeated.”

On February 15, Israel killed Ali Muhammad al-Debes and his deputy Hassan Ibrahim Issa. The former was a commander in the Radwan Force who Israel said was one of the masterminds behind a bombing attack at the Megiddo Junction and other attacks against Israel.

With the scale of violence ramping up, the Washington Post reported that Iranian officials have told Hezbollah not to give Israel a reason to initiate an all-out war in Lebanon. Hezbollah was also urged to “exercise restraint against U.S. forces” to avoid provoking an American response.

Meanwhile, little attention has been given to another serious threat posed by Hezbollah, namely its tunnel system. Israel discovered some tunnels near the border, which it believed were meant for a 10/7 type attack. Operation Northern Shield destroyed them at the beginning of 2019. This was yet another example of how Hezbollah violated UN Resolution 1701, and UNIFIL failed in its primary mission.

A new report from a French publication says that Hezbollah has a tunnel network built with North Korean assistance that stretches hundreds of miles, including branches into Syria. The tunnels are believed to house missiles and other weapons. As in Gaza, they are built under civilian homes. This may pose an even greater challenge for the IDF as Hezbollah has far more experienced and skilled fighters in addition to more sophisticated weapons than Hamas.

In preparation for the expected expansion of the war with Hezbollah, the Israeli Navy conducted exercises to simulate preventing drone attacks, aerial rescue operations from vessels, and refueling the missile boats at sea. The exercises were timed with new warnings from Israel that if a diplomatic solution to the threat from Hezbollah were not found soon, it would be necessary to take military action. 

Foreign Minister Israel Katz said Israel provided the UN Security Council with evidence that Iran was continuing to send arms to Hezbollah in violation of Resolution 1701. The intelligence included details on the types of weapons supplied, the routes used, and the shipment dates.

Strikes back and forth continued daily, with Israel hitting deeper into Lebanon and Hezbollah escalating threats of reprisals.

On March 4, 2024, eight foreign workers were injured by an anti-tank missile. One from India died.

Even as Hochstein met with Lebanese officials in an effort to head off further escalation, Hezbollah was launching salvos of missiles. Hochstein said a truce in Gaza would not necessarily bring an automatic end to hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. “Escalation of violence is in no one’s interest, and there is no such thing as a limited war,” he said. “A temporary ceasefire is not enough. A limited war is not containable.”

Israel’s position remained unchanged. It would not stop fighting until it was safe for the 80,000 residents who were evacuated from border communities to safely return to their homes. All efforts to pressure the Lebanese government and Hezbollah to accept the terms of UN Security Council 1701 failed.

On March 27, a 25-year-old man was killed by a Hezbollah rocket that hit a building in Kiryat Shmona and caused a fire. A second man was rescued unharmed. Hezbollah said the attack was in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike that killed seven members of the al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya group who were planning to infiltrate the border. The group cooperates with Hezbollah even though it is composed of Sunni Muslims, while Hezbollah is Shiite.

On April 16, 14 IDF soldiers and four civilians were wounded by two Hezbollah drones and two anti-tank missiles fired at and around a community center in Arab al-Aramshe, a Bedouin village in northern Galilee. Civilians had returned to the town after having left for safety for three months because they had not received any financial aid. Israel responded with multiple airstrikes.

“Half of the Hezbollah commanders in south Lebanon have been eliminated… and the other half hide and abandon south Lebanon to IDF operations,” Gallant said on April 24.

On April 26, an anti-tank missile killed an Israeli Bedouin working on an infrastructure project for the IDF in the Mount Dov area, which was a frequent target of Hezbollah.

France, which has historic ties to Lebanon, has been attempting to negotiate an end to the fighting. French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne met with Lebanese and Israeli officials and reportedly proposed that Hezbollah withdraw its forces to 10 km north of the border and remove outposts near the border. Lebanese Armed Forces would then be deployed along the border. Israel would stop flying over Lebanese airspace and negotiate a change in the border. Hezbollah rejected the deal and continued its bombardment of northern communities in Israel, with Israel responding with tank and mortar fire along with airstrikes.

On May 6, two Israeli reserve soldiers were killed in a Hezbollah drone attack.

Hezbollah escalated its attacks in late May and early June, attacking targets deeper inside Israel with rockets and drones. On June 10, Hezbollah tried for the first time to shoot down an Israeli fighter using Iranian-made anti-aircraft missiles. The jet was unharmed, and the missile site was destroyed.

Nearing the Brink

Israel killed the highest-ranking Hezbollah commander on June 11, 2024. Taleb Sami Abdullah had been in charge of a unit that oversees parts of the southern border region. Hezbollah responded with a barrage of more than 200 rockets. One hit a factory in Kibbutz Sasa, some three miles from the border. Others were intercepted over Safed. Still more started fires. The Israeli Parks Authority said nearly 15,000 acres of land had burned in the first half of 2024.

On June 18, General Ori Gordin, head of the IDF Northern Command, and General Oded Basiuk, head of the Operations Directorate, announced the IDF had approved operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon. A day later, Hezbollah released a video purportedly taken by a drone showing Israeli military and civilian locations in several Israeli cities, which was seen as a warning of potential targets if an all-out war begins.

Nasrallah intensified his threats on June 19, saying if there is a war, “there will be no place safe from our missiles and our drones.” He added Hezbollah would fight with “no rules” and “no ceilings.”

He also threatened Cyprus. “The Cypriot government must be warned that opening Cypriot airports and bases for the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon means that the Cypriot government has become part of the war and the resistance (Hezbollah) will deal with it as part of the war,” Nasrallah said.

Though Cyprus and Israel have good relations and have conducted joint military exercises, the Cypriot president insisted his government was not taking sides. “It (Cyprus) is not part of the problem, it is part of the solution. That role is evident, for example, through the humanitarian (aid) corridor [to Gaza’ which has been acknowledged not only by the Arab world, but from the international community.”

Analysts were focused on the number and capability of Hezbollah’s missiles and drones and Israel’s ability to defend against them. According to the Alma Research and Education Center, Hezbollah’s arsenal consists of:

• 150,000 mortars
• 65,000 rockets with a range of 50 miles (80 km)
• 5,000 rockets with a range of 50-125 miles(80-200 km)
• 5,000 missiles with a range of 125-435 miles (200-700 km)
• 2,500 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
• Hundreds of advanced conventional weapons

Of these, some 75,000 have been converted to precision-guided rockets/missiles, which Hezbollah can fire from hardened bunkers and mobile launchers. Reichman University’s Institute for Counter-Terrorism reported Hezbollah could fire up to 3,000 missiles a day for as long as three weeks. 

“We assess that at least some” Iron Dome batteries “will be overwhelmed,” a senior Biden administration official told CNN. The Iron Dome is also ineffective against drones, which Hezbollah has increasingly used to devastating effect. 

U.S. officials were especially worried about the war escalating. Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Iran “would be more inclined to support Hezbollah.” He said the U.S. was discouraging Israel from attacking Lebanon and “to think about the second order of effect of any type of operation into Lebanon, and how that might play out and how it impacts not just the region, but how it impacts our forces in regions as well.”

While the administration reassured Israeli officials that the U.S. would support Israel, Brown said the U.S. would not be able to provide the same protection against Hezbollah missiles that it did when Iran attacked Israel. The U.S. could intercept long-range ballistic missiles but could not stop short-range rockets or drones unless it had planes in the air over Israel, which would complicate operations for the Israeli Air Force.

While talk of all-out war was growing more strident, Israel and Hezbollah continued their mostly tit-for-tat attacks and counterattacks. Israel began to strike deeper into Lebanon and eliminated Ayman Ratma, who was responsible for weapons supplies for the Hamas and Jamaa Islamiya terrorist organizations in Lebanon. 

Another alarming report came from The Telegraph, which said whistleblowers at Beirut airport were worried it might become a target because of increasing weapons supplies arriving on flights from Iran, which were being stored at the site. Wafiq Safa, Hezbollah’s second in command and the head of its security apparatus, was said to be a regular visitor to the airport. With Hezbollah in control of the government and the area surrounding the airfield, sources told the paper nothing could be done. Lebanon’s transport minister, the choice of Hezbollah, denied the allegations of the whistleblowers.

AP reported that “thousands of fighters from Iran-backed groups in the Middle East are ready to come to Lebanon” to fight with Hezbollah if Israel attacks. “We told them, thank you, but we are overwhelmed by the numbers we have,” Nasrallah said. The group claimed to have more than 100,000 fighters. 

Khalil Rizk, the chief of Hizbullah’s foreign relations department, made clear Hezbollah considers its real enemy the United States. “This is not a war with Israel,” he said. “Israel is merely a tool. The main war, the real war, is with America.”

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that Hezbollah’s “provocations threaten to drag the Israeli and Lebanese people into a war that neither of them wants, and such a war would be a catastrophe for Lebanon, and it would be devastating for innocent Israeli and Lebanese civilians.” He insisted “principled diplomacy is the only way to prevent any further escalation of tensions in the region.”

In addition, Hochstein visited Beirut and warned that the U.S. would not be able to keep Israel from invading Lebanon if Hezbollah did not stop its attacks and negotiate an agreement to end hostilities.

Indications that the escalation was near were that the U.S. and other countries began advising their citizens to leave Lebanon. 

On June 27, Ali al-Din was killed in a targeted strike. He was a member of Hezbollah’s aerial forces, behind drone attacks on northern Israel. In response, Hezbollah fired a barrage of 40 rockets into Israel, and the IAF responded with airstrikes.

Two days later, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said on Friday that if Israel embarks on a “full-scale military aggression” in Lebanon against Hezbollah, “an obliterating war will ensue.” It said, “all options, including the full involvement of all resistance fronts, are on the table.”

From October 8, 2023, through the end of June 2024, Hezbollah launched 2,295 attacks on Israel, including anti-tank missiles and drones. On the last day of June, in the most serious incident to date, 18 Israeli soldiers were wounded when a drone hit an area where they were stationed in the northern Golan Heights.

After evacuating some 61,000 citizens from 43 communities within three miles of the Lebanese border, Israel made clear the situation was untenable and that unless a diplomatic solution forced Hezbollah away from the border, an all-out war was coming. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken admitted as much on July 1, 2024, when he said Israel “has effectively lost sovereignty in the northern quadrant of its country because people don’t feel safe to go to their homes” and though Israel did not want a war, “they may well be prepared to engage in one if necessary — from their perspective — to protect their interests.”

Israel killed another Hezbollah commander, Muhammad Nimah Nasser, on July 3. Hezbollah retaliated with a barrage of more than 200 rockets and drones, which sparked fires in northern Israel. Continuing the pattern, the IAF responded with airstrikes.

One hope for avoiding an all-out war was that a hostage and ceasefire deal could be reached with Hamas. Hezbollah has also said it would ceasefire if such an agreement took effect. However, their forces would remain, in defiance of UN Resolution 1701, near the Israeli border, and the population that was forced to evacuate the northern communities is not likely to feel safe enough to return under those conditions. If so, it seems a war to at least push Hezbollah north of the Litani River would be inevitable.

Hezbollah rockets continued to cause damage in northern communities and spark fires. 

The IDF escalated its targeting of the supply chain and storage of weapons from Iran, including commanders responsible for arming the group. On July 9, the IDF assassinated Yasser Nimer Qarnabash; Hezbollah responded with a barrage of 40 rockets. Nasrallah subsequently ordered commanders to stop using cell phones that Israel could track. 

“If Israeli tanks come to Lebanon, they will not only have a shortage in tanks but will never have any tanks left,” Nasrallah threatened on July 17. “The resistance missiles will target new Israeli settlements that were not targeted before.” He added, “Our front in Lebanon will not stop as long as the aggression against Gaza, its people, and resistance in its various forms continues.”

The following day, Hezbollah said Israel killed Habib Maatouk, a senior commander in the Radwan force. He was the replacement for someone Israel killed in April. After assassinations, Hezbollah has usually increased its bombardment of Israel.

On July 27, 2024, a rocket fired from Lebanon hit a soccer field in the northern Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, killing 12 children and wounding dozens more. This incident marks the deadliest Hezbollah attack on northern Israel since the conflict began on October 7. The victims, aged 10-20, were unable to escape in time despite a warning siren. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, cutting short his U.S. visit, returned home amid escalating tensions and threats of significant retaliation, including by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Israeli officials and the IDF confirmed that the attack was carried out by Hezbollah using an Iranian-made Falaq-1 rocket. The IDF identified the Hezbollah commander responsible for the strike and reiterated its commitment to a severe military response. 

World leaders and others immediately urged Israel to show restraint to avoid escalation. The U.S. said Israel had every right to respond but was reportedly urging Israel not to launch a ground invasion, attack Beirut, or target infrastructure. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned, “Any possible Israeli attack on Lebanon will have serious consequences for Israel.”

The IDF continued to use air strikes to degrade Hezbollah’s military capacity and to create about a three-mile (5 km.) security zone stretching from the Israeli border into Lebanon. Thousands of Lebanese civilians have fled the border communities, and Hezbollah moved most of its fighters further into the interior.

Hezbollah targeted an Israeli gas rig in the Mediterranean twice in two days. The Israeli Navy intercepted the UAVs in both instances. Before the war, the rigs were considered vulnerable to attack, and Israel increased security around them.

On July 30, 2024, Israel killed Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s most senior military commander and a right-hand man to Nasrallah in an air strike in Beirut. Shukr was responsible for the Majdal Shams strike that killed 12 children and other deadly attacks on Israel. The IDF said he was “responsible for the majority of Hezbollah’s most advanced weaponry, including precise-guided missiles, cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, long-range rockets, and UAVs” and for the terror group’s “force build-up, planning, and execution of terror attacks against the State of Israel.” He also was a member of the Jihad Council, Hezbollah’s top military body. It was the first Israeli attack on the Lebanese capital since a January strike that killed Hamas’s deputy leader abroad Saleh al-Arouri.

Israel was bracing for a retaliatory attack from Hezbollah. The low-level tit-for-tat attacks continued in the meantime, with one Hezbollah drone strike injuring 19 Israelis in the Western Galilee. With Hezbollah firing dozens of rockets, the IDF conducted brigade-level exercises in preparation for combat in Lebanon. 

As of August 25, 2024, Hezbollah has launched over 8,000 rockets and 200 UAVs into Israel, causing billions of shekels in damage to agriculture and tourism and destroying 250,000 acres of dunams.

Netanyahu was increasingly under pressure to decide whether to invade Lebanon to push Hezbollah away from the border to enable the 70,000 residents of the north who evacuated the area to return to their homes. Unless those citizens are confident Hezbollah cannot stage an October 7-type attack, which it is believed they had planned before Hamas ruined their element of surprise, they are unlikely to feel safe enough to return. 

Rough map showing the area that has been evacuated between the
red line and the broken line marking the border of Lebanon

With Israel’s northern border effectively redrawn, Netanyahu faced a stark choice: launch the invasion of Lebanon that he has long avoided or accept the loss of sovereignty in the north. The U.S. will likely oppose an Israeli land incursion, and the international demonization of Israel will undoubtedly grow, as will campus protests. Even if Israel goes into Lebanon, there is no assurance it will emerge victorious. As the inevitable civilian casualties mount, Israel will be criticized in the press and pressured to end the war before the IDF can accomplish its goals. The wider war Biden has managed to avert could be even more likely if Iran decides to defend its proxy.

A soldier was killed and another seriously wounded in a drone attack on Western Galilee. The IDF responded with airstrikes on Hezbollah weapons depots. A drone strike also killed Hussein Ali Hussein Suleiman, part of the group’s rocket and missile unit.

Preemptive Strike

In the early morning of August 25. Israel detected that thousands of Hezbollah launchers were set on a timer to launch a massive rocket attack at the north and drones at central issue. Mossad headquarters was believed to be among the targets. The IDF preemptively attacked launch sites in 40 locations across southern Lebanon. Hezbollah managed to launch 210 rockets and 20 drones, but most were intercepted or caused minor damage. One Israeli sailor was believed killed by the shrapnel from an Iron Dome interceptor destroying a drone aimed at an Israel Navy ship. Hezbollah acknowledged the death of two of its fighters.

The IDF published maps showing that many of the rocket launchers were in civilian areas of Lebanon, demonstrating again Hezbollah’s attempted use of civilians as shields.

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The Environmental Protection Ministry reported at the end of August that the 8,000 rockets and drones fired at Israel since October 7 had incinerated about 56 square miles of vegetation along the northern border.

Meanwhile, the IDF continued exercises in the north and deployed Iron Dome batteries to strategic locations in preparation for war.

Operation Many Ways

On September 8, 2024, an Israeli commando raid, “Operation Many Ways,” targeted an underground Iranian missile production facility used by Hezbollah in Masyaf, Syria. This facility, codenamed “Deep Layer,” was dug into a mountain in a scientific studies and research center. It was intended to produce hundreds of precision missiles per year for both Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Assad regime in Syria. The facility was nearing operational status, having already made at least two missiles as part of testing. The IDF estimated that the facility would have been able to manufacture between 100 and 300 missiles a year, potentially replacing the need for Iran to truck missiles and parts from its territory to Lebanon via Syria.

The operation was complex and daring. One hundred twenty members of the IAF’s elite Shaldag unit and the search and rescue Unit 669 were involved. The mission involved four CH-53 “Yasur” heavy transport helicopters carrying the commandos, two attack helicopters for support, 21 fighter jets, five drones, 14 spy planes, and other aircraft. Another 30 aircraft were on standby in Israel in case of emergencies. The helicopters flew unusually low over the Mediterranean Sea before crossing into Syria to avoid detection. The operation was also timed to take advantage of clear weather conditions.

A key target within the facility was the planetary mixers, which were crucial for producing solid rocket fuel. Solid rocket fuel allows missiles to be launched without on-site fueling, making them less vulnerable to detection. It also significantly enhances the missile’s range and precision. The raid, lasting two and a half hours, involved planting explosives throughout the facility, particularly on the planetary mixers. The commandos successfully detonated the explosives, creating a blast equivalent to one ton of TNT. No Israeli soldiers were injured during the operation. The IDF assessed that around 30 Syrian guards and soldiers were killed.

Following the raid, images of the planetary mixers from the destroyed facility were released to the public for the first time. The operation set back Iran’s missile production for at least two years and destroyed at least a dozen planetary mixers, each costing approximately $2 million. Israel has been targeting Iran’s planetary mixers since at least 2019, carrying out attacks in Beirut and against a vessel delivering a mixer. The destruction of “Deep Layer” represented a significant blow to Iran’s efforts to arm its allies in the region.

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Exploding Pagers

On September 17, Netanyahu announced the cabinet had voted to formally make the safe return of residents from communities along its border with Lebanon to their homes a war objective. This was always understood to be a political necessity, but this is the first time it has been made an official war goal. Earlier, Netanyahu and Gallant told Hochstein during his visit to Jerusalem, hoping to head off an all-out war, that “military action” was “the only way” to achieve this objective.” The same message was delivered to Austin, who had told Gallant to give talks time to succeed. Netanyahu said, “while Israel appreciates and respects the support of the U.S., it will ultimately do what is necessary to safeguard its security and return the residents of the north securely to their homes.”

Several hours later, pagers belonging to Hezbollah fighters exploded across Lebanon and parts of Syria. Reports were conflicting, but an estimated 3,000 people were injured, and at least 12 Hezbollah terrorists were killed. Among the wounded was the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, who lost an eye. Hezbollah had adopted the use of the pagers because Israel could track their cell phones. Iran denied it, but a Saudi publication reported that similar explosions in Syria killed 19 Iranian Revolutionary Guards and wounded 150.

The Mossad operation to sabotage communication devices was the result of years of meticulous planning, starting with efforts to infiltrate Hezbollah using electronic surveillance and informants. Mossad agents carefully sourced components for the AR924 pagers from multiple suppliers to evade detection, then assembled the devices in a secure facility under Mossad supervision. Each pager was discreetly embedded with a small battery, concealed plastic explosive, and an undetectable detonator, invisible to X-ray. The device could be remotely triggered by an encrypted message that required users to hold the pager with both hands, increasing the likelihood of debilitating injuries from the ensuing blast.

A Taiwanese company, Apollo, marketed the AR924 pagers as secure from Israeli surveillance, unaware that they were embedded with explosives that could be detonated remotely. The sale was facilitated through a trusted intermediary who had connections to Hezbollah, ensuring the pagers were not traced back to Israeli sources. Hezbollah purchased 5,000 of these devices for its commanders and rank and file.

Some speculated this was a response to the Shin Bet’s revelation it had foiled a Hezbollah assassination attempt on ex-Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon. More likely, it was a first strike in the escalation of the war.

The day after the pagers exploded, more explosions occurred across Lebanon. These involved walkie-talkies purchased at the same time as the pagers five months earlier. The two attacks injured hundreds of fighters, with many suffering severe injuries such as losing eyes and limbs; at least 37 people were killed. A Hezbollah official later said 1,500 terrorists were too injured to fight. Panic ensued with reports of iPhones, computers, and other devices with lithium batteries exploding. Hezbollah’s means of communication were disrupted, and many of its Radwan Force Commanders were thought to be killed or injured. 

No details were immediately available, but a Saudi source reported that explosions occurred at the headquarters of the terrorist organization al-Hashd al-Shaabi in Mosul, Iraq, at the same time as the explosions of Hezbollah walkie-talkies in Lebanon.

Israel reportedly moved up the attack because it suspected Hezbollah might have discovered the plan. Just minutes before the operation began, Gallant called Austin and told him only that Israel was about to conduct an operation. Months later, after leaving the government, Gallant said that because Hezbollah was suspicious, only about 200 walkie-talkies were held by terrorists, the rest were blown up in storage and isolated places and had no impact. The former defense minister said he wanted to detonate them on October 11, which he said “could have changed the course of the war” and “eliminated all the chain of command of Hezbollah immediately.” Netanyahu said, however, that the operation had to wait because too few beepers were in Lebanon.

In a February 25, 2025, speech, Mossad Director David Barnea called the agency’s beeper operation a turning point in the Northern war. Barnea praised the operation’s intelligence, technological superiority, and strategic impact, stating that it significantly weakened Hezbollah’s morale. Barnea said that it was conceived as a more effective alternative to previous radio-based tactics and was ultimately deployed with more significant impact as the war progressed. He said the operation had begun ten years earlier and that when they realized the walkie-talkies weren’t the only way Hezbollah communicated, they decided in 2022 to booby-trap the pagers.

The operation prompted a statement from France and the United States. “France and the United States are united in calling for restraint and urging de-escalation when it comes to the Middle East in general and when it comes to Lebanon in particular,” Blinken said after talks in Paris with French counterpart Stephane Sejourne. “We don’t want to see any escalatory actions by any party” that would jeopardize the negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza.

“It is an act of war against the people of Lebanon, Lebanon’s sovereignty. It is a declaration of war,” Nasrallah said after two days of explosions decimating Hezbollah’s communication system and maiming or killing dozens of its members. “They will face a severe reckoning.”

Besides humiliating Hezbollah, the Washington Post noted the Israeli operation “eroded the once-solid sense of security they felt living far from the front lines in southern Lebanon.”

It also disrupted the ability of Hezbollah to communicate and, combined with the assassination of the group’s commanders, was believed to inhibit their command and control over their rocket arsenal.

The presumed Israeli attacks also fractured the Iranians’ sense of security. The IRGC banned the use of all communication devices until they could be inspected and began an investigation into possible Israeli infiltration of the group. It also arrested 12 people for alleged collaboration with Israel.

The IAF subsequently struck more than 100 missile launchers before rockets could be fired. Gallant said Israel had entered “a new phase of the war” as troops were ordered to redeploy from Gaza to the northern front.

The threat of escalation led airlines to halt flights to Israel and Beirut. Lebanon also banned pagers and walkie-talkies from flights leaving Beirut.

The decision was warranted as Israel staged several airstrikes targeting Hezbollah neighborhoods in Beirut. On September 20, one strike killed Ibrahim Aqil, commander of the Radwan Force and the person who replaced the former number two person in the organization, Fuad Shukr, who Israel assassinated in July. The IDF said an airstrike killed Aqil while he was meeting under a residential building with at least ten commanders who were also killed. Israel said they were planning an October 7-type attack. Aqil was also wanted by the United States, which offered a $7 million reward for information because of his role in the bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks and Embassy in Beirut that killed 304 people in 1983. 

Operation Northern Arrow

On September 23, 2024, Gallant announced that Israel had entered a “new stage” in the war. “We are deepening our attacks in Lebanon,” he said. “The actions will continue until we achieve our goal to return the northern residents safely to their homes.”

In the days following the pager and walkie-talkie attacks, Israel significantly intensified its bombing campaign. Anticipating the likelihood of an increase in Hezbollah missile strikes, the IAF conducted hundreds of sorties to destroy launch sites and terror infrastructure built up since the Second Lebanon War in what it called Operation Northern Arrow. Since many are located in or around civilian homes, Israel told the Lebanese to leave any area where rockets or weapons were stored, causing civilians to flee the south. Meanwhile, Israeli ground forces mobilized near the border.

Hezbollah continued to fire hundreds of rockets during that time and, according to the Times of Israel, “expanded the range to hit the greater Haifa area and the Jezreel Valley, putting some two million Israelis in range of its strikes.”

“We are talking about distancing Hezbollah from the border and degrading its capabilities,” Netanyahu said on September 23. “This is not a one-off event. We will continue, but would prefer not to get to all-out war.”

Hezbollah claimed to be targeting military sites in Israel, but the strikes appeared indiscriminate and aimed at civilian areas. Israeli Arabs had already been targeted in the attack on Majdal Shams. Palestinians in the West Bank were not safe either, as one rocket landed in the town of Deir Istiya. Fortunately for everyone, most of the incoming projectiles were intercepted.

Israeli air defense also shot down a drone and two cruise missiles launched from Iraq.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog told Sky News, “We do not want war. We absolutely did not seek this war. This war was instigated by the empire of evil - the Iranian proxies in the region under the command of Iran - from the south, Hamas; from the north, Hezbollah; from Yemen, by the Houthis, from Iraq, from all over the place. As part of this strategy, as the Supreme Leader of Iran just said yesterday, that Israel is a tumor that must be removed. So Israel is fighting for its well-being, its existence, its citizens. That’s what we are doing. And it is the right thing to do.”

He added that Israel was not at war with the country of Lebanon, which he said had been “hijacked by a terror organization which is also a political party and it’s been armed to its teeth by the Iranian empire of evil.”

On September 24, Israel continued waves of airstrikes and successfully targeted and killed the head of Hezbollah’s rocket and missile division, Ibrahim Qubaisi. The IDF said Qubaisi also planned Hezbollah’s kidnapping attack in 2000 in which IDF soldiers Staff Sgt. Benyamin Avraham, Staff Sgt. Adi Avitan and Staff Sgt. Omar Sawaid were killed and their bodies were abducted (they were returned in a prisoner exchange in 2004).

A senior officer told the Times of Israel that the airstrikes were the most extensive the IAF had ever conducted. They were directed at Hezbollah command centers, missile launch sites, and weapons storage facilities. Often, secondary explosions occurred after an Israeli strike, indicating the presence of weapons in the buildings.

Hezbollah fired more than 150 rockets, reaching as far as areas south of Haifa. Many buildings were damaged, and fires started. Most injuries were minor and resulted from being hit by falling shrapnel from interceptions as they ran for bomb shelters after sirens went off. Two Palestinians, a 60-year-old man and an elderly woman, were hurt when a rocket struck between homes in Deir Istiya and caused “significant material damage.”

Halevi said, “Hezbollah must not be given a break...We will accelerate the offensive operations today and bolster all the arrays. The situation requires continued intensive action on all fronts.”

Lebanese civilians were also again warned to evacuate areas Israel planned to bomb. “If you are near or in Hezbollah buildings or those used by it to store weapons, you must move away from those buildings at least one kilometer away or outside the village, immediately,” Col. Avichay Adraee, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman, said on X.

The Lebanese Foreign Ministry reported that nearly half a million people had been displaced from southern Lebanon, and as the civilian casualty toll in Lebanon grew, so did the international calls for an end to the fighting. For example, the G7 issued this statement: “Actions and counter-reactions risk magnifying this dangerous spiral of violence and dragging the entire Middle East into a broader regional conflict with unimaginable consequences.” 

Israeli President Isaac Herzog said on “Face the Nation” two days earlier, “We agree, time and again, to go into rounds of talks. We support and welcome the efforts by the United States of America and the administration. Truly. We respect it tremendously. But at the end of it, Hochstein leaves Israel, and they keep on firing and firing, and that cannot go on forever, because our citizens must go back home....We don’t want war, but if it’s waged against us, we go all the way.” 

Foreign Minister Israel Katz laid out the solution for ending the war in a letter to the UN Security Council: “Now, this council must bring about a full implementation of UNSC Resolution 1701 and guarantee that there are no armed personnel, assets, and weapons between the Blue Line and the Litani River, other than those of the Government of Lebanon and UNIFIL.” 

Ignoring the Israeli position, the U.S. and France issued a joint statement, later joined by nine other countries and the European Union, calling for an immediate 21-day “ceasefire to give diplomacy a chance to succeed and avoid further escalations across the border.” A senior U.S. official followed up the statement by saying, “We hope that it might also open up diplomatic space as well to galvanize efforts on the very important primary effort: we have to bring the hostages home.” 

Both Israel and Hezbollah rejected the ceasefire proposal and continued fighting. In less than a week, the IAF had struck more than 2,000 targets, and Hezbollah had fired several hundred rockets.

Biden was reportedly furious with Netanyahu because the proposal had been coordinated with Israel. Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer had privately agreed to accept the ceasefire in principle. When he landed in New York for his upcoming speech to the UN General Assembly, the prime minister was expected to say that Israel welcomed any ceasefire plan that would allow the residents of northern Israel to return to their homes. Right-wing members of Netanyhau’s coalition threatened to bolt if the war did not continue, leading Netanyahu to backtrack from the understanding with the United States and publicly declare Israel’s intention to continue the war. A source told Israel’s Channel 12, “Obviously the president of the United States would not lead a process like this without the agreement of Prime Minister Netanyahu. This backtracking completely shatters what remains of relations with the Biden administration.”

Meanwhile, Hezbollah risked provoking a serious escalation when it fired a ballistic missile targeting Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv on September 25th. The David’s Sling air defense system intercepted and destroyed the rocket.

The Biden administration continued to impede Israel’s operations by withholding vital information and weapons. To avoid angering Arab allies and provoking Iran, the Pentagon publicly announced the United States was not providing intelligence support to Israel for its operations against Hezbollah. Republicans in Congress said the administration was also delaying the delivery of MK-84 bombs, Apache attack helicopters, and Caterpillar DP tractors.

The administration also pressured Israel not to attack Lebanese infrastructure even as Hezbollah and Houthi rockets were directed at the port in Haifa and landed near a water pumping station in Tiberias.

Nasrallah Is Killed

Rather than a ceasefire, Israel chose to escalate the fight by striking Hezbollah’s Beirut headquarters on September 27 in an attempt to kill Nasrallah in the underground lair where the group’s top officials routinely meet. Six buildings were flattened, and a day later, Hezbollah acknowledged that Nasrallah and several other commanders were killed, including the organization’s southern front commander, Ali Karaki, and the commander of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards in Syria and Lebanon, Iranian General Abbas Nilforushan.

The death of Nasrallah was mourned by Shiites throughout the region and many Lebanese. It was celebrated, however, by some Sunni Muslims and many Syrians who had been the victims of Hezbollah fighters who helped Bashar Assad during the Syrian civil war.

The timing of Israel’s strike surprised the world because the attack occurred almost simultaneously with Netanyhau’s speech before the United Nations, leading to the suggestion that his speech was a diversion to convince Nasrallah he was safe. American officials were furious that they were informed of Israel’s plan only after the strike began and immediately disavowed involvement.

Earlier that morning, Netanyahu had said, “Israel shares the aims of the U.S.-led initiative of enabling people along our northern border to return safely and securely to their homes. Israel appreciates the U.S. efforts in this regard because the U.S. role is indispensable in advancing stability and security in the region. Our teams met [September 26] to discuss the U.S. initiative and how we can advance the shared goal of returning people safely to their homes. We will continue those discussions in the coming days.”

Reacting to the assassination, President Biden said:

He also reaffirmed his commitment to diplomacy. “In Gaza, we have been pursuing a deal backed by the UN Security Council for a ceasefire and the release of hostages,” Biden said. “In Lebanon, we have been negotiating a deal that would return people safely to their homes in Israel and southern Lebanon. It is time for these deals to close, for the threats to Israel to be removed, and for the broader Middle East region to gain greater stability.”

Meanwhile, IDF officials spoke publicly about plans for a ground offensive and ongoing preparations for an invasion, including special forces operating inside Lebanon. The IDF later revealed it had carried out more than 70 raids in Lebanon since October 7, destroying numerous Hezbollah positions, tunnels, and thousands of weapons. 

“We will face any possibility and we are ready if the Israelis decide to enter by land and the resistance forces are ready for a ground engagement,” said Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem.

In anticipation of the ground operation, Lebanese troops pulled back from the border.

When asked if he was comfortable with Israel launching a limited ground operation, Biden said, “I’m comfortable with them stopping. We need a ceasefire now.”

Once again, Israel ignored the president, and on September 30, Arab media reported that IDF tanks had entered multiple villages in Lebanon after warnings had been issued for residents to leave. Similarly, residents of Beirut suburbs were advised to evacuate.

According to the Jerusalem Post, the ground operation will seek to eliminate the ability of the Radwan forces to invade Israel. Previously, the IDF had been reluctant to enter Lebanon because of the fear of retaliation by Hezbollah with its enormous missile inventory. That did not happen in the three days after the assassination of Nasrallah, which gave the military greater confidence that the IAF had been more successful than expected in destroying the arsenal.

The disruption of Hezbollah’s communication network and decapitation of its leadership had at least temporarily inhibited the group’s ability to respond. The situation could change, but the expected threats to Tel Aviv, Haifa, and critical infrastructure failed to materialize because Israeli officials speculated they had so severely damaged the group’s command-and-control structure that no senior commanders were left to give orders to fire the longer-range missiles.

Israel believed it had destroyed about half of Hezbollah’s missiles by the end of September, but that still meant it could have 75,000 or more left. 

The assassination of Nasrallah also spread mistrust between Tehran and Hezbollah and set off a mole hunt in Tehran to determine who in the Revolutionary Guards helped Israel track his movements. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who reportedly told Nasrallah to leave Lebanon days before his assassination, was moved to a secret location out of fear Israel might target him. Hezbollah also was hesitant to name a new leader for the same reason.

On October 2, Israel suffered its first casualties in Lebanon when eight soldiers were killed. Ground troops began sweeping through southern Lebanon, and more forces were being called up and deployed. The IAF launched hundreds of strikes against targets in and around Beirut along with the southern regions, hitting missile launchers and arms depots. Determined to prevent Hezbollah from reconstituting its leadership, an airstrike on October 3 killed Hashem Safieddine, the head of Hezbollah’s Executive Council, who was identified as the potential successor to Nasrallah. Several newly appointed Hezbollah commanders and Esmail Qaani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force, were also killed in the hit on a bunker in Beirut. The same day, Khider al-Shaebia, who orchestrated the July rocket attack on Majdal Shams that killed 12 children and teenagers, was also killed.

Degrading Infrastructure

The IDF located and neutralized a tunnel that crossed from Lebanon into Israel near Moshav Zerait. This tunnel was discovered months before, but the information was kept secret so the IDF could ambush Hezbollah if they used it. The army also sent a fourth division into fight as the ground campaign expanded, though it said it intended to end the war as quickly as possible.

Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem, one of the last surviving members of the group’s top leadership, declared, “Our capabilities are fine, and our fighters are deployed along the frontlines.” 

As if to prove the boast, Hezbollah fired more than 100 rockets at Haifa on October 8. Most were intercepted, but seven homes were hit, and one person was wounded by shrapnel.

Still, Qassem said Hezbollah was prepared to allow Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri to negotiate a ceasefire. It was the first time no mention was made of tying its actions to an end in the fighting in Gaza.

While Qassem spoke from an undisclosed location, Israel continued to target his comrades. The IDF announced that it killed the head of Hezbollah’s logistical headquarters, Suhail Hussein Husseini, in an airstrike on Beirut. Husseini, a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council, participated in weapon transfers between Hezbollah and Iran and was responsible for distributing the advanced weaponry among Hezbollah’s units.

On October 4, the United States announced it was providing $157 million to address humanitarian needs in Lebanon.

Iran was also stepping up its assistance to Hezbollah. It was increasing efforts to transfer weapons from Syria and Iraq, sending military advisers to help restore order and command structures, and helping to investigate how Israeli intelligence so successfully penetrated the organization.

In the deadliest attack of the war, a drone struck the dining hall at a military base near Binyamina on October 13, killing four soldiers and injuring 67. Two drones heading from the sea were tracked by Israeli radar, and one was shot down off the coast north of Haifa. Sirens sounded in the western Galilee area but not in the area of the base because it was thought to have crashed after it fell off the radar.

The IAF subsequently declared its intention to wipe out Hezbollah’s drone force and kill every member of Unit 127, which is responsible for its UAV production, maintenance, and operation.

Israel and the international community were again at loggerheads after several UNIFIL peacekeepers were injured by IDF fire. Israel had told UNIFIL to withdraw from the area, but the UN ordered it to remain in place. “The IDF has repeatedly asked for this, and has been met with repeated refusals, all aimed at providing a human shield to Hezbollah terrorists,” Netanyahu said.

Meanwhile, the IDF was discovering weapons and tunnels close to UNIFIL positions and said Hezbollah forces were firing from locations near UNIFIL forces. Terrorists captured by the IDF told interrogators that Hezbollah paid UNIFIL personnel to use their positions and took control of the peacekeepers’s cameras to watch the Israeli border.

A former soldier from the United Nations Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO) responsible for reporting violations of Resolution 1701 said in an interview, “We were totally subject to Hezbollah. We clearly had limited freedom of movement. For example, we never operated after dark for fear of Hezbollah. So they had free time in the evening and night hours.” He added that Hezbollah confiscated their devices when they tried to collect evidence and prevented them from entering certain areas. “They didn’t want us to see what they were doing.”

“We reported daily violations of resolution 1701 to our superiors, including in particular restrictions on our freedom of movement, and we were instructed to report all violations regardless of number. But nothing ever happened,” he said. “We did not hear back from them, and nothing was initiated. It was wildly frustrating, and it only confirmed to me what I had experienced in other countries I was posted to: The UN is incompetent.”

U.S. Defense Secretary Austin expressed concern about the incidents, which he said “reinforced the need to pivot from military operations in Lebanon to a diplomatic pathway as soon as feasible.” 

Israel continued to expand its operations to Hezbollah strongholds in southern Beirut and the Bekaa Valley. Residents were being told, “You are located near Hezbollah facilities and interests against which the IDF will operate in the near future.”

Journalists were given a tour of Hezbollah bases found just 300 yards from the Israeli border. The posts were filled with mines, ammunition, and other supplies. The New York Times correspondent said, “We saw two tunnel shafts leading to a network of hide-outs and weapons stores at least one story deep in the ground. A base used by United Nations peacekeepers was situated less than 200 yards away.”

Gen. Yiftach Norkin told reporters the quantity and quality of the weaponry combined with the proximity to Israel were indications of preparations for the long-threatened invasion of the Galilee. A platoon commander said within less than half a square mile, the IDF had found about 100 sites with tunnel shafts, weapons caches, internet cables, water stores, and supplies, including thermal scopes, blood bags for transfusions, and medical kits marked “Made in Iran.” In a separate interview with Le Figaro, Netanyahu said the IDF also found state-of-the-art Russian weapons.

Amid the Israeli criticism of UNIFIL, the German defense ministry said a German warship participating in UNIFIL’s mission shot down a drone off the coast of Lebanon on October 17. 

The IDF said in late October it had killed more than 2,000 Hezbollah fighters, 1,200 since the ground campaign began. It also estimated that it destroyed about 80% of its rockets, leaving it with about 30,000.

According to the IDF spokesperson, Nasrallah had an emergency bunker underneath the Al-Sahel Hospital in Dahieh in southern Beirut. This bunker was the group’s central money repository, holding gold and half a billion dollars in cash. Much of the money was stolen from Lebanese citizens.

Israel said it would not strike the hospital, but it was bombing branches of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a U.S.-sanctioned bank that “illicitly moves funds through shell accounts and facilitators, exposing Lebanese financial institutions to possible sanctions.” An Israeli official told reporters: “The main objective is to affect the trust between Hezbollah and a lot of the Shiite community that uses this association as a banking system.” The official also said the strike targeted “the ability of Hezbollah to function both during the war but also afterwards to rebuild and to rearm the organization on the day after.”

A drone fired from Lebanon hit the bedroom window of Netanyahu’s home in Caesarea on October 19, 2024, in an apparent assassination attempt. The Netanyahus were not home, and no one was injured. Hezbollah took credit, but Israel blamed Iran. Netanyahu vowed that anyone who harmed Israelis would pay “a heavy price.”

On October 28, Hezbollah announced that Naim Qassem, its longtime deputy leader, would replace Nasrallah as secretary general. His intention to continue the same policy was apparent in his statement before his appointment. “We will confront any possibility, and we are ready if the Israelis decide to enter by land,” he said. “The forces of the resistance are ready for a ground engagement.”

Israel continued to pummel Hezbollah targets. The IDF said it had struck 54 sites used to store drones, 24 sites used to store cruise missiles, eight sites where drones and cruise missiles were assembled, six underground sites, and seven weapons depots.

In a series of rocket barrages on October 31, an Israeli farmer and four foreign workers were killed in an agricultural field near Metullah. Two days earlier, a man was killed and 13 others wounded in Ma’alot-Tarshiha.

Israel was criticized when the IDF injured UNIFIL soldiers, but the response was more muted after a Hezbollah rocket hit UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura, wounding eight Austrian UNIFIL troops.

Meanwhile, the United States desperately pushed for a ceasefire, hoping to succeed in time for President Biden to take credit for the achievement. Hochstein reportedly asked Lebanon for a unilateral ceasefire that would allow him to put pressure on Israel; Lebanon refused. Meanwhile, Israel approached Russia to guarantee that no arms will be smuggled from Syria into Lebanon.

On November 2, Shayetet 13 captured a senior Hezbollah naval officer, Imad Amhaz, in Batroun, northern Lebanon. He was believed to have significant knowledge about the group’s naval operations. The following day, an Iranian operative, Soleiman al-Assi, was captured from Syria. The IDF said he had information on Iranian activities near the Golan Heights.

The Lebanese National Agency reported that more than 37 villages were wiped out, and more than 40,000 housing units were destroyed.

On November 6, a volley of rockets was fired into central Israel, with one landing in the parking lot of Ben-Gurion Airport. No injuries were reported. Israel responded by striking a site linked to Hezbollah near the runways of Beirut airport.

New Leader, Same Policy

Qassem showed no softening of Hezbollah’s position when he declared the war would only stop when Israel ended its “aggression.” He said Hezbollah was prepared for a long war of attrition. “We have tens of thousands of trained resistance jihadi combatants that are ready to die as martyrs.” Like Hamas leaders, Qassem dismissed concerns over civilian suffering as the “price to pay for victory.”

A few days later, amid reports of progress in ceasefire negotiations, Hezbollah spokesman Mohamad Afif said the group had “enough weapons, equipment and supplies for a long battle” with Israel.

The IDF said it had killed more than 2,550 Hezbollah terrorists and wounded more than 5,000. Salim Ayish, a senior Hezbollah operative implicated in the 2005 assassination of Lebanese PM Rafiq al-Hariri, was killed in an airstrike in Al-Qusayr in Western Syria.

The IDF also said it had destroyed about 80% of Hezbollah’s medium-range rockets (with a 25-mile range), leaving it with fewer than 1,000 left. Of its roughly 44,000 short-range rockets, fewer than 10,000 remain, and all but about 100 precision-guided missiles have been neutralized.

The entrance of a tunnel about a mile from the Israeli border was found in a cemetery. Command and control rooms, sleeping quarters, and weapon caches were stored inside the tunnel.

BICOM described the deal in the works as a win for all parties:

• The U.S. gets the end of the war it has sought. 
• The Israeli military can withdraw, and citizens can return to their homes in the north.
• Hezbollah survives without being destroyed.
• Iran gets to keep Hezbollah as a proxy, albeit in a substantially reduced capacity.             
• In return for Russia ensuring that no more weapons are transferred from Syria into Lebanon, the Biden administration will exempt Russian companies operating in Syria from sanctions.

On November 17, a rocket barrage damaged a Haifa synagogue. No worshippers were present at the time, and no injuries were reported. The same day, an Israeli airstrike killed Hezbollah media relations chief Mohammed Afif. 

Contrary to fears before the war began, Hezbollah has either chosen or been unable to launch thousands of rockets at once to overwhelm Israel’s air defenses. Most of the 80-100 rockets and drones Hezbollah has fired have been intercepted or fallen in uninhabited areas. Few direct hits on structures have occurred, and many of the injuries suffered by civilians have been from fragments of interceptors or the missiles they blew up. In some cases, civilians left shelters too soon (they are advised to remain inside for at least ten minutes). Most homes in Israeli Arab towns do not have shelters, which is a reason for some of their casualties. 

Rather than increasing the number of launches, Hezbollah began using heavier rockets and missiles with greater destructive power. Tal Beeri and Boaz Shapira suggested, “This escalation is aimed at creating a psychological impact and achieving a perceived victory by causing more substantial damage—both in terms of property and human casualties.”

Hezbollah Rocket Inventory

On November 20, the United States vetoed a Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire because it did not make the release of hostages a precondition for a truce.

Meanwhile, Israel continued waves of airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and southern Lebanon. By mid-November, the IDF had effectively cleared most of the villages closest to Israel and expanded ground operations to the “second line” of villages within five miles of the border. The IDF destroyed any house that had been used by Hezbollah but left untouched those where no weapons were found.

“Our task is to make sure that there is no ammunition left and no enemy infrastructure left in the area so that in the end, it allows the political echelon to return the residents to the Galilee and the north,” Lt. Col. Roi Katz told the press. He added that it would now be “impossible” for Hezbollah “to enter and raid the territory of the State of Israel and attack the citizens of the Galilee with ease.”

Still, Hezbollah was bombarding Israel with some 100 rockets a day.

One rocket hit a UNIFIL post, injuring four Italian observers and prompting a complaint from the Italian government.

Ceasefire

On November 26, 2024, a ceasefire in south Lebanon was brokered, with the agreement set to take effect at 4:00 am (Israel time) the following day. This ceasefire established a 60-day truce, marking a significant temporary de-escalation in hostilities between Lebanon and Israel. The primary condition of the agreement was that the IDF would withdraw from southern Lebanon by the end of the 60 days. In return, Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group, is required to pull back beyond the Litani River, which has historically served as a geographical boundary. This provision aims to reduce Hezbollah’s influence in the area and lower the risk of further military provocations between the two sides.

Approximate Ceasefire Lines

During the truce, the Lebanese army will deploy into southern Lebanon to assume control of the area. At the same time, UNIFIL will be significantly reinforced to monitor and enforce the ceasefire. International forces, including British, German, and French troops, will participate in this enhanced UNIFIL presence. This international reinforcement is designed to prevent Hezbollah from re-establishing itself in the region and to ensure stability. On November 29, 2024, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that Major General Jasper Jeffers (SOCCENT) and Amos Hochstein, Senior Advisor to the President, will co-chair a U.S.-led mechanism to monitor and implement the Israel-Lebanon cessation of hostilities. The group includes the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), UNIFIL, and France. 

One of the critical aspects of the ceasefire is creating a robust enforcement mechanism involving international partners. Should Hezbollah violate the terms of the truce by rearming itself, operating south of the Litani River, or engaging in other hostile actions, Israel retains the right to take military action. 

While the ceasefire temporarily relieved residents of northern Israel, it did not immediately allow them to return to their homes. The Israeli government continued providing financial support, in the form of stipends, to those who had been evacuated due to the ongoing conflict. Whether residents can safely return will depend on the security situation and the effectiveness of the ceasefire.

The ceasefire agreement included a “side document” in the form of an official U.S. letter that ensured Israel’s security interests by providing guarantees. These included allowing Israel to target Hezbollah operatives, prevent attempts to rearm the group and address regional threats. The letter outlined commitments such as intelligence-sharing on violations, including Hezbollah’s infiltration into the Lebanese army and authorizing the U.S. to share relevant information with the Lebanese government. The U.S. further pledged to cooperate with Israel to counter Iran’s destabilizing activities in Lebanon, including arms transfers and support for proxies. Affirming Israel’s right to self-defense under international law, the U.S. recognized its right to act against threats from Lebanese territory if Lebanon failed to address them. Israel, in turn, committed to using its air operations over Lebanon strictly for surveillance, avoiding undue disruption like breaking the sound barrier.

Several political and strategic considerations influence the timing of the ceasefire deal. There was concern that the United Nations Security Council might impose a unilateral ceasefire on Israel, forcing it to halt its actions in southern Lebanon without Israel’s agreement. By negotiating the terms of the truce, Israel ensures that it retains control over the situation. Another factor in the timing of the ceasefire is the upcoming change in U.S. leadership. The 60-day period allows Israel to reassess the situation with a new administration in the U.S. taking office, which could bring shifts in diplomatic priorities and strategies.

The ceasefire is not meant to be a permanent solution or the end of the conflict. Instead, it is a temporary measure that will be evaluated based on the situation. It allows Israel to regroup and prepare for potential future confrontations if necessary. The terms of the ceasefire will be closely monitored, and any violations will prompt Israel to respond to ensure its security and the stability of the region.

In his public statement about the ceasefire, Netanyahu outlined three reasons for the truce with Lebanon. First, he emphasized the importance of focusing on the Iranian threat, explaining that the ceasefire would allow Israel to shift its attention to Iran’s threats to the region. By addressing this threat, Israel hopes to strengthen its security posture in the face of broader regional instability. Second, Netanyahu highlighted the need for arming and regrouping, noting that the ceasefire would allow the IDF to reorganize, rearm, and assess the situation. This would enable Israel to ensure its readiness for any future military actions, if necessary, after the 60-day truce period. Finally, Netanyahu mentioned the strategic objective of separating the fronts and isolating Hamas. By securing a ceasefire with Hezbollah, Israel could reduce the multi-front war and focus its efforts on Hamas. This would help isolate Hamas, weakening its position and limiting its potential support from other regional players, thus diminishing its operational capabilities. Outside Gaza, IDF troops, particularly reservists, would also get a much-needed respite and be spared further casualties. 

In a statement following the brokering of the ceasefire, President Biden highlighted the U.S. role in facilitating the agreement, reaffirmed Israel’s right to self-defense, and stressed the importance of supporting Lebanon’s sovereignty. He also outlined a broader vision for Middle East peace, including a Palestinian state and normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. In a separate joint statement, Presidents Biden and Macron announced the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, praising the agreement. They committed to working with both countries to ensure the ceasefire is fully implemented and emphasized efforts to support capacity-building in Lebanon to promote regional stability and prosperity.

Israel had objected to any French involvement in the negotiations until Macron withdrew his commitment to enforce the International Criminal Court arrest warrant against Netanyahu.

Biden Applies Pressure

Israel claimed the Biden administration threatened to block further weapons deliveries and said it would not veto another UN ceasefire resolution. U.S. officials denied this. Nevertheless, after agreeing to the ceasefire, Netanyahu noted the arms issue was resolved. The administration subsequently announced a $680 million arms sale to replenish the precision weapons depleted during the war. Israel Hayom reported that Israel would also receive previously restricted weapons systems and components that would substantially improve its strike capabilities. 

The Israeli national security cabinet officially approved the ceasefire by a vote of 10 ministers to one. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir was the lone holdout. He was not the only Israeli to have qualms about the agreement. Others feared Hezbollah would use the time to rebuild with Iran’s help and that the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL would be unable and unwilling to enforce the ceasefire as was the case following the ceasefire to end the Second Lebanon War in 2006. Senior IDF officials were also skeptical. One source told the Jerusalem Post, “No one is counting on the Lebanese army to destroy Hezbollah’s terror houses and outposts in place of the IDF.” The fear, according to the Post, was that “failing to eliminate the terror infrastructure created for the Radwan Force’s planned raid on the Galilee would allow Hezbollah to quickly rebuild its capabilities.”

The IDF struck over 12,500 targets, killing as many as 3,500 Hezbollah fighters and capturing some 12,000 explosive devices and drones; 13,000 rockets, launchers, and anti-tank and anti-aircraft missile systems; and 121,000 pieces of communications equipment and computers. It also began constructing a new triple-layered fence with sensors and an observation system to deter and monitor activity near the northern border.

Even with most of its leaders and hundreds of fighters dead, its command centers destroyed, and most of its forces in retreat beyond the Litani River, Nasrallah’s son and successor declared victory for Hezbollah. Muhammad Mahdi Nasrallah praised Allah for allowing his family to stay in “Lebanon until the victory was declared,” while Naim Qassem asserted Hezbollah had stood firm and prevented Israeli residents from returning to their homes in the north. “We won,” Qassem said, “because we prevented the enemy from destroying Hezbollah, stopped them from ending the resistance, and defeated them because the enemy was forced to justify the agreement.” 

The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is under strain, with France and the United States accusing Israel of violations. France reported 52 Israeli incidents, including drone flights over Beirut and attacks causing civilian deaths, criticizing Israel for bypassing the international monitoring committee. Israel defended its actions, citing Hezbollah violations that required an immediate response and insisting aerial surveillance operations over Lebanese airspace would continue to enforce the ceasefire agreement. U.S. officials, including Amos Hochstein, who brokered the deal, also warned Israel about the ceasefire breaches, particularly the return of drones to Lebanese airspace.

Tensions escalated when, on December 2, 2024, Hezbollah fired mortars at Mount Dov, claiming retaliation for Israeli enforcement actions. The IDF responded by attacking Hezbollah operatives and 20 rocket launchers throughout Lebanon, with senior officials warning that failing to act could lead to prolonged conflict. Both Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz pledged a substantial response to Hezbollah violations, while opposition leaders criticized the ceasefire as ineffective. 

The day before, Israel intercepted an Iranian plane traveling to Syria that it suspected of carrying arms for Hezbollah, forcing it to turn around. Israel also warned Iran not to try to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah while coming to the aid of the Assad regime as it fights off a new rebel onslaught.

Despite violations of the ceasefire, Northern Command chief Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin told the mayors of Israel’s displaced northern communities they could begin rebuilding the towns damaged by Hezbollah’s attacks in the prior 14 months. Some residents were beginning to go to their homes. Assuming the ceasefire held, the majority were expected to return on February 1, 2025.

Three weeks into the ceasefire, Israeli troops were still carrying out operations when terrorists or their arsenals were located. One division had reached the Litani River and was continuing to destroy Hezbollah strongholds and collect weapons. Several dozen terrorists were also killed trying to sneak into southern Lebanon or carry out an attack. At the end of December, the IDF displayed some of the more than 10,000 weapons it captured in over 30 villages in southern Lebanon. They included 6,840 RPG rockets and anti-tank missiles, including 340 Russian-made Kornets, along with their launchers; 9,000 explosive devices and grenades; 2,250 unguided rockets and mortars; 2,700 assault rifles; 2,860 other guns, including sniper rifles; 60 anti-aircraft missiles; 60,800 pieces of electronic equipment, communication devices, computers, and documents; and 300 pieces of surveillance equipment.

Israel committed to fully withdrawing from Lebanon by January 26, 2025; however, the IDF said it might have to stay longer because the Lebanese army was not deploying quickly enough to take control of areas their troops planned to leave. Mahmoud Qamati, a member of parliament from Hezbollah, issued a threat: “We are committed to patience for 60 days, but on the 61st day, the situation will change if enemy forces remain anywhere in southern Lebanon, and we will deal with them as occupying forces. The resistance is present, ready, and strong. Let America and France understand that our red lines will not be violated and that we are ready for all possibilities.” 

Israel ignored the threat and continued operations. In one village on the ridge above Rosh Hanikra and Kibbutz Rosh Hanikra and adjacent to the main UNIFIL headquarters in southern Lebanon, the IDF found “unbelievable quantities of arms. There were warehouses, lookout points and military equipment in virtually every home.” One soldier said, “We found ready launchers and weapons and ammunition hidden among the trees, hidden in a formation aimed directly at Israel… The rocket launchers were positioned close to the trees and under the branches; if we hadn't physically entered, we wouldn’t have spotted them, either from the air or when driving by. We really had to enter the area and scour it; the closer we got to the UN headquarters and to Israel, you found more arms because it was closer to Israel. It felt like the UN was covering for them.”

After ringing in the new year, the IDF continued to find underground tunnels, headquarters, arms warehouses, loaded launchers, and trucks with launchers in other areas. Israel also informed the U.S. that it would not withdraw from southern Lebanon after the 60-day period stipulated in the ceasefire agreement. This prompted a renewed threat from Qassem:

With the ceasefire looking more tenuous, Hochstein returned to the region and told senior Lebanese officials that either the Lebanese army would deploy 10,000 soldiers in southern Lebanon soon, or the Israeli withdrawal would be delayed by 30-60 days.

In December 2024, the Times of Israel reported that U.S. intelligence assessments before Israel launched its ground operation in Lebanon envisioned “an all-out war in which hundreds — if not thousands — of Israelis would be killed.” American officials said this was consistent with the opinion of Israeli intelligence. “There’s a narrative out there that [Israel’s major offensive against Hezbollah] would have happened a lot earlier if the Americans hadn’t applied pressure on Israel and prevented it. That’s not what happened. Everybody was very concerned on both sides about what this would look like and how severe it would be,” a U.S. official told TOI.

Both appraisals proved “wildly inaccurate.”

“Ultimately, they moved forward anyway, but it wasn’t under the assumption that it wouldn’t come at a major cost. The Israelis just believed that this cost was necessary,” the U.S. official added.

By the end of 2024, Israel had been attacked by some 15,400 rockets. Due to the fighting, 55,104 acres of land were burned.

As the time for Israel’s withdrawal approached, Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers, head of the international oversight committee monitoring the ceasefire, reportedly agreed to Israel’s proposal to establish military outposts on three strategic uninhabited hills inside Lebanon overlooking southern areas previously used by Hezbollah.

UNIFIL appeared to be doing a better job than in the past of fulfilling its mission following the ceasefire. In the first two months, for example, peacekeepers discovered more than “100 weapons caches” belonging to Hezbollah and its allies.

Lebanon Elects a President

Another hopeful sign was the election of Joseph Aoun as president of Lebanon on January 9, 2025. Aoun had led the LAF, and his ascension, along with the designation of International Court of Justice chief Nawaf Salam as prime minister, was viewed as an indication of Hezbollah and Iran’s loss of influence. Aoun vowed to uphold the Lebanese government’s monopoly on the right to bear arms, that is, to keep them out of the hands of the terrorists and to restore Lebanon’s sovereignty. 

Israel had said that it would likely stay in Lebanon beyond the date agreed upon for its withdrawal because it had not completed clearing the area of Hezbollah assets, and the Lebanese army had not deployed quickly enough to replace IDF troops. Biden had reportedly considered granting Israel an additional 30 days; however, President-elect Donald Trump quashed that idea by demanding that Israel withdraw in accordance with the ceasefire deal on January 26, 2025.

On January 24, 2025, Israel announced it would not entirely withdraw its forces from Lebanon by January 26, the 60-day goal outlined in the ceasefire with Beirut, citing the Lebanese Army’s failure to deploy effectively in southern Lebanon as required under the agreement. The withdrawal is conditional on Hezbollah retreating beyond the Litani River and Lebanon’s full ceasefire enforcement. Ongoing IDF operations in Lebanon have uncovered and dismantled Hezbollah weapons caches, tunnels, and attack platforms near the border. Coordinated with the U.S., discussions are underway to extend the withdrawal deadline. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that Israel will prioritize its citizens’ safety and ensure the conflict’s objectives are met before completing the withdrawal. 

On January 26, 2025, the White House announced an extension for Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon, moving the deadline to February 18. Additionally, the governments of Lebanon, Israel, and the United States will begin negotiations to secure the return of Lebanese prisoners captured after October 7, 2023.

On January 27, 2025, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem declared in a televised address that the group would not tolerate any extension of the 60-day deadline for Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon. He emphasized that Israel must withdraw immediately as the agreed-upon period had expired, rejecting any justifications for delays.

On January 28, 2025, a UAV attack occurred in the Nabatieh area of southern Lebanon, resulting in seven casualties, a large fire, and billowing smoke. The Al-Mayadeen channel, which is affiliated with Hezbollah, reported that an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was used in the attack. The Lebanese army also claimed that the IDF opened fire on military personnel and civilians on the Yaron-Maroun al-Ras road, injuring a soldier and three civilians who were escorting residents returning to the villages in the south. Previously, Lebanese rioters acted under the influence of Hezbollah, and the IDF fired at the rioters, resulting in the deaths of 22 people, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health.

On January 31, 2025, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted strikes against Hezbollah targets in the village of Janta in eastern Lebanon, near the Syrian border. These strikes targeted infrastructure used for smuggling weapons from Syria into Lebanon and a site with underground infrastructure for developing and manufacturing weapons. The strikes followed a breach of the ceasefire agreement by Hezbollah, who sent a surveillance drone into Israeli territory, which the IAF then intercepted. According to the Lebanese health ministry, two people were killed in the strikes. The Israeli military has stated that no terrorist activity would be accepted and that Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon to protect Israeli interests.

On February 2, 2025, Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israel will not tolerate drone launches from Lebanon, suggesting that either the drone threats will cease or Hezbollah will be eliminated. This statement was made during a visit to an IDF position in Lebanon. Katz also cautioned the future leaders of Hezbollah not to underestimate Israel’s resolve, referencing the recent deaths of previous leaders. 

Israel was also growing increasingly concerned with collusion between the LAF and Hezbollah and Iranians smuggling tens of millions of dollars of cash to its proxy through the Beirut airport.

Breaking his silence since leaving the government, former Defense Minister Gallant said in an interview that Netanyahu’s rejection of his plan to attack Hezbollah on October 11, 2023, was “the greatest security missed opportunity in Israeli history, not just of this war.” Contradicting Gallant Mossad chief David Barnea defended the decision to wait. There were “ten times as many beepers” in Hezbollah hands when they were detonated on September 17 than at the beginning of the war, he said, “and two times as many walkie-talkies were detonated.”

On February 7, 2025, a week and a half before the ceasefire extension on the northern border expires, U.S. Deputy Middle East Peace Envoy Morgan Ortagus met with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. She stated that “Hezbollah will not be able to terrorize the Lebanese people”, that “Israel defeated Hezbollah,” and asserted that Hezbollah must not be part of the next Lebanese government. The following day, Lebanon formed its first full-fledged government since 2022. After the U.S. opposition, Hezbollah’s influence was limited but not completely diminished. Hezbollah’s ally, Amal, secured five cabinet seats, preventing the group from obtaining veto power. Washington welcomed the government’s formation, hoping it would rebuild state institutions.

On February 11, 2025, it was reported that Prime Minister Netanyahu asked President Trump to support another extension to February 28, arguing that an IDF presence at key border points is necessary to prevent Hezbollah’s resurgence. Israel claims the Lebanese Army has failed to meet ceasefire obligations by not effectively deploying in the south or curbing Hezbollah’s activities. The United States reportedly denied Israel’s request and Washington insisted Israel stick to the February 18 deadline.

Nevertheless, the Israeli government appeared confident that it had achieved the goal of making it safe for residents to return to their homes in the north. After nearly 18 months, the military said evacuees could go home starting March 1. Some local leaders and residents were unhappy because the government had not yet helped rebuild homes that were destroyed by Hezbollah rockets. Concerns were also raised over the replacement of IDF forces with the Lebanese army in areas near kibbutzim along the border. Wariness is also attributed to the lack of a political agreement to ensure the long-term security of the North. Hezbollah was receiving money from Iran and trying to rebuild its military capabilities.

Meanwhile, Syrian authorities accused Hezbollah of sponsoring smuggling gangs, and Israel carried out airstrikes on Hezbollah targets, including a key arms-smuggling tunnel.

On February 13, 2025, an Iranian Mahan Air flight to Lebanon, suspected of carrying millions in cash for Hezbollah, was grounded in Tehran following an Israeli warning. Israel, supported by the U.S., threatened to act against civilian flights transferring Iranian funds to Hezbollah, raising concerns that Beirut’s airport could become a target. Lebanon denied landing rights to the flight, which sparked protests by Hezbollah supporters and diplomatic tensions with Iran. Iran condemned Israel’s actions as violations of international law and Lebanon’s sovereignty. The following day, the Lebanese army reported that protests, including acts of violence and vandalism, occurred in several areas, especially around Rafic Hariri International Airport. These incidents involve assaults on military personnel, attacks on UNIFIL vehicles, and attempts to block the airport road. The Lebanese army said it would take firm action to preserve civil peace and arrest those disturbing public order. UNIFIL later confirmed that a convoy taking peacekeepers to Beirut airport was violently attacked. A car was set on fire, and UNIFIL’s outgoing Deputy Force Commander was injured. UNIFIL demanded an investigation by Lebanese authorities. The U.S. condemned the attack and commended the swift response of the Lebanese army to prevent further violence and take measures to hold the attackers accountable for their actions. On February 15, Lebanon reportedly arrested more than 25 people linked to the incident.

The IDF confirmed carrying out an airstrike in southern Lebanon on February 15, 2025, killing Abbas Ahmad Hamoud, a senior operative in Hezbollah’s aerial forces responsible for recent drone launches against Israel in violation of the ceasefire. Defense Minister Israel Katz praised the strike, warning that Hezbollah’s use of drones would not be tolerated, stating, “If there are drones, there will be no Hezbollah.” The IDF accused Hamoud of repeatedly breaching the ceasefire by launching surveillance and explosive-laden drones as part of Hezbollah’s Unit 127. Lebanese media reported that two people were killed in the strike.

On February 16, 2025, Lebanon told Iran that flights between Tehran and Beirut would remain suspended until February 18, aligning with the expected completion of Israel’s military withdrawal. The suspension was extended, however, after the U.S. warned Beirut that Israel might shoot the planes down. According to Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, Turkey is also cooperating with Iran to smuggle money into Lebanon.

Israel Withdraws

On February 18, 2025, the IDF began withdrawing from southern Lebanon. Despite objections from the Lebanese government, Israel insisted on maintaining a more significant defensive presence along the border, with five military outposts remaining indefinitely. These outposts, staffed by company-sized units, are intended to prevent Hezbollah from re-establishing a foothold, given the Lebanese Army’s limited effectiveness in enforcing the ceasefire terms. Despite Hezbollah’s threats, Israel believes these positions are strategically necessary to minimize conflict with the broader Lebanese public while maintaining an aggressive posture against Hezbollah incursions and arms smuggling.

According to the Times of Israel, these are the locations of the outposts:

• Al-Labouna Outpost – The westernmost outpost, located on the ridge above Shlomi. It is intended to control the hills overlooking Western Galilee.
• Jabal Balat Outpost – Situated above Zar’it. Known to veterans of the Lebanon War and the subsequent years as “Karkum Outpost.” It will protect the area around Shtula and Zar’it.
• Jabal al-Deir Outpost – Overlooking Avivim and Malkia. It dominates the area of Bint Jbeil, Maroun al-Ras, and Wadi Saluki – names well-remembered by Israelis who fought in previous Lebanon wars, carrying both traumatic memories and explosive devices.
• Markaba-Khulta Outpost – High above Margaliot in the Galilee Panhandle.
• Al-Hamas Outpost – The northernmost and easternmost outpost protects Metula and overlooks the Lebanese towns of al-Khiam and Kila from above.

Approximate locations of the five IDF outposts

The IDF has improved intelligence efforts to differentiate between civilians and militants and is coordinating with the U.S. to monitor Hezbollah’s actions. Additionally, the military has primarily cleared the border area of Hezbollah weapons and hopes to facilitate the return of northern Israeli residents by March 2. 

Israel said the Lebanese Army was doing a better job than in the past, but still was “limited and insufficient.” Hence, in addition to the outposts on Lebanese soil, Israel has significantly increased its military deployment to defend the northern border.

On the same day, the IDF reported that its forces struck Hezbollah operatives after they were identified operating at a site for the production and storage of the terrorist organization’s strategic weapons in the Beqaa region.

The ceasefire has also not prevented Israel from targeting terrorists. The IAF eliminated Mahran Ali Nasser Al-Din, a key figure in Hezbollah’s Unit 4400 responsible for smuggling weapons into Lebanon, Mohammed Mahdi Ali Shaheen, a key member of Hezbollah’s Geographical Unit, and Khadir Sa’id Hashem, the Radwan forces’ naval chief. 

On February 28, 2025, Lebanese authorities at Beirut airport seized $2.5 million in cash hidden by a traveler from Turkey, reportedly intended for Hezbollah, marking the first known seizure of its kind, according to sources. 

Though Israel maintains that Hezbollah infiltrates the Lebanese army, the Trump administration believes it can play a vital role in weakening Hezbollah and ensuring the ceasefire holds. To assist, the State Department unfroze $95 million in funding for Lebanese forces.

On March 7, 2025, the IDF launched airstrikes in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah military sites and operatives, as well as suspects acting against Israeli forces. The IDF struck a Hezbollah operative involved in rebuilding terror infrastructure and the army sites storing weapons and rocket launchers. 

Peace Talks Begin

Representatives from Israel, Lebanon, the U.S., and France met on March 11, 2025, in Naqoura, just on the Lebanese side of the Israel-Lebanon border, to begin negotiations to resolve disputes and prevent renewed conflict. Led by U.S. Deputy Middle East Envoy Morgan Ortagus, the talks were framed as “military to military” to avoid accusations of Lebanese normalization with Israel. As a goodwill gesture, Israel agreed to release five Lebanese detainees.

Lebanese President Aoun has signaled a shift away from Iranian influence, aligning more with Saudi Arabia and the Arab consensus. During his first foreign visit as President to the kingdom he had said, “When one occupies Beirut, destroys Damascus, threatens Amman, makes Baghdad suffer or takes Sanaa ... it is impossible for anyone to claim that this serves Palestine.” He continued, still without naming Iran, “Lebanon has suffered a lot, but it has learned from its sufferings.”

Moving forward, three U.S.-led working groups will address border disputes, prisoner issues, and Israeli outposts in Lebanon, aiming for a long-term agreement beyond past ceasefires.

Meanwhile, the situation on the ground was far from peaceful. On March 22, Hezbollah launched six rockets, the first attack since December 2024. Air defenses intercepted three projectiles that crossed the border, while the other three rockets fell short in Lebanon. Israel responded in the following days with strikes on Hezbollah targets and targeted assassinations, including a drone hit that killed Hassan Kamal Halawi, the chief of Hezbollah’s anti-tank missile unit in southern Lebanon.

After one of the rockets was directed at Metula, Defense Minister Israel Katz said, “Metula will be treated the same as Beirut.” The U.S. then made it clear that they were opposed to escalation and asked Israel not to attack Beirut or critical infrastructure.

Two rockets were fired at northern Israel from Lebanon on March 28, prompting the IDF to carry out strikes in southern Lebanon and targeting a drone storage facility in Beirut, a first raid on the capital since the November ceasefire went into effect. Hezbollah denied it was responsible for the rockets, and Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called on the military to “uncover those behind the irresponsible rocket fire that threatens Lebanon’s stability and security,” and arrest them.

Yedioth Ahronoth reported that President Trump advised Netanyahu not to target Beirut’s capital or critical infrastructure, including the airport, port, and electricity company.

Israel struck Beirut a second time on April 1 in a targeted killing of Hassan Bdair, a member of Hezbollah’s Unit 3900 and the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The following day, Defense Minister Israel Katz affirmed that the IDF would indefinitely maintain its presence at five strategic military positions along the Lebanese border despite a February deadline for withdrawal under a ceasefire agreement. The positions, including the “Margaliot Defender” post near Markaba, aim to protect Israeli border communities and deter Hezbollah, which has continued attacks since the ceasefire began in November. Katz emphasized that Israel’s continued presence is necessary due to Hezbollah’s failure to withdraw north of the Litani River and disarm, as required by the agreement. Katz, asserting U.S. support for Israel’s actions, warned of forceful retaliation for any attack, including strikes on Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut.

A Saudi news outlet reported that Hezbollah was using Beirut’s seaport to smuggle weapons into Lebanon.

In a potentially significant shift, a Hezbollah official indicated in mid-April that the group would consider disarming—something long thought unthinkable—if Israel fully withdrew from Lebanese territory. Under the terms of the ceasefire agreement, the Lebanese government is obligated to dismantle all Hezbollah military infrastructure and seize weapons, beginning with areas south of the Litani River. President Aoun acknowledged that the government lacks the power to disarm Hezbollah forcibly and expressed hope for a negotiated agreement. Meanwhile, anti-Hezbollah members of parliament called for a firm disarmament timeline, with one MP proposing a six-month deadline.

“It’s clear that Hezbollah has to be disarmed, and it’s clear that Israel is not going to accept terrorists shooting at them, into their country, and that’s a position we understand,” U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagus said.

Meanwhile, the Lebanese Army was said to have nearly completed dismantling Hezbollah’s infrastructure south of the river and, for the first time, was entering Hezbollah bases north of the Litani. Some 400 Hezbollah commanders reportedly were fleeing to South American countries.

The Lebanese army announced on April 20, 2025, that it successfully foiled a planned rocket attack on Israel, marking the first such prevention since a ceasefire in November halted fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Acting on intelligence, troops raided an apartment near Sidon, seized rockets and launch pads, and arrested several individuals linked to the plot. These arrests are connected to earlier detentions last week, which involved suspects – some of them Palestinian – accused of launching rockets at Israel in late March, prompting Israeli airstrikes in response.

Table of Contents for the Israel-Hamas War
Bibliography and Photo Credits

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