A second front in the war was always a possibility, given Iran’s objective of forcing Israel to fight on multiple fronts. Israel has been preparing for years for the possibility of a war in Lebanon and was on alert for any sign that Hezbollah might enter the fighting.
Hezbollah was not supposed to be a threat. The United States pressured Israel to end the Second Lebanon War in 2006 with the promise that an international force would be created to keep the peace, Hezbollah would be disarmed, and arms smuggling would be curtailed. When UN Security Council Resolution 1701 was adopted, the expectation was that the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) would enforce these objectives. UNIFIL was a total failure: the Lebanese Army failed to take control of the country, Hezbollah refused to disarm or disband and reestablished itself along the Israeli border, and with the help of Syria and Iran, smuggled weapons into Lebanon to prepare for a future war, to destroy Israel.
Hamas believed it had committed Hezbollah to attack Israel when it launched its raid on October 7, 2023. One reason that did not happen was Israeli preparations. According to the Wall Street Journal, Israel had launched planes for a preemptive strike against Hezbollah on October 11 when its intelligence indicated Hezbollah was preparing a cross-border attack. Believing they needed American support, Israeli officials informed the Biden administration of the plan. Biden’s top intelligence officials did not believe an attack was imminent from Lebanon. Hoping to avert a wider war, the president convinced Israeli Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu to call off the attack. Netanyahu denied the report.
Still, Israel prepared for war by sending troops to defend the northern border.
Starting the second day of the war, Hezbollah began launching drones and firing anti-tank missiles and mortar shells at IDF positions on the Lebanese border. Israel returned fire. On October 9, several terrorists crossed the border and were killed by Israeli forces.
Tensions continued to grow as Israel’s attacks on Gaza intensified. Hezbollah and IDF troops periodically exchanged fire along the border; one Israeli was killed and an anti-tank missile wounded three. Israel used artillery to shell the area and may have killed a Reuters videographer and injured six other journalists.
Israel ordered 22 communities along the border to evacuate and began moving troops north.
Both Iran and Hezbollah were thought to be more interested in seeing Israel bogged down and bleeding than in mounting a direct assault. Israel had warned Hezbollah before the Gaza War began that it would show no restraint if it were attacked from Lebanon. According to the Washington Institute’s Hanin Ghaddar:
The goal of Hezbollah’s current strategy seems clear: to reap the benefits of the Hamas-Israel war without losing the military presence it has steadily built up in Lebanon since 2006. Although the group believes that opening another front could temporarily overwhelm Israel per the “united front” strategy designed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), it also seems to realize that this approach would fail to defeat Israel in the long term—more likely, it would wind up destroying Hezbollah’s arsenal and weakening its forces. A full-scale war that ends without a clear victory would leave the organization with insufficient funding to restock its military or push a “victory” narrative to its core constituency in Lebanon; the leadership might not even be able to rebuild its strongholds in Beirut and the south.
Ghaddar added that Iran may be satisfied for now with having frozen the Israeli-Saudi normalization process, exposed weaknesses in Israel’s intelligence and military strength, and, through its support for Hamas, “caused serious harm inside Israel in retaliation for suspected Israeli operations inside Iran.”
While the threat from Lebanon has attracted the most attention, Israel is also concerned with the Syrian border. Iranian and Hezbollah forces have been present in Syria since the beginning of the civil war. Iran is believed to have more than 13 military bases with five divisions of troops in Syria, provoking Israel to repeatedly bomb targets in Syria to prevent a buildup of troops and weaponry.
On October 14, rockets were fired at Israel from Syria. Israel responded by bombing the airports in Damascus and Aleppo to interdict Iranian weapons shipments. Israel also began attacking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Two days later, the IDF ordered the evacuation of 28 communities within two miles of the border, and Hezbollah and the IDF exchanged fire. An anti-tank missile injured three people in Metulla on the 17th, and the IDF killed four would-be infiltrators and five other Hezbollah terrorists. On October 18, Hezbollah destroyed surveillance cameras on several Israeli army posts along the border, further ratcheting up tensions. Israel launched airstrikes in Lebanon the following night.
On October 19, 30 rockets were launched from Lebanon toward Kiryat Shemonah. They were believed to have been shot by Hamas. A father and his daughter were wounded.
Hezbollah continued to fire rockets and anti-tank missiles into Israel on October 21. The IDF returned fire. On a visit to the area, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said, “Hezbollah has decided to join the combat and is paying a price for it, and we must prepare for any possibility. Great challenges lie ahead.”
Provocations continued from both Lebanon and Syria. In response to rocket launches from Syria toward Israel on October 24, IAF fighter jets struck military infrastructure and mortar launchers belonging to the Syrian Army. The IDF has intercepted drones from Lebanon and eliminated more than 20 Hezbollah cells.
Another 14 communities near the Lebanese border were scheduled for evacuation and resettlement in state-funded guesthouses. Many residents began moving south when attacks from Lebanon escalated. An estimated 250,000 Israelis were displaced from 64 towns that were evacuated.
Hezbollah is coordinating activities with the Gaza terrorists. According to a report by Hezbollah’s al-Manar TV, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah met with the head of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ziad Nahleh, and the deputy head of Hamas’ political bureau, Saleh al-Arouri to discuss the path to “real victory.”
On October 29, the IDF destroyed several Hezbollah observation posts in southern Lebanon in response to four separate rocket and missile attacks. The IDF intercepted a surface-to-air missile that was launched from Lebanese territory on the 31st. Exchanges of fire continued daily, prompting thousands of Lebanese civilians near the border to move north.
Hamas in Lebanon fired 12 rockets at Kiryat Shemonah on November 2, wounding two people and causing widespread damage.
In a much-anticipated speech on November 3, Nasrallah denied that Hezbollah was aware of the Hamas plan or had any part in it but expressed solidarity with the Palestinians and their “martyrs.” He was vague, however, about whether Hezbollah would intensify its attacks. “Some claim Hezbollah is about to join the fray. I tell you: We have been engaged in this battle since October 8,” he said. “Some would like Hezbollah to engage in an all-out war, but I can tell you: What is happening now along the Israeli-Lebanese border is significant, and it is not the end.”
Nasrallah and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also exchanged threats. In his speech, the Hezbollah leader said, “I tell the Israelis, if you are considering carrying out a preemptive attack against Lebanon, it will be the most foolish mistake you make in your entire existence.” Israel’s prime minister responded that Israel’s “enemies in the north” should not escalate the war. “You cannot imagine how much this will cost you,” he declared.
He also accused President Joe Biden of making a “fake argument that Hamas cut off children’s heads (without) evidence.”
Violence Escalates
Violence along the border escalated after his speech, with one Israeli civilian killed by an anti-tank missile fired from Lebanon and Israel launching new airstrikes on Hezbollah targets. On November 6, 30 rockets were fired from Lebanon. There were no reports of damage or injuries, and the IAF responded with strikes on Hezbollah targets. Kiryat Shemonah continued to be bombarded, and the estimated 3,000 residents who remained after the town was evacuated were advised again to leave.
Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi said the military was “ready at any moment to go on the offense in the north.”
Undeterred, Hezbollah fired 20 rockets into Israel on November 7. IAF jets destroyed a Hezbollah weapons warehouse, rocket fire installations, and infrastructure for directing terror attacks.
Hezbollah ceased its attacks during the pause in fighting when Israel and Hamas exchanged prisoners for hostages. Once Hamas broke the ceasefire, Hezbollah resumed its attacks, which seemed to be carefully calibrated to avoid provoking a large-scale Israeli response. Rockets, mortars, and anti-tank missiles were directed at areas close to the border. Israel struck the source of the fire and, in one case, inadvertently hit an area that caused casualties to the Lebanese army. The IDF said it “regretted an incident.”
Nasrallah made another speech saying that Iran supports the “axis of resistance” (including Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, and Iraqi Shia groups). He admitted Arab states felt no compulsion to go to war with Israel but insisted they pressured the United States to call for a ceasefire.
On November 10, a drone fired from Syria hit a school in Eilat. Approximately 40 students were in the basement at the time but sustained no serious injuries. Israel responded with an airstrike targeting the group that launched the drone. Hezbollah said seven of its fighters were killed but didn’t say if it was from the Israeli attack.
On November 11, six Israeli civilians were wounded by anti-tank missiles fired from Lebanon as violence continued to escalate. The following day, eight soldiers and ten civilians (six making repairs for the Israel Electricity Corporation) were wounded by missiles. Multiple rockets were fired, four were intercepted, and the rest fell in open areas. Another 20 rockets were fired on the 13th. The IAF responded with airstrikes.
Hezbollah continued to fire at Israeli targets. On November 17, more than ten missile and mortar attacks came from Lebanon. An anti-tank missile wounded four Israelis. The IDF responded with artillery shelling and airstrikes.
Hezbollah also stepped up its attacks on northern Israel. Rather than react to each one as it did in the first weeks of the war, the IDF began to initiate operations against Hezbollah’s infrastructure. The Biden administration remained worried that the fighting would escalate to all-out war and rebuked Israel for attacks that had hit Lebanese armed forces, which the U.S. has been supporting and arming.
One reason Israel may be holding back from a major assault is that approximately 20% of Hezbollah’s rockets have landed inside Lebanon.
Those reaching Israel caused extensive damage. On December 7, an Israeli civilian was killed by an anti-tank missile fired from Lebanon.
Israel has continued its limited strikes in Lebanon and also targeted Hezbollah military sites inside Syria. The violence has escalated almost daily. On December 26, nine soldiers were wounded while helping an Israeli civilian wounded by an anti-tank missile fired at the St. Mary’s Greek-Orthodox Church in the northern village of Iqrit. The IDF killed the terrorist who fired the missile.
The heaviest barrage to date was on December 27, with six rockets causing damage to residential buildings and infrastructure in Kiryat Shemonah. An additional three rockets were intercepted by Iron Dome, with the remainder landing in open areas.
War On the Horizon
The inevitability of an all-out war was becoming increasingly apparent. On December 27, a source told Haaretz, “Hezbollah has fired off in the current conflict more than 2,500 missiles and mortar shells. This is nothing less than a declaration of war. In any other situation, we would have responded differently, but we have consciously decided not to fight back. We hope and pray that diplomacy will cause Hezbollah to calm down. But even if that happens, it’s like taking an aspirin.” A Likud minister lamented, “Yes, we may find ourselves in a more difficult situation than we’re in now, as difficult as that is, as odd as that may seem. We understand that if we don’t act now, the price will be higher and more painful later. The real test of Hezbollah’s intentions will come when we move to the next stage in Gaza.”
Following the assassination of Arouri in Beirut, Nasrallah called the attack a “major and dangerous crime” that “will not go unanswered and unpunished.” He said, “If the enemy thinks of waging a war on Lebanon, we will fight without restraint, without rules, without limits, and without restrictions.”
Hezbollah Weapons Storage Facilities Targeted by IDF
The Biden administration sent Special Envoy Amos Hochstein to Lebanon and Israel “to help resolve some of the tension” and prevent the escalation of fighting. Gallant said after meeting with the envoy that time for a diplomatic solution was running out. “There is only one possible result – a new reality in the northern arena, which will enable the secure return of our citizens,” Gallant said. “Yet we find ourselves at a junction -- there is a short window of time for diplomatic understandings, which we prefer. We will not tolerate the threats posed by the Iranian proxy, Hezbollah, and we will ensure the security of our citizens.”
Hezbollah targeted Israeli surveillance outposts and damaged a key air traffic control base on Mount Meron used to coordinate air attacks in Lebanon. The person believed responsible for the attack on the base, Wissam Al Tawil, a senior commander also responsible for the Radwan Brigade in the area, was killed in a targeted strike two days later. Tawil was Nasrallah’s brother-in-law. The commander of Hezbollah’s drone force, Ali Hussein Barji, was killed on his way to Tawil’s funeral.
Terrorists attempted to infiltrate from the north. Israel killed four on January 13. The following day, a missile strike in Kfar Yuval killed a mother and her son and seriously injured the father. These were the first civilian casualties on the northern border since November 13, when an anti-tank missile killed an electrician repairing power lines damaged in another attack. Israel responded with air and artillery strikes on Hezbollah sites.
On January 25, the IDF attacked a key Hezbollah-Iranian airstrip in Kilat Jaber, Lebanon, that was used for launching aerial attacks against Israel.
The impact of Hezbollah’s anti-tank strikes was receiving little publicity in the international media because the civilian areas they were targeting were evacuated. Still, they were affecting families from places like Kiryat Shemonah, Shtula, Metullah, and Kibbutz Dafna, whose homes were being destroyed. As of February 1, 2024, 80,000 residents had been evacuated, 427 homes had structural damage, and 80 had major damage from direct hits. The most damaged were in Metullah (131 homes), Shlomi (130), and Manarah (121).
The United States reportedly exchanged messages with Nasrallah, who believes the Americans control Israel and can prevent it from attacking Lebanon. Nasrallah was told he was wrong and should not make the mistake of provoking Israel to launch an all-out war.
Meanwhile, Biden’s emissary, Amos Hochstein, continued efforts to reach a diplomatic solution. The proposals, however, require only a partial implementation of Resolution 1701. Hezbollah would not be required to disarm or move its forces north of the Litani River. Lebanese army troops would be deployed along the border, and Hezbollah would agree not to move forces it has withdrawn back to the area. Lebanon would receive economic carrots for agreeing to a deal. Israel would have to stop its flights into Lebanon and pull out some of its forces from the border. Israel did not reject the proposal but continued to insist that the border situation would have to change to allow its citizens to return to their homes.
Since Hezbollah began bombarding northern Israel, few casualties were reported. On February 13, 2024, however, a 15-year-old boy and a 47-year-old woman were seriously injured when their car was hit by a rocket near Kiryat Shemonah. The following day, multiple rockets landed in Safed, killing one and injuring seven.
In a speech on February 13, Nasrallah declared, “We are committed to fighting Israel until it is off the map. A strong Israel is dangerous to Lebanon, but a deterred Israel, defeated and exhausted, is less of a danger to Lebanon.” He added, “The national interest of Lebanon, the Palestinians, and the Arab world is that Israel leaves this battle defeated. Therefore, we are committed that Israel is defeated.”
On February 15, Israel killed Ali Muhammad al-Debes and his deputy Hassan Ibrahim Issa. The former was a commander in the Radwan Force who Israel said was one of the masterminds behind a bombing attack at the Megiddo Junction and other attacks against Israel.
With the scale of violence ramping up, the Washington Post reported that Iranian officials have told Hezbollah not to give Israel a reason to initiate an all-out war in Lebanon. Hezbollah was also urged to “exercise restraint against U.S. forces” to avoid provoking an American response.
Meanwhile, little attention has been given to another serious threat posed by Hezbollah, namely its tunnel system. Israel discovered some tunnels near the border, which it believed were meant for a 10/7 type attack. Operation Northern Shield destroyed them at the beginning of 2019. This was yet another example of how Hezbollah violated UN Resolution 1701, and UNIFIL failed in its primary mission.
A new report from a French publication says that Hezbollah has a tunnel network built with North Korean assistance that stretches hundreds of miles, including branches into Syria. The tunnels are believed to house missiles and other weapons. As in Gaza, they are built under civilian homes. This potentially posed an even greater challenge for the IDF, as Hezbollah has far more experienced and skilled fighters in addition to more sophisticated weapons than Hamas.
In preparation for the expected expansion of the war with Hezbollah, the Israeli Navy conducted exercises to simulate preventing drone attacks, aerial rescue operations from vessels, and refueling the missile boats at sea. The exercises were timed with new warnings from Israel that if a diplomatic solution to the threat from Hezbollah were not found soon, it would be necessary to take military action.
Foreign Minister Israel Katz said Israel provided the UN Security Council with evidence that Iran was continuing to send arms to Hezbollah in violation of Resolution 1701. The intelligence included details on the types of weapons supplied, the routes used, and the shipment dates.
Strikes back and forth continued daily, with Israel hitting deeper into Lebanon and Hezbollah escalating threats of reprisals.
On March 4, 2024, eight foreign workers were injured by an anti-tank missile. One from India died.
Even as Hochstein met with Lebanese officials to head off further escalation, Hezbollah was launching salvos of missiles. Hochstein said a truce in Gaza would not necessarily bring an automatic end to hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. “Escalation of violence is in no one’s interest, and there is no such thing as a limited war,” he said. “A temporary ceasefire is not enough. A limited war is not containable.”
Israel’s position remained unchanged. It would not stop fighting until it was safe for the 80,000 residents who were evacuated from border communities to return to their homes safely. All efforts to pressure the Lebanese government and Hezbollah to accept the terms of UN Security Council 1701 failed.
On March 27, a 25-year-old man was killed by a Hezbollah rocket that hit a building in Kiryat Shmona and caused a fire. A second man was rescued unharmed. Hezbollah said the attack was in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike that killed seven members of the al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya group who were planning to infiltrate the border. The group cooperates with Hezbollah even though it is composed of SunniMuslims, while Hezbollah is Shiite.
On April 16, 14 IDF soldiers and four civilians were wounded by two Hezbollah drones and two anti-tank missiles fired at and around a community center in Arab al-Aramshe, a Bedouin village in northern Galilee. Civilians had returned to the town after having left for safety for three months because they had not received any financial aid. Israel responded with multiple airstrikes.
“Half of the Hezbollah commanders in south Lebanon have been eliminated… and the other half hide and abandon south Lebanon to IDF operations,” Gallant said on April 24.
On April 26, an anti-tank missile killed an Israeli Bedouin working on an infrastructure project for the IDF in the Mount Dov area, which was a frequent target of Hezbollah.
France, which has historic ties to Lebanon, has been attempting to negotiate an end to the fighting. French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne met with Lebanese and Israeli officials and reportedly proposed that Hezbollah withdraw its forces to 10 km north of the border and remove outposts near the border. The Lebanese Armed Forces would then be deployed along the border. Israel would stop flying over Lebanese airspace and negotiate a change in the border. Hezbollah rejected the deal and continued its bombardment of northern communities in Israel, with Israel responding with tank and mortar fire along with airstrikes.
On May 6, two Israeli reserve soldiers were killed in a Hezbollah drone attack.
Hezbollah escalated its attacks in late May and early June, attacking targets deeper inside Israel with rockets and drones. On June 10, Hezbollah tried for the first time to shoot down an Israeli fighter using Iranian-made anti-aircraft missiles. The jet was unharmed, and the missile site was destroyed.
Nearing the Brink
Israel killed the highest-ranking Hezbollah commander on June 11, 2024. Taleb Sami Abdullah had been in charge of a unit that oversees parts of the southern border region. Hezbollah responded with a barrage of more than 200 rockets. One hit a factory in Kibbutz Sasa, some three miles from the border. Others were intercepted over Safed. Still more started fires. The Israeli Parks Authority said nearly 15,000 acres of land had burned in the first half of 2024.
On June 18, General Ori Gordin, head of the IDF Northern Command, and General Oded Basiuk, head of the Operations Directorate, announced the IDF had approved operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon. A day later, Hezbollah released a video purportedly taken by a drone showing Israeli military and civilian locations in several Israeli cities, which was seen as a warning of potential targets if an all-out war begins.
Nasrallah intensified his threats on June 19, saying if there is a war, “there will be no place safe from our missiles and our drones.” He added Hezbollah would fight with “no rules” and “no ceilings.”
He also threatened Cyprus. “The Cypriot government must be warned that opening Cypriot airports and bases for the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon means that the Cypriot government has become part of the war and the resistance (Hezbollah) will deal with it as part of the war,” Nasrallah said.
Though Cyprus and Israel have good relations and have conducted joint military exercises, the Cypriot president insisted his government was not taking sides. “It (Cyprus) is not part of the problem, it is part of the solution. That role is evident, for example, through the humanitarian (aid) corridor [to Gaza’ which has been acknowledged not only by the Arab world, but from the international community.”
Analysts were focused on the number and capability of Hezbollah’s missiles and drones and Israel’s ability to defend against them. According to the Alma Research and Education Center, Hezbollah’s arsenal consists of:
150,000 mortars
65,000 rockets with a range of 50 miles (80 km)
5,000 rockets with a range of 50-125 miles(80-200 km)
5,000 missiles with a range of 125-435 miles (200-700 km)
2,500 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
Hundreds of advanced conventional weapons
Of these, some 75,000 have been converted to precision-guided rockets/missiles, which Hezbollah can fire from hardened bunkers and mobile launchers. Reichman University’s Institute for Counter-Terrorism reported Hezbollah could fire up to 3,000 missiles a day for as long as three weeks.
“We assess that at least some” Iron Dome batteries “will be overwhelmed,” a senior Biden administration official told CNN. The Iron Dome is also ineffective against drones, which Hezbollah has increasingly used to devastating effect.
U.S. officials were especially worried about the war escalating. Air Force Gen. CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Iran “would be more inclined to support Hezbollah.” He said the U.S. was discouraging Israel from attacking Lebanon and “to think about the second order of effect of any type of operation into Lebanon, and how that might play out and how it impacts not just the region, but how it impacts our forces in regions as well.”
While the administration reassured Israeli officials that the U.S. would support Israel, Brown said the U.S. would not be able to provide the same protection against Hezbollah missiles that it did when Iran attacked Israel. The U.S. could intercept long-range ballistic missiles but could not stop short-range rockets or drones unless it had planes in the air over Israel, which would complicate operations for the Israeli Air Force.
While talk of all-out war was growing more strident, Israel and Hezbollah continued their mostly tit-for-tat attacks and counterattacks. Israel began to strike deeper into Lebanon and eliminated Ayman Ratma, who was responsible for weapons supplies for the Hamas and Jamaa Islamiya terrorist organizations in Lebanon.
Another alarming report came from The Telegraph, which said whistleblowers at Beirut airport were worried it might become a target because of increasing weapons supplies arriving on flights from Iran, which were being stored at the site. Wafiq Safa, Hezbollah’s second in command and the head of its security apparatus, was said to be a regular visitor to the airport. With Hezbollah in control of the government and the area surrounding the airfield, sources told the paper that nothing could be done. Lebanon’s transport minister, who is the choice of Hezbollah, denied the allegations made by the whistleblowers.
AP reported that “thousands of fighters from Iran-backed groups in the Middle East are ready to come to Lebanon” to fight with Hezbollah if Israel attacks. “We told them, thank you, but we are overwhelmed by the numbers we have,” Nasrallah said. The group claimed to have more than 100,000 fighters.
Khalil Rizk,the chief of Hizbullah’s foreign relations department, made clear that Hezbollah considers its real enemy the United States. “This is not a war with Israel,” he said. “Israel is merely a tool. The main war, the real war, is with America.”
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that Hezbollah’s “provocations threaten to drag the Israeli and Lebanese people into a war that neither of them wants, and such a war would be a catastrophe for Lebanon, and it would be devastating for innocent Israeli and Lebanese civilians.” He insisted “principled diplomacy is the only way to prevent any further escalation of tensions in the region.”
In addition, Hochstein visited Beirut and warned that the U.S. would not be able to keep Israel from invading Lebanon if Hezbollah did not stop its attacks and negotiate an agreement to end hostilities.
Indications that the escalation was near were that the U.S. and other countries began advising their citizens to leave Lebanon.
On June 27, Ali al-Din was killed in a targeted strike. He was a member of Hezbollah’s aerial forces, behind drone attacks on northern Israel. In response, Hezbollah fired a barrage of 40 rockets into Israel, and the IAF responded with airstrikes.
Two days later, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said on Friday that if Israel embarks on a “full-scale military aggression” in Lebanon against Hezbollah, “an obliterating war will ensue.” It said, “all options, including the full involvement of all resistance fronts, are on the table.”
From October 8, 2023, through the end of June 2024, Hezbollah launched 2,295 attacks on Israel, including anti-tank missiles and drones. On the last day of June, in the most serious incident to date, 18 Israeli soldiers were wounded when a drone hit an area where they were stationed in the northern Golan Heights.
After evacuating some 61,000 citizens from 43 communities within three miles of the Lebanese border, Israel made clear the situation was untenable and that unless a diplomatic solution forced Hezbollah away from the border, an all-out war was coming. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken admitted as much on July 1, 2024, when he said Israel “has effectively lost sovereignty in the northern quadrant of its country because people don’t feel safe to go to their homes” and though Israel did not want a war, “they may well be prepared to engage in one if necessary — from their perspective — to protect their interests.”
Israel killed another Hezbollah commander, Muhammad Nimah Nasser, on July 3. Hezbollah retaliated with a barrage of more than 200 rockets and drones, which sparked fires in northern Israel. Continuing the pattern, the IAF responded with airstrikes.
One hope for avoiding an all-out war was that a hostage and ceasefire deal could be reached with Hamas. Hezbollah has also said it would observe a ceasefire if such an agreement took effect. However, their forces would remain, in defiance of UN Resolution 1701, near the Israeli border, and the population that was forced to evacuate the northern communities is not likely to feel safe enough to return under those conditions. If so, it seems a war to at least push Hezbollah north of the Litani River would be inevitable.
Hezbollah rockets continued to cause damage in northern communities and spark fires.
The IDF escalated its targeting of the supply chain and storage of weapons from Iran, including commanders responsible for arming the group. On July 9, the IDF assassinated Yasser Nimer Qarnabash; Hezbollah responded with a barrage of 40 rockets. Nasrallah subsequently ordered commanders to stop using cell phones that Israel could track.
“If Israeli tanks come to Lebanon, they will not only have a shortage in tanks but will never have any tanks left,” Nasrallah threatened on July 17. “The resistance missiles will target new Israeli settlements that were not targeted before.” He added, “Our front in Lebanon will not stop as long as the aggression against Gaza, its people, and resistance in its various forms continues.”
The following day, Hezbollah said Israel killed Habib Maatouk, a senior commander in the Radwan force. He was the replacement for someone Israel killed in April. After assassinations, Hezbollah has usually increased its bombardment of Israel.
On July 27, 2024, a rocket fired from Lebanon hit a soccer field in the northern Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, killing 12 children and wounding dozens more. This incident marks the deadliest Hezbollah attack on northern Israel since the conflict began on October 7. The victims, aged 10-20, were unable to escape in time despite a warning siren. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, cutting short his U.S. visit, returned home amid escalating tensions and threats of significant retaliation, including by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Israeli officials and the IDF confirmed that the attack was carried out by Hezbollah using an Iranian-made Falaq-1 rocket. The IDF identified the Hezbollah commander responsible for the strike and reiterated its commitment to a severe military response.
World leaders and others immediately urged Israel to show restraint to avoid escalation. The U.S. said Israel had every right to respond but was reportedly urging Israel not to launch a ground invasion, attack Beirut, or target infrastructure. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned, “Any possible Israeli attack on Lebanon will have serious consequences for Israel.”
The IDF continued to use air strikes to degrade Hezbollah’s military capacity and to create about a three-mile (5 km.) security zone stretching from the Israeli border into Lebanon. Thousands of Lebanese civilians have fled the border communities, and Hezbollah moved most of its fighters further into the interior.
Hezbollah targeted an Israeli gas rig in the Mediterranean twice in two days. The Israeli Navy intercepted the UAVs in both instances. Before the war, the rigs were considered vulnerable to attack, and Israel increased security around them.
On July 30, 2024, Israel killed Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s most senior military commander and a right-hand man to Nasrallah in an air strike in Beirut. Shukr was responsible for the Majdal Shams strike that killed 12 children and other deadly attacks on Israel. The IDF said he was “responsible for the majority of Hezbollah’s most advanced weaponry, including precise-guided missiles, cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, long-range rockets, and UAVs” and for the terror group’s “force build-up, planning, and execution of terror attacks against the State of Israel.” He was also a member of the Jihad Council, Hezbollah’s top military body. It was the first Israeli attack on the Lebanese capital since a January strike that killed Hamas’s deputy leader abroad, Saleh al-Arouri.
Israel was bracing for a retaliatory attack from Hezbollah. The low-level tit-for-tat attacks continued in the meantime, with one Hezbollah drone strike injuring 19 Israelis in the Western Galilee. With Hezbollah firing dozens of rockets, the IDF conducted brigade-level exercises in preparation for combat in Lebanon.
As of August 25, 2024, Hezbollah has launched over 8,000 rockets and 200 UAVs into Israel, causing billions of shekels in damage to agriculture and tourism and destroying 250,000 acres of dunams.
Netanyahu was increasingly under pressure to decide whether to invade Lebanon to push Hezbollah away from the border to enable the 70,000 residents of the north who evacuated the area to return to their homes. Unless those citizens are confident that Hezbollah cannot stage an October 7-type attack, which it is believed they had planned before Hamas ruined their element of surprise, they are unlikely to feel safe enough to return.
Rough map showing the area that has been evacuated between the red line and the broken line marking the border of Lebanon
With Israel’s northern border effectively redrawn, Netanyahu faced a stark choice: launch the invasion of Lebanon that he has long avoided or accept the loss of sovereignty in the north. The U.S. will likely oppose an Israeli land incursion, and the international demonization of Israel will undoubtedly grow, as will campus protests. Even if Israel goes into Lebanon, there is no assurance it will emerge victorious. As the inevitable civilian casualties mount, Israel will be criticized in the press and pressured to end the war before the IDF can accomplish its goals. The wider war Biden has managed to avert could be even more likely if Iran decides to defend its proxy.
A soldier was killed and another seriously wounded in a drone attack on Western Galilee. The IDF responded with airstrikes on Hezbollah weapons depots. A drone strike also killed Hussein Ali Hussein Suleiman, part of the group’s rocket and missile unit.
Preemptive Strike
In the early morning of August 25. Israel detected that thousands of Hezbollah launchers were set on a timer to launch a massive rocket attack. The Mossad headquarters was believed to be among the targets. The IDF preemptively attacked launch sites in 40 locations across southern Lebanon. Hezbollah managed to launch 210 rockets and 20 drones, but most were intercepted or caused minor damage. One Israeli sailor was believed killed by the shrapnel from an Iron Dome interceptor destroying a drone aimed at an Israeli Navy ship. Hezbollah acknowledged the death of two of its fighters.
The IDF published maps showing that many of the rocket launchers were in civilian areas of Lebanon, demonstrating again Hezbollah’s attempted use of civilians as shields.
Click to enlarge
The Environmental Protection Ministry reported at the end of August that the 8,000 rockets and drones fired at Israel since October 7 had incinerated about 56 square miles of vegetation along the northern border.
Meanwhile, the IDF continued exercises in the north and deployed Iron Dome batteries to strategic locations in preparation for war.
Operation Many Ways
On September 8, 2024, an Israeli commando raid, “Operation Many Ways,” targeted an underground Iranian missile production facility used by Hezbollah in Masyaf, Syria. This facility, codenamed “Deep Layer,” was dug into a mountain in a scientific studies and research center. It was intended to produce hundreds of precision missiles per year for both Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Assad regime in Syria. The facility was nearing operational status, having already made at least two missiles as part of testing. The IDF estimated that the facility would have been able to manufacture between 100 and 300 missiles a year, potentially replacing the need for Iran to truck missiles and parts from its territory to Lebanon via Syria.
The operation was complex and daring. One hundred twenty members of the IAF’s elite Shaldag unit and the search and rescue Unit 669 were involved. The mission involved four CH-53 “Yasur” heavy transport helicopters carrying the commandos, two attack helicopters for support, 21 fighter jets, five drones, 14 spy planes, and other aircraft. Another 30 aircraft were on standby in Israel in case of emergencies. The helicopters flew unusually low over the Mediterranean Sea before crossing into Syria to avoid detection. The operation was also timed to take advantage of clear weather conditions.
A key target within the facility was the planetary mixers, which were crucial for producing solid rocket fuel. Solid rocket fuel allows missiles to be launched without on-site fueling, making them less vulnerable to detection. It also significantly enhances the missile’s range and precision. The raid, lasting two and a half hours, involved planting explosives throughout the facility, particularly on the planetary mixers. The commandos successfully detonated the explosives, creating a blast equivalent to one ton of TNT. No Israeli soldiers were injured during the operation. The IDF assessed that around 30 Syrian guards and soldiers were killed.
Following the raid, images of the planetary mixers from the destroyed facility were released to the public for the first time. The operation set back Iran’s missile production for at least two years and destroyed at least a dozen planetary mixers, each costing approximately $2 million. Israel has been targeting Iran’s planetary mixers since at least 2019, carrying out attacks in Beirut and against a vessel delivering a mixer. The destruction of “Deep Layer” represented a significant blow to Iran’s efforts to arm its allies in the region.
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Exploding Pagers
On September 17, Netanyahu announced the cabinet had voted to formally make the safe return of residents from communities along its border with Lebanon to their homes a war objective. This was always understood to be a political necessity, but this is the first time it has been made an official war goal. Earlier, Netanyahu and Gallant told Hochstein during his visit to Jerusalem, hoping to head off an all-out war, that “military action” was “the only way” to achieve this objective.” The same message was delivered to Austin, who had told Gallant to give talks time to succeed. Netanyahu said, “while Israel appreciates and respects the support of the U.S., it will ultimately do what is necessary to safeguard its security and return the residents of the north securely to their homes.”
Several hours later, pagers belonging to Hezbollah fighters exploded across Lebanon and parts of Syria. Reports were conflicting, but an estimated 3,000 people were injured, and at least 12 Hezbollah terrorists were killed. Among the wounded was the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, who lost an eye. Hezbollah had adopted the use of pagers because Israel could track their cell phones. Iran denied it, but a Saudi publication reported that similar explosions in Syria killed 19 Iranian Revolutionary Guards and wounded 150.
The Mossad operation to sabotage communication devices was the result of years of meticulous planning, starting with efforts to infiltrate Hezbollah using electronic surveillance and informants. Mossad agents carefully sourced components for the AR924 pagers from multiple suppliers to evade detection, then assembled the devices in a secure facility under Mossad supervision. Each pager was discreetly embedded with a small battery, concealed plastic explosive, and an undetectable detonator, invisible to X-ray. The device could be remotely triggered by an encrypted message that required users to hold the pager with both hands, increasing the likelihood of debilitating injuries from the ensuing blast.
A Taiwanese company, Apollo, marketed the AR924 pagers as secure from Israeli surveillance, unaware that they were embedded with explosives that could be detonated remotely. The sale was facilitated through a trusted intermediary who had connections to Hezbollah, ensuring the pagers were not traced back to Israeli sources. Hezbollah purchased 5,000 of these devices for its commanders and rank and file.
Some speculated this was a response to the Shin Bet’s revelation that it had foiled a Hezbollah assassination attempt on ex-Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon. More likely, it was a first strike in the escalation of the war.
The day after the pagers exploded, more explosions occurred across Lebanon. These involved walkie-talkies purchased at the same time as the pagers five months earlier. The two attacks injured hundreds of fighters, with many suffering severe injuries such as losing eyes and limbs; at least 37 people were killed. A Hezbollah official later said 1,500 terrorists were too injured to fight. Panic ensued with reports of iPhones, computers, and other devices with lithium batteries exploding. Hezbollah’s means of communication were disrupted, and many of its Radwan Force Commanders were thought to be killed or injured.
No details were immediately available, but a Saudi source reported that explosions occurred at the headquarters of the terrorist organization al-Hashd al-Shaabi in Mosul, Iraq, at the same time as the explosions of Hezbollah walkie-talkies in Lebanon.
Israel reportedly moved up the attack because it suspected Hezbollah might have discovered the plan. Just minutes before the operation began, Gallant called Austin and told him only that Israel was about to conduct an operation. Months later, after leaving the government, Gallant said that because Hezbollah was suspicious, only about 200 walkie-talkies were held by terrorists; the rest were blown up in storage and isolated places and had no impact. The former defense minister said he wanted to detonate them on October 11, which he said “could have changed the course of the war” and “eliminated all the chain of command of Hezbollah immediately.” Netanyahu said, however, that the operation had to wait because too few beepers were in Lebanon.
In a February 25, 2025, speech, Mossad Director David Barnea called the agency’s beeper operation a turning point in the Northern war. Barnea praised the operation’s intelligence, technological superiority, and strategic impact, stating that it significantly weakened Hezbollah’s morale. Barnea said it was conceived as a more effective alternative to previous radio-based tactics and was ultimately deployed with greater impact as the war progressed. He said the operation had begun ten years earlier and that when they realized the walkie-talkies weren’t the only way Hezbollah communicated, they decided in 2022 to booby-trap the pagers.
In July 2025, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem admitted, “The beeper issue began with a major leak. We thought the purchase had been covert, but it turned out everything was exposed to the Israelis. The beeper explosion was a very heavy blow for us. The infiltration of our communication system was nearly complete. The Israelis knew everything. We were unaware of that.”
The operation prompted a statement from France and the United States. “France and the United States are united in calling for restraint and urging de-escalation when it comes to the Middle East in general and when it comes to Lebanon in particular,” Blinken said after talks in Paris with French counterpart Stephane Sejourne. “We don’t want to see any escalatory actions by any party” that would jeopardize the negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza.
“It is an act of war against the people of Lebanon, Lebanon’s sovereignty. It is a declaration of war,” Nasrallah said after two days of explosions decimating Hezbollah’s communication system and maiming or killing dozens of its members. “They will face a severe reckoning.”
Besides humiliating Hezbollah, the Washington Post noted the Israeli operation “eroded the once-solid sense of security they felt living far from the front lines in southern Lebanon.”
It also disrupted the ability of Hezbollah to communicate and, combined with the assassination of the group’s commanders, was believed to inhibit their command and control over their rocket arsenal.
The presumed Israeli attacks also fractured the Iranians’ sense of security. The IRGC banned the use of all communication devices until they could be inspected and began an investigation into possible Israeli infiltration of the group. It also arrested 12 people for alleged collaboration with Israel.
The IAF subsequently struck more than 100 missile launchers before rockets could be fired. Gallant said Israel had entered “a new phase of the war” as troops were ordered to redeploy from Gaza to the northern front.
The threat of escalation led airlines to halt flights to Israel and Beirut. Lebanon also banned pagers and walkie-talkies from flights leaving Beirut.
The decision was warranted as Israel staged several airstrikes targeting Hezbollah neighborhoods in Beirut. On September 20, one strike killed Ibrahim Aqil, commander of the Radwan Force and the person who replaced the former number two person in the organization, Fuad Shukr, who Israel assassinated in July. The IDF said an airstrike killed Aqil while he was meeting under a residential building with at least ten commanders who were also killed. Israel said they were planning an October 7-type attack. Aqil was also wanted by the United States, which offered a $7 million reward for information because of his role in the bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks and Embassy in Beirut that killed 304 people in 1983.
Operation Northern Arrow
On September 23, 2024, Gallant announced that Israel had entered a “new stage” in the war. “We are deepening our attacks in Lebanon,” he said. “The actions will continue until we achieve our goal to return the northern residents safely to their homes.”
In the days following the pager and walkie-talkie attacks, Israel significantly intensified its bombing campaign. Anticipating the likelihood of an increase in Hezbollah missile strikes, the IAF conducted hundreds of sorties to destroy launch sites and terror infrastructure built up since the Second Lebanon War in what it called Operation Northern Arrow. Since many are located in or around civilian homes, Israel told the Lebanese to leave any area where rockets or weapons were stored, causing civilians to flee the south. Meanwhile, Israeli ground forces mobilized near the border.
Hezbollah continued to fire hundreds of rockets during that time and, according to the Times of Israel, “expanded the range to hit the greater Haifa area and the Jezreel Valley, putting some two million Israelis in range of its strikes.”
“We are talking about distancing Hezbollah from the border and degrading its capabilities,” Netanyahu said on September 23. “This is not a one-off event. We will continue, but would prefer not to get to all-out war.”
Hezbollah claimed to be targeting military sites in Israel, but the strikes appeared indiscriminate and aimed at civilian areas. Israeli Arabs had already been targeted in the attack on Majdal Shams. Palestinians in the West Bank were not safe either, as one rocket landed in the town of Deir Istiya. Fortunately, most incoming projectiles were intercepted.
Israeli air defense also shot down a drone and two cruise missiles launched from Iraq.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog told Sky News, “We do not want war. We absolutely did not seek this war. This war was instigated by the empire of evil - the Iranian proxies in the region under the command of Iran - from the south, Hamas; from the north, Hezbollah; from Yemen, by the Houthis, from Iraq, from all over the place. As part of this strategy, as the Supreme Leader of Iran just said yesterday, that Israel is a tumor that must be removed. So Israel is fighting for its well-being, its existence, its citizens. That’s what we are doing. And it is the right thing to do.”
He added that Israel was not at war with the country of Lebanon, which he said had been “hijacked by a terror organization which is also a political party and it’s been armed to its teeth by the Iranian empire of evil.”
On September 24, Israel continued waves of airstrikes and successfully targeted and killed the head of Hezbollah’s rocket and missile division, Ibrahim Qubaisi. The IDF said Qubaisi also planned Hezbollah’s kidnapping attack in 2000, in which IDF soldiers Staff Sgt. Benyamin Avraham, Staff Sgt. Adi Avitan and Staff Sgt. Omar Sawaid was killed, and their bodies were abducted (they were returned in a prisoner exchange in 2004).
A senior officer told the Times of Israel that the airstrikes were the most extensive the IAF had ever conducted. They were directed at Hezbollah command centers, missile launch sites, and weapons storage facilities. Often, secondary explosions occurred after an Israeli strike, indicating the presence of weapons in the buildings.
Hezbollah fired more than 150 rockets, reaching as far as areas south of Haifa. Many buildings were damaged, and fires started. Most injuries were minor and resulted from being hit by falling shrapnel from interceptions as they ran for bomb shelters after sirens went off. Two Palestinians, a 60-year-old man and an elderly woman, were hurt when a rocket struck between homes in Deir Istiya and caused “significant material damage.”
Halevi said, “Hezbollah must not be given a break...We will accelerate the offensive operations today and bolster all the arrays. The situation requires continued intensive action on all fronts.”
Lebanese civilians were also again warned to evacuate areas Israel planned to bomb. “If you are near or in Hezbollah buildings or those used by it to store weapons, you must move away from those buildings at least one kilometer away or outside the village, immediately,” Col. Avichay Adraee, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman, said on X.
The Lebanese Foreign Ministry reported that nearly half a million people had been displaced from southern Lebanon, and as the civilian casualty toll in Lebanon grew, so did the international calls for an end to the fighting. For example, the G7 issued this statement: “Actions and counter-reactions risk magnifying this dangerous spiral of violence and dragging the entire Middle East into a broader regional conflict with unimaginable consequences.”
Israeli President Isaac Herzog said on “Face the Nation” two days earlier, “We agree, time and again, to go into rounds of talks. We support and welcome the efforts by the United States of America and the administration. Truly. We respect it tremendously. But at the end of it, Hochstein leaves Israel, and they keep on firing and firing, and that cannot go on forever, because our citizens must go back home....We don’t want war, but if it’s waged against us, we go all the way.”
Foreign Minister Israel Katz laid out the solution for ending the war in a letter to the UN Security Council: “Now, this council must bring about a full implementation of UNSC Resolution 1701 and guarantee that there are no armed personnel, assets, and weapons between the Blue Line and the Litani River, other than those of the Government of Lebanon and UNIFIL.”
Ignoring the Israeli position, the U.S. and France issued a joint statement, later joined by nine other countries and the European Union, calling for an immediate 21-day “ceasefire to give diplomacy a chance to succeed and avoid further escalations across the border.” A senior U.S. official followed up the statement by saying, “We hope that it might also open up diplomatic space as well to galvanize efforts on the very important primary effort: we have to bring the hostages home.”
Both Israel and Hezbollah rejected the ceasefire proposal and continued fighting. In less than a week, the IAF had struck more than 2,000 targets, and Hezbollah had fired several hundred rockets.
Biden was reportedly furious with Netanyahu because the proposal had been coordinated with Israel. Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer had privately agreed to accept the ceasefire in principle. When he landed in New York for his upcoming speech to the UN General Assembly, the prime minister was expected to say that Israel welcomed any ceasefire plan that would allow the residents of northern Israel to return to their homes. Right-wing members of Netanyahu’s coalition threatened to bolt if the war did not continue, leading Netanyahu to backtrack from the understanding with the United States and publicly declare Israel’s intention to continue the war. A source told Israel’s Channel 12, “Obviously the president of the United States would not lead a process like this without the agreement of Prime Minister Netanyahu. This backtracking completely shatters what remains of relations with the Biden administration.”
Meanwhile, Hezbollah risked provoking a serious escalation when it fired a ballistic missile targeting Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv on September 25th. The David’s Sling air defense system intercepted and destroyed the rocket.
The Biden administration continued to impede Israel’s operations by withholding vital information and weapons. To avoid angering Arab allies and provoking Iran, the Pentagon publicly announced that the United States was not providing intelligence support to Israel for its operations against Hezbollah. Republicans in Congress said the administration was also delaying the delivery of MK-84 bombs, Apache attack helicopters, and Caterpillar DP tractors.
The administration also pressured Israel not to attack Lebanese infrastructure, even as Hezbollah and Houthi rockets were directed at the port in Haifa and landed near a water pumping station in Tiberias.
Nasrallah Is Killed
Rather than a ceasefire, Israel chose to escalate the fight by striking Hezbollah’s Beirut headquarters on September 27 in an attempt to kill Nasrallah in the underground lair where the group’s top officials routinely meet. Six buildings were flattened, and a day later, Hezbollah acknowledged that Nasrallah and several other commanders were killed, including the organization’s southern front commander, Ali Karaki, and the commander of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards in Syria and Lebanon, Iranian General Abbas Nilforushan.
The death of Nasrallah was mourned by Shiites throughout the region and many Lebanese. It was celebrated, however, by some Sunni Muslims and many Syrians who had been the victims of Hezbollah fighters who helped Bashar Assad during the Syrian civil war.
The timing of Israel’s strike surprised the world because the attack occurred almost simultaneously with Netanyahu’s speech before the United Nations, leading to the suggestion that his speech was a diversion to convince Nasrallah he was safe. American officials were furious that they were informed of Israel’s plan only after the strike began and immediately disavowed involvement.
Earlier that morning, Netanyahu had said, “Israel shares the aims of the U.S.-led initiative of enabling people along our northern border to return safely and securely to their homes. Israel appreciates the U.S. efforts in this regard because the U.S. role is indispensable in advancing stability and security in the region. Our teams met [September 26] to discuss the U.S. initiative and how we can advance the shared goal of returning people safely to their homes. We will continue those discussions in the coming days.”
Reacting to the assassination, President Biden said:
Hassan Nasrallah and the terrorist group he led, Hezbollah, were responsible for killing hundreds of Americans over a four-decade reign of terror. His death from an Israeli airstrike is a measure of justice for his many victims, including thousands of Americans, Israelis, and Lebanese civilians...The United States fully supports Israel’s right to defend itself against Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and any other Iranian-supported terrorist groups.
He also reaffirmed his commitment to diplomacy. “In Gaza, we have been pursuing a deal backed by the UN Security Council for a ceasefire and the release of hostages,” Biden said. “In Lebanon, we have been negotiating a deal that would return people safely to their homes in Israel and southern Lebanon. It is time for these deals to close, for the threats to Israel to be removed, and for the broader Middle East region to gain greater stability.”
Meanwhile, IDF officials spoke publicly about plans for a ground offensive and ongoing preparations for an invasion, including special forces operating inside Lebanon. The IDF later revealed it had carried out more than 70 raids in Lebanon since October 7, destroying numerous Hezbollah positions, tunnels, and thousands of weapons. The IDF initiated dozens of special forces ground operations in Shiite villages and adjacent areas near the Israel-Lebanon border. These missions uncovered a vast network of bunkers and tunnels built for Radwan fighters launching assaults. The discovery of these tunnels and bunkers led the IDF and the security cabinet to greenlight the ground campaign in southern Lebanon.
“We will face any possibility and we are ready if the Israelis decide to enter by land and the resistance forces are ready for a ground engagement,” said Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem.
In anticipation of the ground operation, Lebanese troops pulled back from the border.
When asked if he was comfortable with Israel launching a limited ground operation, Biden said, “I’m comfortable with them stopping. We need a ceasefire now.”
Once again, Israel ignored the president, and on September 30, Arab media reported that IDF tanks had entered multiple villages in Lebanon after warnings had been issued for residents to leave. Similarly, residents of Beirut suburbs were advised to evacuate.
According to the Jerusalem Post, the ground operation will seek to eliminate the ability of the Radwan forces to invade Israel. Previously, the IDF had been reluctant to enter Lebanon because of the fear of retaliation by Hezbollah with its enormous missile inventory. That did not happen in the three days after the assassination of Nasrallah, which gave the military greater confidence that the IAF had been more successful than expected in destroying the arsenal.
The disruption of Hezbollah’s communication network and decapitation of its leadership had at least temporarily inhibited the group’s ability to respond. The situation could change, but the expected threats to Tel Aviv, Haifa, and critical infrastructure failed to materialize because Israeli officials speculated they had so severely damaged the group’s command-and-control structure that no senior commanders were left to give orders to fire the longer-range missiles.
Israel believed it had destroyed about half of Hezbollah’s missiles by the end of September, but that still meant it could have 75,000 or more left.
The assassination of Nasrallah also spread mistrust between Tehran and Hezbollah and set off a mole hunt in Tehran to determine who in the Revolutionary Guards helped Israel track his movements. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who reportedly told Nasrallah to leave Lebanon days before his assassination, was moved to a secret location out of fear Israel might target him. Hezbollah was also hesitant to name a new leader for the same reason.
On October 2, Israel suffered its first casualties in Lebanon when eight soldiers were killed. Ground troops began sweeping through southern Lebanon, and more forces were being called up and deployed. The IAF launched hundreds of strikes against targets in and around Beirut, along with the southern regions, hitting missile launchers and arms depots. Determined to prevent Hezbollah from reconstituting its leadership, an airstrike on October 3 killed Hashem Safieddine, the head of Hezbollah’s Executive Council, who was identified as the potential successor to Nasrallah. Several newly appointed Hezbollah commanders and Esmail Qaani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force, were also killed in the hit on a bunker in Beirut. The same day, Khider al-Shaebia, who orchestrated the July rocket attack on Majdal Shams that killed 12 children and teenagers, was also killed.
Degrading Infrastructure
The IDF located and neutralized a tunnel that crossed from Lebanon into Israel near Moshav Zerait. This tunnel was discovered months before, but the information was kept secret so the IDF could ambush Hezbollah if they used it. The army also sent a fourth division into the fight as the ground campaign expanded, though it said it intended to end the war as quickly as possible.
Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem, one of the last surviving members of the group’s top leadership, declared, “Our capabilities are fine, and our fighters are deployed along the frontlines.”
As if to prove the boast, Hezbollah fired more than 100 rockets at Haifa on October 8. Most were intercepted, but seven homes were hit, and one person was wounded by shrapnel.
Still, Qassem said Hezbollah was prepared to allow the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, to negotiate a ceasefire. It was the first time no mention was made of tying its actions to an end in the fighting in Gaza.
While Qassem spoke from an undisclosed location, Israel continued to target his comrades. The IDF announced that it killed the head of Hezbollah’s logistical headquarters, Suhail Hussein Husseini, in an airstrike on Beirut. Husseini, a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council, participated in weapon transfers between Hezbollah and Iran and was responsible for distributing the advanced weaponry among Hezbollah’s units.
On October 4, the United States announced that it would provide $157 million to address humanitarian needs in Lebanon.
Iran was also stepping up its assistance to Hezbollah. It was increasing efforts to transfer weapons from Syria and Iraq, sending military advisers to help restore order and command structures, and helping to investigate how Israeli intelligence so successfully penetrated the organization.
In the deadliest attack of the war, a drone struck the dining hall at a military base near Binyamina on October 13, killing four soldiers and injuring 67. Two drones heading from the sea were tracked by Israeli radar, and one was shot down off the coast north of Haifa. Sirens sounded in the western Galilee area, but not in the area of the base, because it was thought to have crashed after it fell off the radar.
The IAF subsequently declared its intention to wipe out Hezbollah’s drone force and kill every member of Unit 127, which is responsible for its UAV production, maintenance, and operation.
Israel and the international community were again at loggerheads after several UNIFIL peacekeepers were injured by IDF fire. Israel had told UNIFIL to withdraw from the area, but the UN ordered it to remain in place. “The IDF has repeatedly asked for this, and has been met with repeated refusals, all aimed at providing a human shield to Hezbollah terrorists,” Netanyahu said.
Meanwhile, the IDF was discovering weapons and tunnels close to UNIFIL positions and said Hezbollah forces were firing from locations near UNIFIL forces. Terrorists captured by the IDF told interrogators that Hezbollah paid UNIFIL personnel to use their positions and took control of the peacekeepers’ cameras to watch the Israeli border.
A former soldier from the United Nations Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO), responsible for reporting violations of Resolution 1701, said in an interview, “We were totally subject to Hezbollah. We clearly had limited freedom of movement. For example, we never operated after dark for fear of Hezbollah. So they had free time in the evening and night hours.” He added that Hezbollah confiscated their devices when they tried to collect evidence and prevented them from entering certain areas. “They didn’t want us to see what they were doing.”
“We reported daily violations of resolution 1701 to our superiors, including in particular restrictions on our freedom of movement, and we were instructed to report all violations regardless of number. But nothing ever happened,” he said. “We did not hear back from them, and nothing was initiated. It was wildly frustrating, and it only confirmed to me what I had experienced in other countries I was posted to: The UN is incompetent.”
U.S. Defense Secretary Austin expressed concern about the incidents, which he said “reinforced the need to pivot from military operations in Lebanon to a diplomatic pathway as soon as feasible.”
Israel continued to expand its operations to Hezbollah strongholds in southern Beirut and the Bekaa Valley. Residents were being told, “You are located near Hezbollah facilities and interests against which the IDF will operate in the near future.”
Journalists were given a tour of Hezbollah bases found just 300 yards from the Israeli border. The posts were filled with mines, ammunition, and other supplies. The New York Times correspondent said, “We saw two tunnel shafts leading to a network of hide-outs and weapons stores at least one story deep in the ground. A base used by United Nations peacekeepers was situated less than 200 yards away.”
Gen. Yiftach Norkin told reporters the quantity and quality of the weaponry, combined with the proximity to Israel, were indications of preparations for the long-threatened invasion of the Galilee. A platoon commander said that within less than half a square mile, the IDF had found about 100 sites with tunnel shafts, weapons caches, internet cables, water stores, and supplies, including thermal scopes, blood bags for transfusions, and medical kits marked “Made in Iran.” In a separate interview with Le Figaro, Netanyahu said the IDF also found state-of-the-art Russian weapons.
Amid the Israeli criticism of UNIFIL, the German defense ministry said a German warship participating in UNIFIL’s mission shot down a drone off the coast of Lebanon on October 17.
The IDF said in late October it had killed more than 2,000 Hezbollah fighters, 1,200 since the ground campaign began. It also estimated that it destroyed about 80% of its rockets, leaving it with about 30,000.
According to the IDF spokesperson, Nasrallah had an emergency bunker beneath the Al-Sahel Hospital in Dahieh, southern Beirut. This bunker was the group’s central repository for funds, holding gold and half a billion dollars in cash. Much of the money was stolen from Lebanese citizens.
Israel said it would not strike the hospital, but it was bombing branches of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a U.S.-sanctioned bank that “illicitly moves funds through shell accounts and facilitators, exposing Lebanese financial institutions to possible sanctions.” An Israeli official told reporters: “The main objective is to affect the trust between Hezbollah and a lot of the Shiite community that uses this association as a banking system.” The official also said the strike targeted “the ability of Hezbollah to function both during the war but also afterwards to rebuild and to rearm the organization on the day after.”
A drone fired from Lebanon hit the bedroom window of Netanyahu’s home in Caesarea on October 19, 2024, in an apparent assassination attempt. The Netanyahus were not home, and no one was injured. Hezbollah took credit, but Israel blamed Iran. Netanyahu vowed that anyone who harmed Israelis would pay “a heavy price.”
On October 28, Hezbollah announced that Naim Qassem, its longtime deputy leader, would replace Nasrallah as secretary general. His intention to maintain the same policy was evident in his statement prior to his appointment. “We will confront any possibility, and we are ready if the Israelis decide to enter by land,” he said. “The forces of the resistance are ready for a ground engagement.”
Israel continued to pummel Hezbollah targets. The IDF said it had struck 54 sites used to store drones, 24 sites used to store cruise missiles, eight sites where drones and cruise missiles were assembled, six underground sites, and seven weapons depots.
In a series of rocket barrages on October 31, an Israeli farmer and four foreign workers were killed in an agricultural field near Metullah. Two days earlier, a man was killed and 13 others wounded in Ma’alot-Tarshiha.
Israel was criticized when the IDF injured UNIFIL soldiers, but the response was more muted after a Hezbollah rocket hit UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura, wounding eight Austrian UNIFIL troops.
Meanwhile, the United States desperately pushed for a ceasefire, hoping to succeed in time for President Biden to take credit for the achievement. Hochstein reportedly asked Lebanon for a unilateral ceasefire that would allow him to put pressure on Israel; Lebanon refused. Meanwhile, Israel approached Russia to guarantee that no arms will be smuggled from Syria into Lebanon.
On November 2, Shayetet 13 captured a senior Hezbollah naval officer, Imad Amhaz, in Batroun, northern Lebanon. He was believed to have significant knowledge about the group’s naval operations. The following day, an Iranian operative, Soleiman al-Assi, was captured from Syria. The IDF said he had information on Iranian activities near the Golan Heights.
The Lebanese National Agency reported that more than 37 villages were wiped out, and more than 40,000 housing units were destroyed.
On November 6, a volley of rockets was fired into central Israel, with one landing in the parking lot of Ben-Gurion Airport. No injuries were reported. Israel responded by striking a site linked to Hezbollah near the runways of Beirut airport.
New Leader, Same Policy
Qassem showed no softening of Hezbollah’s position when he declared the war would only stop when Israel ended its “aggression.” He said Hezbollah was prepared for a long war of attrition. “We have tens of thousands of trained resistance jihadi combatants that are ready to die as martyrs.” Like Hamas leaders, Qassem dismissed concerns over civilian suffering as the “price to pay for victory.”
A few days later, amid reports of progress in ceasefire negotiations, Hezbollah spokesman Mohamad Afif said the group had “enough weapons, equipment and supplies for a long battle” with Israel.
The IDF said it had killed more than 2,550 Hezbollah terrorists and wounded more than 5,000. Salim Ayish, a senior Hezbollah operative implicated in the 2005 assassination of Lebanese PM Rafiq al-Hariri, was killed in an airstrike in Al-Qusayr in Western Syria.
The IDF also said it had destroyed about 80% of Hezbollah’s medium-range rockets (with a 25-mile range), leaving it with fewer than 1,000 left. Of its roughly 44,000 short-range rockets, fewer than 10,000 remain, and all but about 100 precision-guided missiles have been neutralized.
The entrance of a tunnel about a mile from the Israeli border was found in a cemetery. Command and control rooms, sleeping quarters, and weapon caches were stored inside the tunnel.
BICOM described the deal in the works as a win for all parties:
The U.S. gets the end of the war it has sought.
The Israeli military can withdraw, and citizens can return to their homes in the north.
Hezbollah survives without being destroyed.
Iran gets to keep Hezbollah as a proxy, albeit in a substantially reduced capacity.
In return for Russia ensuring that no more weapons are transferred from Syria into Lebanon, the Biden administration will exempt Russian companies operating in Syria from sanctions.
On November 17, a rocket barrage damaged a Haifa synagogue. No worshippers were present at the time, and no injuries were reported. The same day, an Israeli airstrike killed Hezbollah media relations chief Mohammed Afif.
Contrary to fears before the war began, Hezbollah has either chosen or been unable to launch thousands of rockets at once to overwhelm Israel’s air defenses. Most of the 80-100 rockets and drones Hezbollah has fired have been intercepted or fallen in uninhabited areas. Few direct hits on structures have occurred, and many of the injuries suffered by civilians have been from fragments of interceptors or the missiles they blew up. In some cases, civilians left shelters too soon (they are advised to remain inside for at least ten minutes). Most homes in Israeli Arab towns do not have shelters, which is a reason for some of their casualties.
Rather than increasing the number of launches, Hezbollah began using heavier rockets and missiles with greater destructive power. Tal Beeri and Boaz Shapira suggested, “This escalation is aimed at creating a psychological impact and achieving a perceived victory by causing more substantial damage—both in terms of property and human casualties.”
Hezbollah Rocket Inventory
NAME
DIAMETER
LENGTH
WARHEAD
RANGE
Fadi 1
220 mm
6 m
83 kg
70 km
Fadi 2
302 mm
6 m
170 kg
100 km
Fadi 6
302 mm
6~ m
140 kg
225 km
Nasr 1
302 mm
6.5~ m
100 kg
100 km
Nasr 2
302 mm
140 kg
150 km
Fajr 5
333 mm
6.5 m
175 kg
75 km
Qader 1
620 mm
7.6 m
500 kg
190 km
Qader 2
620 mm
8.6 m
405 kg
250 km
Fateh 110
610 mm
8.6 n
500 kg
300 km
On November 20, the United States vetoed a Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire because it did not make the release of hostages a precondition for a truce.
Meanwhile, Israel continued to launch waves of airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and southern Lebanon. By mid-November, the IDF had effectively cleared most of the villages closest to Israel and expanded ground operations to the “second line” of villages within five miles of the border. The IDF destroyed any house that had been used by Hezbollah but left untouched those where no weapons were found.
“Our task is to make sure that there is no ammunition left and no enemy infrastructure left in the area so that in the end, it allows the political echelon to return the residents to the Galilee and the north,” Lt. Col. Roi Katz told the press. He added that it would now be “impossible” for Hezbollah “to enter and raid the territory of the State of Israel and attack the citizens of the Galilee with ease.”
Still, Hezbollah was bombarding Israel with some 100 rockets a day.
One rocket hit a UNIFIL post, injuring four Italian observers and prompting a complaint from the Italian government.
Ceasefire
On November 26, 2024, a ceasefire in south Lebanon was brokered, with the agreement set to take effect at 4:00 am (Israel time) the following day. This ceasefire established a 60-day truce, marking a significant temporary de-escalation in hostilities between Lebanon and Israel. The primary condition of the agreement was that the IDF would withdraw from southern Lebanon by the end of the 60 days. In return, Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group, is required to pull back beyond the Litani River, which has historically served as a geographical boundary. This provision aims to reduce Hezbollah’s influence in the area and lower the risk of further military provocations between the two sides.
Approximate Ceasefire Lines
During the truce, the Lebanese army will deploy into southern Lebanon to assume control of the area. At the same time, UNIFIL will be significantly reinforced to monitor and enforce the ceasefire. International forces, including British, German, and French troops, will participate in this enhanced UNIFIL presence. This international reinforcement is designed to prevent Hezbollah from re-establishing itself in the region and to ensure stability. On November 29, 2024, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that Major General Jasper Jeffers (SOCCENT) and Amos Hochstein, Senior Advisor to the President, will co-chair a U.S.-led mechanism to monitor and implement the Israel-Lebanon cessation of hostilities. The group includes the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), UNIFIL, and France.
One of the critical aspects of the ceasefire is creating a robust enforcement mechanism involving international partners. Should Hezbollah violate the terms of the truce by rearming itself, operating south of the Litani River, or engaging in other hostile actions, Israel retains the right to take military action.
While the ceasefire temporarily relieved residents of northern Israel, it did not immediately allow them to return to their homes. The Israeli government continued providing financial support, in the form of stipends, to those who had been evacuated due to the ongoing conflict. Whether residents can safely return will depend on the security situation and the effectiveness of the ceasefire.
The ceasefire agreement included a “side document” in the form of an official U.S. letter that ensured Israel’s security interests by providing guarantees. These included allowing Israel to target Hezbollah operatives, preventing attempts to rearm the group, and addressing regional threats. The letter outlined commitments such as intelligence-sharing on violations, including Hezbollah’s infiltration into the Lebanese army, and authorizing the U.S. to share relevant information with the Lebanese government. The U.S. further pledged to cooperate with Israel to counter Iran’s destabilizing activities in Lebanon, including arms transfers and support for proxies. Affirming Israel’s right to self-defense under international law, the U.S. recognized its right to act against threats from Lebanese territory if Lebanon failed to address them. Israel, in turn, committed to using its air operations over Lebanon strictly for surveillance, avoiding undue disruption like breaking the sound barrier.
Several political and strategic considerations influence the timing of the ceasefire deal. There was concern that the United Nations Security Council might impose a unilateral ceasefire on Israel, forcing it to halt its actions in southern Lebanon without Israel’s agreement. By negotiating the terms of the truce, Israel ensures that it retains control over the situation. Another factor in the timing of the ceasefire is the upcoming change in U.S. leadership. The 60-day period allowed Israel to reassess the situation as a new U.S. administration takes office, which could bring shifts in diplomatic priorities and strategies.
The ceasefire is not meant to be a permanent solution or the end of the conflict. Instead, it is a temporary measure that will be evaluated based on the situation. It allows Israel to regroup and prepare for potential future confrontations if necessary. The terms of the ceasefire will be closely monitored, and any violations will prompt Israel to respond to ensure its security and the stability of the region.
In his public statement about the ceasefire, Netanyahu outlined three reasons for the truce with Lebanon. First, he emphasized the importance of focusing on the Iranian threat, explaining that the ceasefire would allow Israel to shift its attention to Iran’s threats to the region. By addressing this threat, Israel hopes to strengthen its security posture amid broader regional instability. Second, Netanyahu highlighted the need to arm and regroup, noting that the ceasefire would allow the IDF to reorganize, rearm, and assess the situation. This would enable Israel to ensure its readiness for any future military actions, if necessary, after the 60-day truce period. Finally, Netanyahu mentioned the strategic objective of separating the fronts and isolating Hamas. By securing a ceasefire with Hezbollah, Israel could reduce the multi-front war and focus its efforts on Hamas. This would help isolate Hamas, weakening its position and limiting its potential support from other regional players, thus diminishing its operational capabilities. Outside Gaza, IDF troops, particularly reservists, would also get a much-needed respite and be spared further casualties.
In a statement following the brokering of the ceasefire, President Biden highlighted the U.S. role in facilitating the agreement, reaffirmed Israel’s right to self-defense, and stressed the importance of supporting Lebanon’s sovereignty. He also outlined a broader vision for Middle East peace, including a Palestinian state and normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. In a separate joint statement, Presidents Biden and Macron announced the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, praising the agreement. They committed to working with both countries to ensure the ceasefire is fully implemented and emphasized efforts to support capacity-building in Lebanon to promote regional stability and prosperity.
Israel had objected to any French involvement in the negotiations until Macron withdrew his commitment to enforce the International Criminal Court arrest warrant against Netanyahu.
Biden Applies Pressure
Israel claimed the Biden administration threatened to block further weapons deliveries and said it would not veto another UN ceasefire resolution. U.S. officials denied this. Nevertheless, after agreeing to the ceasefire, Netanyahu noted the arms issue was resolved. The administration subsequently announced a $680 million arms sale to replenish the precision weapons depleted during the war. Israel Hayom reported that Israel would also receive previously restricted weapons systems and components that would substantially improve its strike capabilities.
The Israeli national security cabinet officially approved the ceasefire by a vote of 10 ministers to one. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir was the lone holdout. He was not the only Israeli to have qualms about the agreement. Others feared Hezbollah would use the time to rebuild with Iran’s help and that the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL would be unable and unwilling to enforce the ceasefire, as was the case following the ceasefire to end the Second Lebanon War in 2006. Senior IDF officials were also skeptical. One source told the Jerusalem Post, “No one is counting on the Lebanese army to destroy Hezbollah’s terror houses and outposts in place of the IDF.” The fear, according to the Post, was that “failing to eliminate the terror infrastructure created for the Radwan Force’s planned raid on the Galilee would allow Hezbollah to quickly rebuild its capabilities.”
The IDF struck over 12,500 targets, killing as many as 3,500 Hezbollah fighters and capturing some 12,000 explosive devices and drones; 13,000 rockets, launchers, and anti-tank and anti-aircraft missile systems; and 121,000 pieces of communications equipment and computers. It also began constructing a new triple-layered fence with sensors and an observation system to deter and monitor activity near the northern border.
Even with most of its leaders and hundreds of fighters dead, its command centers destroyed, and most of its forces in retreat beyond the Litani River, Nasrallah’s son and successor declared victory for Hezbollah. Muhammad Mahdi Nasrallah praised Allah for allowing his family to stay in “Lebanon until the victory was declared,” while Naim Qassem asserted Hezbollah had stood firm and prevented Israeli residents from returning to their homes in the north. “We won,” Qassem said, “because we prevented the enemy from destroying Hezbollah, stopped them from ending the resistance, and defeated them because the enemy was forced to justify the agreement.”
The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is under strain, with France and the United States accusing Israel of violations. France reported 52 Israeli incidents, including drone flights over Beirut and attacks causing civilian deaths, criticizing Israel for bypassing the international monitoring committee. Israel defended its actions, citing Hezbollah violations that required an immediate response and insisting aerial surveillance operations over Lebanese airspace would continue to enforce the ceasefire agreement. U.S. officials, including Amos Hochstein, who brokered the deal, also warned Israel about the ceasefire breaches, particularly the return of drones to Lebanese airspace.
Tensions escalated when, on December 2, 2024, Hezbollah fired mortars at Mount Dov, claiming retaliation for Israeli enforcement actions. The IDF responded by attacking Hezbollah operatives and 20 rocket launchers throughout Lebanon, with senior officials warning that failing to act could lead to prolonged conflict. Both Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz pledged a substantial response to Hezbollah violations, while opposition leaders criticized the ceasefire as ineffective.
The day before, Israel intercepted an Iranian plane traveling to Syria that it suspected of carrying arms for Hezbollah, forcing it to turn around. Israel also warned Iran not to try to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah while coming to the aid of the Assad regime as it fights off a new rebel onslaught.
Despite violations of the ceasefire, Northern Command chief Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin told the mayors of Israel’s displaced northern communities they could begin rebuilding the towns damaged by Hezbollah’s attacks in the prior 14 months. Some residents were beginning to return home. Assuming the ceasefire held, the majority were expected to return on February 1, 2025.
Three weeks into the ceasefire, Israeli troops were still carrying out operations when terrorists or their arsenals were located. One division had reached the Litani River and was continuing to destroy Hezbollah strongholds and collect weapons. Several dozen terrorists were also killed trying to sneak into southern Lebanon or carry out an attack. At the end of December, the IDF displayed some of the more than 10,000 weapons it captured in over 30 villages in southern Lebanon. They included 6,840 RPG rockets and anti-tank missiles, including 340 Russian-made Kornets, along with their launchers; 9,000 explosive devices and grenades; 2,250 unguided rockets and mortars; 2,700 assault rifles; 2,860 other guns, including sniper rifles; 60 anti-aircraft missiles; 60,800 pieces of electronic equipment, communication devices, computers, and documents; and 300 pieces of surveillance equipment.
Israel is committed to fully withdrawing from Lebanon by January 26, 2025; however, the IDF said it might have to stay longer because the Lebanese army was not deploying quickly enough to take control of areas their troops planned to leave. Mahmoud Qamati, a member of parliament from Hezbollah, issued a threat: “We are committed to patience for 60 days, but on the 61st day, the situation will change if enemy forces remain anywhere in southern Lebanon, and we will deal with them as occupying forces. The resistance is present, ready, and strong. Let America and France understand that our red lines will not be violated and that we are ready for all possibilities.”
Israel ignored the threat and continued operations. In one village on the ridge above Rosh Hanikra and Kibbutz Rosh Hanikra and adjacent to the main UNIFIL headquarters in southern Lebanon, the IDF found “unbelievable quantities of arms. There were warehouses, lookout points and military equipment in virtually every home.” One soldier said, “We found ready launchers and weapons and ammunition hidden among the trees, hidden in a formation aimed directly at Israel… The rocket launchers were positioned close to the trees and under the branches; if we hadn’t physically entered, we wouldn’t have spotted them, either from the air or when driving by. We really had to enter the area and scour it; the closer we got to the UN headquarters and to Israel, you found more arms because it was closer to Israel. It felt like the UN was covering for them.”
After ringing in the new year, the IDF continued to find underground tunnels, headquarters, arms warehouses, loaded launchers, and trucks with launchers in other areas. Israel also informed the U.S. that it would not withdraw from southern Lebanon after the 60-day period stipulated in the ceasefire agreement. This prompted a renewed threat from Qassem:
There is no timetable that determines the performance of the resistance, neither by agreement nor after the end of the 60 days. Our patience may run out before the 60 days, or it may continue. The resistance leadership decides. When we decide what we will do, you will see it live.
With the ceasefire looking more tenuous, Hochstein returned to the region and told senior Lebanese officials that either the Lebanese army would deploy 10,000 soldiers in southern Lebanon soon, or the Israeli withdrawal would be delayed by 30-60 days.
In December 2024, the Times of Israel reported that U.S. intelligence assessments before Israel launched its ground operation in Lebanon envisioned “an all-out war in which hundreds — if not thousands — of Israelis would be killed.” American officials said this was consistent with the opinion of Israeli intelligence. “There’s a narrative out there that [Israel’s major offensive against Hezbollah] would have happened a lot earlier if the Americans hadn’t applied pressure on Israel and prevented it. That’s not what happened. Everybody was very concerned on both sides about what this would look like and how severe it would be,” a U.S. official told TOI.
Both appraisals proved “wildly inaccurate.”
“Ultimately, they moved forward anyway, but it wasn’t under the assumption that it wouldn’t come at a major cost. The Israelis just believed that this cost was necessary,” the U.S. official added.
By the end of 2024, Israel had been attacked by some 15,400 rockets. Due to the fighting, 55,104 acres of land were burned.
A house in Kiryat Shmona hit by Hezbollah fire
As the time for Israel’s withdrawal approached, Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers, head of the international oversight committee monitoring the ceasefire, reportedly agreed to Israel’s proposal to establish military outposts on three strategic uninhabited hills inside Lebanon overlooking southern areas previously used by Hezbollah.
UNIFIL appeared to be performing better than in the past at fulfilling its mission following the ceasefire. In the first two months, for example, peacekeepers discovered more than “100 weapons caches” belonging to Hezbollah and its allies.
Lebanon Elects a President
Another hopeful sign was the election of Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s president on January 9, 2025. Aoun had led the LAF, and his ascension, along with the designation of International Court of Justice chief Nawaf Salam as prime minister, was viewed as an indication of Hezbollah and Iran’s loss of influence. Aoun vowed to uphold the Lebanese government’s monopoly on the right to bear arms, that is, to keep them out of the hands of the terrorists and to restore Lebanon’s sovereignty.
Israel had said that it would likely stay in Lebanon beyond the date agreed upon for its withdrawal because it had not completed clearing the area of Hezbollah assets, and the Lebanese army had not deployed quickly enough to replace IDF troops. Biden had reportedly considered granting Israel an additional 30 days; however, President-elect Donald Trump quashed that idea by demanding that Israel withdraw in accordance with the ceasefire deal on January 26, 2025.
On January 24, 2025, Israel announced it would not entirely withdraw its forces from Lebanon by January 26, the 60-day goal outlined in the ceasefire with Beirut, citing the Lebanese Army’s failure to deploy effectively in southern Lebanon as required under the agreement. The withdrawal is conditional on Hezbollah retreating beyond the Litani River and Lebanon’s full ceasefire enforcement. Ongoing IDF operations in Lebanon have uncovered and dismantled Hezbollah weapons caches, tunnels, and attack platforms near the border. Coordinated with the U.S., discussions are underway to extend the withdrawal deadline. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that Israel will prioritize its citizens’ safety and ensure the conflict’s objectives are met before completing the withdrawal.
On January 26, 2025, the White House announced an extension for Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon, moving the deadline to February 18. Additionally, the governments of Lebanon, Israel, and the United States will begin negotiations to secure the return of Lebanese prisoners captured after October 7, 2023.
On January 27, 2025, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem declared in a televised address that the group would not tolerate any extension of the 60-day deadline for Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon. He emphasized that Israel must withdraw immediately as the agreed-upon period had expired, rejecting any justifications for delays.
On January 28, 2025, a UAV attack occurred in the Nabatieh area of southern Lebanon, resulting in seven casualties, a large fire, and billowing smoke. The Al-Mayadeen channel, which is affiliated with Hezbollah, reported that an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was used in the attack. The Lebanese army also claimed that the IDF opened fire on military personnel and civilians on the Yaron-Maroun al-Ras road, injuring a soldier and three civilians who were escorting residents returning to the villages in the south. Previously, Lebanese rioters acted under the influence of Hezbollah, and the IDF fired at the rioters, resulting in the deaths of 22 people, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health.
On January 31, 2025, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted strikes against Hezbollah targets in the village of Janta in eastern Lebanon, near the Syrian border. These strikes targeted infrastructure used for smuggling weapons from Syria into Lebanon and a site with underground infrastructure for developing and manufacturing weapons. The strikes followed a breach of the ceasefire agreement by Hezbollah, which sent a surveillance drone into Israeli territory, which the IAF then intercepted. According to the Lebanese health ministry, two people were killed in the strikes. The Israeli military has stated that no terrorist activity would be accepted and that Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon to protect Israeli interests.
On February 2, 2025, Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israel will not tolerate drone launches from Lebanon, suggesting that either the drone threats will cease or Hezbollah will be eliminated. This statement was made during a visit to an IDF position in Lebanon. Katz also cautioned the future leaders of Hezbollah not to underestimate Israel’s resolve, referencing the recent deaths of previous leaders.
Israel was also growing increasingly concerned with collusion between the LAF and Hezbollah and the Iranians smuggling tens of millions of dollars of cash to its proxy through the Beirut airport.
Breaking his silence since leaving the government, former Defense Minister Gallant said in an interview that Netanyahu’s rejection of his plan to attack Hezbollah on October 11, 2023, was “the greatest security missed opportunity in Israeli history, not just of this war.” Contradicting Gallant Mossad chief David Barnea defended the decision to wait. There were “ten times as many beepers” in Hezbollah’s hands when they were detonated on September 17 than at the beginning of the war, he said, “and two times as many walkie-talkies were detonated.”
On February 7, 2025, a week and a half before the ceasefire extension on the northern border expires, U.S. Deputy Middle East Peace Envoy Morgan Ortagus met with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. She stated that “Hezbollah will not be able to terrorize the Lebanese people”, that “Israel defeated Hezbollah,” and asserted that Hezbollah must not be part of the next Lebanese government. The following day, Lebanon formed its first full-fledged government since 2022. After the U.S. opposition, Hezbollah’s influence was limited but not completely diminished. Hezbollah’s ally, Amal, secured five cabinet seats, preventing the group from obtaining veto power. Washington welcomed the government’s formation, hoping it would rebuild state institutions.
On February 11, 2025, it was reported that Prime Minister Netanyahu asked President Trump to support another extension to February 28, arguing that an IDF presence at key border points is necessary to prevent Hezbollah’s resurgence. Israel claims the Lebanese Army has failed to meet ceasefire obligations by not effectively deploying in the south or curbing Hezbollah’s activities. The United States reportedly denied Israel’s request, and Washington insisted Israel stick to the February 18 deadline.
Nevertheless, the Israeli government appeared confident that it had achieved the goal of making it safe for residents to return to their homes in the north. After nearly 18 months, the military announced that evacuees could return home starting March 1. Some local leaders and residents were unhappy because the government had not yet helped rebuild homes that were destroyed by Hezbollah rockets. Concerns were also raised over the replacement of IDF forces with the Lebanese army in areas near kibbutzim along the border. Wariness is also attributed to the absence of a political agreement to ensure the North's long-term security. Hezbollah was receiving money from Iran and trying to rebuild its military capabilities.
Meanwhile, Syrian authorities accused Hezbollah of sponsoring smuggling gangs, and Israel carried out airstrikes on Hezbollah targets, including a key arms-smuggling tunnel.
On February 13, 2025, an Iranian Mahan Air flight to Lebanon, suspected of carrying millions in cash for Hezbollah, was grounded in Tehran following an Israeli warning. Israel, supported by the U.S., threatened to act against civilian flights transferring Iranian funds to Hezbollah, raising concerns that Beirut’s airport could become a target. Lebanon denied landing rights to the flight, which sparked protests by Hezbollah supporters and diplomatic tensions with Iran. Iran condemned Israel’s actions as violations of international law and Lebanon’s sovereignty. The following day, the Lebanese army reported that protests, including acts of violence and vandalism, occurred in several areas, especially around Rafic Hariri International Airport. These incidents involve assaults on military personnel, attacks on UNIFIL vehicles, and attempts to block the airport road. The Lebanese army said it would take firm action to preserve public order and arrest those who disturb it. UNIFIL later confirmed that a convoy taking peacekeepers to Beirut airport was violently attacked. A car was set on fire, and UNIFIL’s outgoing Deputy Force Commander was injured. UNIFIL demanded an investigation by Lebanese authorities. The U.S. condemned the attack and commended the swift response of the Lebanese army to prevent further violence and take measures to hold the attackers accountable for their actions. On February 15, Lebanon reportedly arrested more than 25 people linked to the incident.
The IDF confirmed carrying out an airstrike in southern Lebanon on February 15, 2025, killing Abbas Ahmad Hamoud, a senior operative in Hezbollah’s aerial forces responsible for recent drone launches against Israel in violation of the ceasefire. Defense Minister Israel Katz praised the strike, warning that Hezbollah’s use of drones would not be tolerated, stating, “If there are drones, there will be no Hezbollah.” The IDF accused Hamoud of repeatedly breaching the ceasefire by launching surveillance and explosive-laden drones as part of Hezbollah’s Unit 127. Lebanese media reported that two people were killed in the strike.
On February 16, 2025, Lebanon told Iran that flights between Tehran and Beirut would remain suspended until February 18, aligning with the expected completion of Israel’s military withdrawal. The suspension was extended, however, after the U.S. warned Beirut that Israel might shoot the planes down. According to Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, Turkey is also cooperating with Iran to smuggle money into Lebanon.
Israel Withdraws
On February 18, 2025, the IDF began withdrawing from southern Lebanon. Despite objections from the Lebanese government, Israel insisted on maintaining a more significant defensive presence along the border, with five military outposts remaining indefinitely. These outposts, staffed by company-sized units, are intended to prevent Hezbollah from re-establishing a foothold, given the Lebanese Army’s limited effectiveness in enforcing the ceasefire terms. Despite Hezbollah’s threats, Israel believes these positions are strategically necessary to minimize conflict with the broader Lebanese public while maintaining an aggressive posture against Hezbollah incursions and arms smuggling.
According to the Times of Israel, these are the locations of the outposts:
Al-Labouna Outpost – The westernmost outpost, located on the ridge above Shlomi. It is intended to control the hills overlooking Western Galilee.
Jabal Balat Outpost – Situated above Zar’it. Known to veterans of the Lebanon War and the subsequent years as “Karkum Outpost.” It will protect the area around Shtula and Zar’it.
Jabal al-Deir Outpost – Overlooking Avivim and Malkia. It dominates the area of Bint Jbeil, Maroun al-Ras, and Wadi Saluki – names well-remembered by Israelis who fought in previous Lebanon wars, carrying both traumatic memories and explosive devices.
Markaba-Khulta Outpost – High above Margaliot in the Galilee Panhandle.
Al-Hamas Outpost – The northernmost and easternmost outpost protects Metula and overlooks the Lebanese towns of al-Khiam and Kila from above.
Approximate locations of the five IDF outposts
The IDF has improved intelligence efforts to differentiate between civilians and militants and is coordinating with the U.S. to monitor Hezbollah’s actions. Additionally, the military has primarily cleared the border area of Hezbollah weapons and hopes to facilitate the return of northern Israeli residents by March 2.
Israel said the Lebanese Army was doing a better job than in the past, but still was “limited and insufficient.” Hence, in addition to the outposts on Lebanese soil, Israel has significantly increased its military deployment to defend the northern border.
On the same day, the IDF reported that its forces struck Hezbollah operatives after they were identified operating at a site for the production and storage of the terrorist organization’s strategic weapons in the Beqaa region.
The ceasefire has also not prevented Israel from targeting terrorists. The IAF eliminated Mahran Ali Nasser Al-Din, a key figure in Hezbollah’s Unit 4400 responsible for smuggling weapons into Lebanon, Mohammed Mahdi Ali Shaheen, a key member of Hezbollah’s Geographical Unit, and Khadir Sa’id Hashem, the Radwan forces’ naval chief.
On February 28, 2025, Lebanese authorities at Beirut airport seized $2.5 million in cash hidden by a traveler from Turkey, reportedly intended for Hezbollah, marking the first known seizure of its kind, according to sources.
Though Israel maintains that Hezbollah infiltrates the Lebanese army, the Trump administration believes it can play a vital role in weakening Hezbollah and ensuring the ceasefire holds. To assist, the State Department unfroze $95 million in funding for Lebanese forces.
On March 7, 2025, the IDF launched airstrikes in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah military sites and operatives, as well as suspects acting against Israeli forces. The IDF struck a Hezbollah operative involved in rebuilding terror infrastructure and the army sites storing weapons and rocket launchers.
Peace Talks Begin
Representatives from Israel, Lebanon, the United States, and France met on March 11, 2025, in Naqoura, on the Lebanese side of the Israel-Lebanon border, to initiate negotiations to resolve disputes and prevent renewed conflict. Led by U.S. Deputy Middle East Envoy Morgan Ortagus, the talks were framed as “military to military” to avoid accusations of Lebanese normalization with Israel. As a goodwill gesture, Israel agreed to release five Lebanese detainees.
Lebanese President Aoun has signaled a shift away from Iranian influence, aligning more with Saudi Arabia and the Arab consensus. During his first foreign visit as President to the kingdom, he had said, “When one occupies Beirut, destroys Damascus, threatens Amman, makes Baghdad suffer or takes Sanaa ... it is impossible for anyone to claim that this serves Palestine.” He continued, still without naming Iran, “Lebanon has suffered a lot, but it has learned from its sufferings.”
Moving forward, three U.S.-led working groups will address border disputes, prisoner issues, and Israeli outposts in Lebanon, aiming for a long-term agreement beyond past ceasefires.
Meanwhile, the situation on the ground was far from peaceful. On March 22, Hezbollah launched six rockets, the first attack since December 2024. Air defenses intercepted three projectiles that crossed the border, while the other three rockets fell short in Lebanon. Israel responded in the following days with strikes on Hezbollah targets and targeted assassinations, including a drone hit that killed Hassan Kamal Halawi, the chief of Hezbollah’s anti-tank missile unit in southern Lebanon.
After one of the rockets was directed at Metula, Defense Minister Israel Katz said, “Metula will be treated the same as Beirut.” The U.S. then made it clear that they were opposed to escalation and asked Israel not to attack Beirut or critical infrastructure.
Two rockets were fired at northern Israel from Lebanon on March 28, prompting the IDF to carry out strikes in southern Lebanon and targeting a drone storage facility in Beirut, a first raid on the capital since the November ceasefire went into effect. Hezbollah denied it was responsible for the rockets, and Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called on the military to “uncover those behind the irresponsible rocket fire that threatens Lebanon’s stability and security,” and arrest them.
Yedioth Ahronoth reported that President Trump advised Netanyahu not to target Beirut’s capital or critical infrastructure, including the airport, port, and electricity company.
Israel struck Beirut a second time on April 1 in a targeted killing of Hassan Bdair, a member of Hezbollah’s Unit 3900 and the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The following day, Defense Minister Israel Katz affirmed that the IDF would indefinitely maintain its presence at five strategic military positions along the Lebanese border despite a February deadline for withdrawal under a ceasefire agreement. The positions, including the “Margaliot Defender” post near Markaba, aim to protect Israeli border communities and deter Hezbollah, which has continued attacks since the ceasefire began in November. Katz emphasized that Israel’s continued presence is necessary due to Hezbollah’s failure to withdraw north of the Litani River and disarm, as required by the agreement. Katz, asserting U.S. support for Israel’s actions, warned of forceful retaliation for any attack, including strikes on Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut.
A Saudi news outlet reported that Hezbollah was using Beirut’s seaport to smuggle weapons into Lebanon.
In a potentially significant shift, a Hezbollah official indicated in mid-April that the group would consider disarming—something long thought unthinkable—if Israel fully withdrew from Lebanese territory. Under the terms of the ceasefire agreement, the Lebanese government is obligated to dismantle all Hezbollah military infrastructure and seize weapons, beginning with areas south of the Litani River. President Aoun acknowledged that the government lacks the power to disarm Hezbollah forcibly and expressed hope for a negotiated agreement. Meanwhile, anti-Hezbollah members of parliament called for a firm disarmament timeline, with one MP proposing a six-month deadline.
“It’s clear that Hezbollah has to be disarmed, and it’s clear that Israel is not going to accept terrorists shooting at them, into their country, and that’s a position we understand,” U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagus said.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese Army was said to have nearly completed dismantling Hezbollah’s infrastructure south of the river and, for the first time, was entering Hezbollah bases north of the Litani. Some 400 Hezbollah commanders reportedly were fleeing to South American countries.
The Lebanese army announced on April 20, 2025, that it had successfully foiled a planned rocket attack on Israel, marking the first such prevention since a ceasefire in November halted fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Acting on intelligence, troops raided an apartment near Sidon, seized rockets and launch pads, and arrested several individuals linked to the plot. These arrests are connected to earlier detentions last week, which involved suspects, some of them Palestinian, accused of launching rockets at Israel in late March, prompting Israeli airstrikes in response.
On April 21, President Aoun stated, “When I spoke of the state’s exclusive right to arms in my oath of office, it wasn’t just words. I said it because I firmly believe that the Lebanese people do not want war and can no longer bear its consequences or even the language of war.” He added, enforcement hinges on the “right conditions.” The statement came two days after Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem declared, “We will not allow anyone to disarm Hezbollah or the resistance.”
In coordination with the U.S., which had previously expressed concerns about Israeli attacks on Beirut, the IAF struck a precision missile storage facility in the Dahieh neighborhood. This is one of Hezbollah’s strongholds, and Israel declared that it would not be a haven. “Israel will not allow Hezbollah to grow stronger and pose any threat to it — anywhere in Lebanon,” Netanyahu and Katz said. “The Dahiya district in Beirut will not serve as a sanctuary city for the terrorist organization Hezbollah.”
Lebanon’s new government, backed by the U.S., is reclaiming control of Beirut’s international airport, long dominated by Hezbollah and used for smuggling and circumventing inspections, as part of a broader campaign to curb the militant group’s influence. The government has removed Hezbollah-linked staff, enforced laws, suspended Iran flights, and begun deploying AI-powered surveillance, all while dismantling Hezbollah positions in the south under a ceasefire with Israel. The group’s smuggling routes have been disrupted, and it now faces financial and military strain following heavy Israeli strikes and Assad’s fall in Syria. A proposed second airport is intended to further reduce Hezbollah’s strategic leverage.
In May 2025, Hezbollah reportedly urged the IRGC to withdraw its officers from Lebanon, citing fears that Israel may target them to undermine Tehran’s position in ongoing nuclear talks with the United States. Senior Hezbollah figures are concerned that Israel, particularly Prime Minister Netanyahu, may attempt to assassinate IRGC officers to disrupt Iran’s nuclear negotiations and escalate tensions. The group closely monitors diplomatic developments, hoping for progress in the talks between Iran and the U.S. The IRGC, which operates in Lebanon under tight security, has been targeted by Israel in the past, leading to retaliatory missile attacks from Hezbollah.
The same month, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions on four individuals based in Lebanon, Iran, and Africa for facilitating financial support to Hezbollah. The action targets senior Hezbollah officials and financial operatives, including Mu’in Daqiq Al-‘Amili and Jihad Alami, for transferring funds from Iran, accountant Fadi Nehme for managing finances through a Hezbollah-linked firm, and Hasan Abdallah Ni’mah for coordinating multimillion-dollar operations across Africa, including aid to the Islamic Movement of Nigeria. The sanctions freeze their U.S.-linked assets and prohibit U.S. persons from engaging with them, reinforcing the Trump administration’s broader campaign to disrupt Iran’s support for terrorist proxies following Hezbollah’s efforts to rebuild after its war with Israel.
The Weakening of Hezbollah
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam delivered a striking message to The Wall Street Journal: “All over the Lebanese territory, the state should have a monopoly on arms.” This explicit declaration of intent reflects a government now taking unprecedented steps to reassert sovereignty and roll back the influence of Hezbollah. According to the report, both U.S. and Israeli officials were “pleasantly surprised” by the pace and seriousness of Lebanon’s campaign, noting significant progress with the help of Israeli intelligence in dismantling Hezbollah’s weapons stockpiles and military infrastructure in the south. Salam affirmed that the government had already “achieved roughly 80% of its objectives in disarming militias.”
An Israeli military official echoed the growing optimism, telling the Journal, “We do see a lot of areas where the Lebanese army is way more effective than expected. The IDF is generally pleased by this trend and we are expecting it to continue.” This marks a rare moment of alignment between Israel and Lebanon over a shared strategic goal: reducing the threat posed by Hezbollah and restoring legitimate state authority across Lebanese territory.
Still, experts caution that Hezbollah’s entrenchment in the north remains a formidable challenge. Randa Slim, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute at Johns Hopkins University, argued that confrontation may be unwise. “Instead, they need to make Hezbollah’s unwillingness to disarm untenable and politically costly to them by linking reconstruction of Shia-majority areas to their disarmament,” she said.
Prime Minister Salam acknowledged the delicate balance but remained resolute: “We don’t want to put the country onto a civil-war track, but believe me, this is not going to affect our commitment to the need to extend and consolidate the authority of the state.”
In addition to confronting Hezbollah, Israeli officials have expressed approval of Lebanon’s efforts to disarm Palestinian terror groups within refugee camps and prevent them from launching attacks across the border—a further indication that Beirut’s new course may finally be shifting the regional calculus.
The IDF remained active in southern Lebanon, seeking and destroying remaining Hezbollah sites. On June 27, 2025, for example, the IDF launched a targeted airstrike on a key Hezbollah command site in Beaufort Ridge, southern Lebanon. The underground facility, previously rendered inoperable, was being rebuilt to regain control over firepower and defense systems. In response to intelligence showing renewed activity, Israeli jets struck the site and surrounding terror infrastructure. The IDF called Hezbollah’s rehabilitation efforts a clear violation of Israeli-Lebanese understandings and a threat to regional stability. Reaffirming its stance, the IDF stated it will not allow such sites to be reactivated and will act decisively to protect Israeli security.
Naim Qassem, who became Hezbollah’s secretary-general after Nasrallah and his presumed successor Hashem Safieddine were assassinated, rejected the Lebanese government’s request to surrender the group’s missile arsenal. “Threats will not cause us to surrender or lay down our arms,” Qassem declared. “We are surprised by the request from the state of Lebanon to hand over our missiles; this is a defensive capability of the organization.”
His remarks came days before Thomas Barrack, Trump’s envoy to Lebanon, said he was “unbelievably satisfied” with the Lebanese government’s response to the U.S. proposal calling for Hezbollah to disarm within four months in exchange for Israel halting air strikes and withdrawing its troops from south Lebanon. Barrack also said Hezbollah needed reassurance that it would still have a future in Lebanon as a major political party.
On July 9, the IDF launched its first ground incursions in months into parts of southern Lebanon to dismantle military infrastructure belonging to the militant group Hezbollah. The military said it had located and destroyed weapons depots and firing positions. Eight months after a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah, the IDF launched a focused ground operation in southern Lebanon to dismantle reestablished Hezbollah military positions. Based on intelligence, Israeli forces located and destroyed weapons depots, firing positions, and an underground storage facility in areas like the Jabal Blat ridge and Labbouneh, near the Israeli border towns of Zarit and Shlomi. These operations were conducted by reservist soldiers and aimed at enforcing the ceasefire terms, which permit Israeli actions to prevent Hezbollah from regaining a foothold near the border.
Barrack was pressuring the Lebanese government to enforce the terms of the ceasefire and to disarm Hezbollah. On July 30, Qassem said, “anyone calling today for the surrender of weapons, whether internally or externally, on the Arab or the international stage, is serving the Israeli project,” and accused Barrack of using “intimidation and threats” with the aim of “aiding Israel.”
Maj. Gen. Uri Gordin told Ynet in late July that Israel has destroyed 70% of Hezbollah’s military assets, including its rocket systems and command infrastructure. Its elite Radwan force had been halved. Yet Hezbollah is urgently rebuilding, expecting an Israeli strike and preparing both for defense and a limited ground assault, including plans to kidnap soldiers and civilians.
The IDF’s Northern Command focused on preventing Hezbollah from restoring its firepower or reestablishing positions in southern Lebanon. A key target is the “Badr Zone” north of the Litani, where Israeli drones and jets hit weapons sites based on increasingly precise intelligence.
Gordin noted that the Lebanese Armed Forces were upholding the ceasefire by blocking Hezbollah’s access to arms caches in the south—a development made possible by U.S. leadership of the ceasefire oversight committee, which he called a major diplomatic win.
Still, Israeli officials say the ultimate goal is not just containment but disarmament—eliminating Hezbollah as an armed actor in Lebanon. While not immediately achievable, they see it as realistic.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is reportedly aligned with this vision. “It is the duty of all political parties… to seize this historic opportunity without hesitation and push for the exclusivity of weapons in the hands of the army and security forces and no one else,” Aoun said on July 31. But in Jerusalem, officials warned that unless the West helps Lebanon recover economically, Hezbollah will keep exploiting Iranian support and domestic collapse to preserve its power base.
Meanwhile, in mid-July 2025, the Israeli government announced a $297 million plan for rehabilitating 28 communities damaged in the fighting with Hezbollah. In late October, $308 million was released for the rehabilitation and economic recovery program.
The IDF continued daily operations in southern Lebanon and sought out Palestinian and Hezbollah commanders for elimination. In August, for example, the head of the operations department of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) was eliminated in a drone strike and the Hezbollah intelligence commander of the Radwan invasion force was killed in an Israeli airstrike.
Lebanese Government to Disarm Hezbollah
In July 2025, Saudi news channel Al-Hadath reported that approximately 4,000 Hezbollah operatives were killed and around 2,000 others deserted following the assassination of Nasrallah. It said that Hezbollah still had approximately 60,000 members. The LAF, it noted, controlled about 80% of the territory south of the Litani River.
In August, Lebanon’s government agreed to a landmark plan to decommission Hezbollah’s weapons and assert full sovereignty over southern Lebanon for the first time in over 50 years. The move adopts U.S. envoy Thomas Barrack’s four-stage ceasefire implementation plan from the 2024 war:
Stage 1 (by the end of 2025): Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) take 15 southern positions; Israel halts offensive actions but retains strongpoints; the 1996 monitoring committee resumes work.
Stage 2 (45 days): Lebanon begins disarming militias; Israel withdraws 3 of 5 strongpoints.
Stage 3 (30 days): Hezbollah fully leaves the south; Israel vacates remaining strongpoints; displaced civilians return.
Stage 4 (30 days): All heavy weapons dismantled; IDF south of the border, LAF north, certified.
Hezbollah condemned the decision as a “grave sin” and accused the government of bowing to foreign pressure. Hezbollah and Amal ministers walked out, while anti-Hezbollah factions called the move “historic.”
U.S. envoy Barrack hailed the decision as a bold step toward “one people, one army” and compliance with Resolution 1701 and the Taif Agreement. The LAF has already dismissed a Hezbollah-linked intelligence chief, signaling commitment to the plan.
Meanwhile, the U.S. maintained that the LAF had made sufficient progress in exerting control over southern Lebanon that UNIFIL’s support was no longer needed. On August 28, 2025, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2790, extending UNIFIL’s mandate for a final time until December 31, 2026. The resolution calls for an orderly withdrawal of UNIFIL within one year after that date, followed by the mission’s liquidation.
This was a decision Israel long favored.
Israel was also pleased by the announcement on September 5, 2025, by Lebanese information minister Paul Morcos that “The Lebanese army will begin implementing the [Hezbollah disarmament] plan.” He cautioned, however, that this would be “in accordance with the available capabilities, which are limited in terms of logistics, material and human resources.” The details of the government plan were declared secret and approved after Hezbollah and its allies withdrew from the deliberations.
On September 9, Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi told AFP the LAF will fully disarm Hezbollah near the border with Israel within three months.
Two days later, the IDF said it struck hundreds of Hezbollah heavy vehicles in southern Lebanon used to rebuild its terror infrastructure, killing one person. Israel accused Hezbollah of violating the ceasefire and endangering civilians, while Lebanon’s president condemned the attack.
“The Hezbollah terror organization continues its attempts to rebuild terrorist infrastructure throughout Lebanon,” the army said on October 22, adding that “the presence of terror infrastructure and the activity of the Hezbollah terror organization in the area constitute a violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon.”
Among a series of airstrikes that day, a platoon commander in the elite Radwan Force was targeted and killed. Two days later, Hezbollah’s south Lebanon logistics chief was eliminated in a drone strike.
An IDF commander warned that “Hezbollah is trying to rebuild itself, and we will prevent that — even if it costs us days of fighting,” as Israel escalates operations in Lebanon to dismantle Hezbollah’s military buildup. Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem replied, “The possibility of an Israeli war on Lebanon exists but is not certain... if a battle is imposed on us, we will fight.” Meanwhile, Egypt’s intelligence chief Hassan Mahmoud Rashad arrived in Lebanon on October 27 to urge officials to restore centralized control and prevent the country from sliding into war.
President Joseph Aoun has signaled openness to indirect talks with Israel, emphasizing Lebanon’s desire to avoid another war. U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagus urged Lebanon to entirely disarm Hezbollah by the end of the year. The Lebanese army has reportedly seized 10,000 rockets and 400 missiles, but this is a fraction of the group’s arsenal, and the government remains hesitant to confront Hezbollah for fear of provoking a return to civil war that plagued the country from 1975 to 1990.
An indication of the danger was the killing of six LAF soldiers by a Hezbollah boobytrap set off when they were clearing an arms depot.
Meanwhile, in July 2025, Hezbollah launched the “Resistance” campaign emphasizing “the importance of the weapons for the resistance against Israel and for the defense of Lebanon.” Secretary General Naim Qassem declared that “the resistance will not give up its weapons as long as the aggression continues, the occupation persists, and we will fight it… if necessary to confront the American-Israeli project, no matter the price.”
Aoun appeared to backtrack on his commitment to disarm the group when he suggested that the focus would be on “containing” the group’s weapons north of the Litani. Other Lebanese hope the group will be satisfied to exist solely as a political party. Barrack made clear, however, “If Beirut fails to act, Hizballah’s military arm will inevitably face major confrontation with Israel at a moment of Israel’s strength and Iran backed Hizballah’s weakest point.”
Barrack reportedly warned, “Either you learn the lesson and agree to enter direct negotiations with Israel under U.S. sponsorship, to establish a timeline and mechanism for dismantling Hezbollah’s arsenal, or Lebanon will be left to its fate, and remain that way for a long time, with no one to help.”
On November 1, Barrack made contradictory remarks. He said expectations that Lebanon would disarm Hezbollah were “unreasonable.” He said the group doesn’t constitute a serious threat to Israel, but then explained that it was bombing the south "because you still have thousands of rockets and missiles that are threatening it.”
“You can’t say the word ‘Israel’ in Lebanon,” he added. “It’s illegal to have a conversation with Israel. What era are we living in?" Israel, he said, is “sitting ready to make border and boundary agreements with all its neighbors.”
Reiterating U.S. influence over Israel, he said, “it owes America a favor” because Trump bombed the nuclear sites in Iran that Barrack claimed helped Israel by “an incredible reshaping of the region.”
Also expressing impatience with the Lebanese government was the chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID), who warned on November 4: “This is a make-or-break moment for Lebanon. The Lebanese Armed Forces enjoy the support of the U.S. and many others as a bulwark against Hezbollah, but if they are unable to disarm those terrorists—or worse, allow them to re-arm—that support will vanish.”
Responding to U.S. and Egyptian pressure on Lebanon’s leaders to open direct negotiations with Israel, Hezbollah sent an open letter to the Lebanese government on November 6, urging Beirut to concentrate on forcing Israel to comply with the ceasefire, rather than “being drawn into political negotiations with the Zionist enemy.”
John Hurley, the U.S. Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, revealed on November 7, 2025, that despite heavy Western sanctions, Iran managed to funnel approximately $1 billion to Hezbollah in 2025 to help it rebuild. Reuters reported that Hezbollah was rebuilt through an intensive, hands-on effort by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), which deployed roughly 100 officers to retrain fighters, oversee rearmament, and take direct supervisory roles in its military wing. The IRGC replaced Hezbollah’s vulnerable hierarchical command structure with a decentralized, cell-based system to improve secrecy and resilience against Israeli intelligence, while embedding advisers to guide operations. It also helped plan coordinated missile attacks launched simultaneously from Iran and Lebanon. This overhaul restored Hezbollah’s ability to fight, though the group remained weaker than at its peak.
Ceasefire Fraying
The IDF said it detected growing cooperation between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, including Hezbollah equipment being transported in Lebanese Army vehicles and the army overlooking the group’s reintroduction of engineering equipment at former Hezbollah sites. While the Lebanese Army once enforced the ceasefire by destroying Hezbollah weapons near the border, the IDF now reports that Hezbollah is accelerating weapons smuggling, and the army is no longer keeping up.
In response, Israel intensified airstrikes across Lebanon to target Hezbollah infrastructure and weapons stockpiles where enforcement has lapsed. The IDF assesses that Hezbollah is actively rebuilding its military capabilities, recruiting operatives, and forming new combat units in violation of the ceasefire.
On November 18, the Israeli Air Force targeted a Hamas training compound in the area of the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp near Sidon, saying it was used to prepare attacks against Israel. Lebanon’s Health Ministry said 13 people were killed and four wounded—making it the deadliest Israeli strike in Lebanon since last year’s ceasefire.
The IDF carried out a targeted killing of Haytham Tabatabai on November 23. He was the former commander of the Radwan Invasion Force, who participated in military operations in Syria and Yemen, and was considered the Hezbollah chief of staff, the organization’s number two position. There was a $5 million reward for this terrorist by the United States. He was hit in Beirut, which was previously considered off limits by the Trump administration and a red line for Hezbollah.
Separately, Israel deployed the Iron Beam laser-defense system in the north for the first time, shortly after the elimination of Tabatabai.
Israel carried out a series of intelligence-led airstrikes near the southern Lebanese villages of Jarmaq and Mahmoudiyeh on November 27, targeting Hezbollah weapons storage sites, launch zones, and other terror infrastructure. The IDF said the strikes dismantled facilities used to stage attacks on Israeli forces and violated existing ceasefire understandings.
Since the ceasefire, Israeli troops have conducted roughly 1,200 operations against Hezbollah, Hamas, and other Palestinian militant groups, recovering weapons depots, missile launch sites, military structures, and observation points. The IDF reported that more than 370 terrorists were eliminated in coordinated air and intelligence operations. Lebanese sources say the strikes aim to prevent Hezbollah from re-establishing positions that could trigger wider conflict.
Lebanon’s army claimed in November that it had largely replaced Hezbollah’s former presence along the southern border since the ceasefire ended the war. On a November 28 tour for journalists, troops showed them areas once used by Hezbollah for rockets, tunnels, and command posts now destroyed or under army control. The military had deployed nearly 10,000 soldiers, shut 11 smuggling crossings, established 200 posts and 29 checkpoints south of the Litani River, and uncovered dozens of tunnels and rocket systems. Over the past year, the army said it has seized about 230,000 weapons and related items while contending with widespread unexploded ordnance.
Reservist soldiers along Israel’s northern border reported in December 2025 that Hezbollah operatives were increasingly approaching IDF positions, often disguised as agricultural workers to gather intelligence and probe readiness. The IDF issued warnings to Lebanese civilians near the border rather than taking direct action, a response some soldiers criticized as insufficient. Commanders also warned that the Radwan force was rebuilding capabilities and posed a growing risk of targeted attacks or cross-border infiltration.
Israel conveyed a message to Lebanon on December 13 via U.S. mediators that “any cooperation between Hezbollah and the Lebanese state is unacceptable.” The warning followed intelligence indicating coordination between Hezbollah and the Lebanese army. Despite this, Israel delayed a planned strike on Hezbollah infrastructure in the southern Lebanese town of Yanouh, issuing civilian warnings and allowing Lebanese forces time to remove weapons from the site.
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said on December 20 that Lebanon was nearing completion of Hezbollah’s disarmament south of the Litani River, as Beirut tried to meet a year-end deadline. The first phase, focused on areas near the Israeli border, was almost finished, and the government planned to move next to confiscating weapons north of the river under a plan devised by the Lebanese army. Lebanon’s army also agreed to document progress for international envoys in an effort to avoid expanded Israeli strikes.
Iran International reported on February 11 that at least six senior Iranian diplomats allegedly used diplomatic passports to transport large amounts of U.S. cash to Hezbollah in recent months, exploiting diplomatic immunity to avoid airport inspection. Those named include Mohammad Ebrahim Taherianfard, a former ambassador to Turkey, who allegedly carried a suitcase of dollars to Beirut in January while traveling alongside Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Other diplomats implicated include Mohammad Reza Shirkhodaei, a former consul general in Pakistan; his brother, Hamidreza Shirkhodaei; Reza Nedaei; Abbas Asgari; and Amir-Hamzeh Shiranirad, a former Iranian embassy employee in Canada. Additionally, Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, allegedly transported hundreds of millions of dollars in cash during an October trip to Beirut.
Meanwhile, in mid-February, Israeli special forces conducted an overnight raid in southern Lebanon, capturing a senior member of the al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya terrorist organization identified as Atwi Atwi. The IDF said it deliberately chose capture over a strike to extract intelligence on the group’s activities in Lebanon and Syria. Separately, the IDF killed two Hezbollah operatives in a different operation
Al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya is a Sunni group connected to the broader Muslim Brotherhood network whose armed wing, the al-Fajr Forces, repeatedly targeted Israel from Lebanon during the 2023-2024 war, often coordinating with Iranian-backed Hezbollah.
War with Iran
The United States and Israel launched a joint campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026. Israel warned Hezbollah not to respond, as did the Lebanese government. Nevertheless, on March 1, Hezbollah entered the war by launching rockets and drones into northern Israel. Israel intercepted the missiles heading toward the Israeli population, and the others fell into open areas. In response, Israel began a campaign targeting dozens of Hezbollah sites across Beirut and southern Lebanon. Hezbollah leaders were also eliminated, including Hussein Makled, the head of Hezbollah’s intelligence.
Israel said on March 2 that the head of Hezbollah’s intelligence arm, Hussein Makled, was killed in an overnight strike in Beirut. A senior commander in Palestinian Islamic Jihad was also eliminated.
The military also struck branches of the Al-Qard al-Hasan association, which the IDF said is used by Hezbollah to store money, manage salaries for its operatives, transfer funds from Iran, and purchase weapons.
In an effort to prevent further escalation, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said Lebanon rejected any military actions launched from its territory “outside the framework of its legitimate institutions and affirmed that the decision of war and peace is exclusively in its hands.”
This “necessitates the immediate prohibition of all Hezbollah’s security and military activities as being outside the law, and obliging it to hand over its weapons to the Lebanese state,” he said.
Salam ordered the military and security agencies to take “immediate measures” to implement the cabinet decision and prevent “any military operation or the launching of missiles or drones from Lebanese territory.”
The orders were unlikely to affect events as Hezbollah remained determined to conduct operations against Israel, and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said Hezbollah must be disarmed, and Israel would not end its offensive until “the threat is removed.”
On March 4, 2026, the IDF estimated that about 300,000 Lebanese civilians evacuated their villages after they were ordered to leave, as Israel apparently was preparing a new ground operation.
Syria closed all border crossings into Lebanon following an alleged notification from Israel that the IDF would target them due to Hezbollah smuggling weapons through them.
On March 4, Iran and Hezbollah carried out their first coordinated attacks on Israel. The IDF said one missile was launched from Iran, while six projectiles were launched from Hezbollah in Lebanon. A second joint attack was launched later. No injuries were reported.
Hezbollah redeployed elite Radwan Force fighters to southern Lebanon to confront Israeli troops, according to Lebanese sources, marking a deeper involvement in the expanding regional conflict. The fighters were sent to areas near the Israeli border to block Israeli tank advances. Their return reversed a withdrawal made under a November 2024 U.S.-brokered ceasefire, which had moved Hezbollah forces north of the Litani River.
Israel warned Iranian regime representatives in Lebanon to leave the country within 24 hours or face being targeted by Israeli forces. Lebanon’s cabinet subsequently announced it would prevent Iranian Revolutionary Guard activity on Lebanese territory, detain any involved personnel, and deport them. Information Minister Paul Morcos also said Iranians will now require visas to enter Lebanon.
IDF strikes intensified in the Beirut strongholds of Hezbollah. Israel also assassinated senior Hamas official Wassim Atallah al-Ali and his wife in a drone strike on their apartment in a Palestinian refugee camp near Tripoli.
The IDF also said on March 4 that troops from three divisions, including infantry, armored, and engineering units, were operating in southern Lebanon.
The IDF ordered all civilians to evacuate southern Lebanon below the Litani River and Beirut's Dahiya district. This order resulted in the displacement of more than half a million people. The Israeli Air Force began destroying multistory apartment blocks in Dahiya while ground forces moved armor and infantry into border areas to prevent Hezbollah raids.
Hezbollah responded with rocket and drone strikes on northern Israel and once on Tel Aviv. A drone also appeared to unsuccessfully target Netanyahu's private home in Caesarea. Hezbollah issued its own evacuation order for Israeli border settlements, including Kiryat Shmona, but observers considered it an empty gesture.
Amid these escalating military moves, the more significant development is political. The Lebanese government, for the first time, declared all Hezbollah military activity illegal and arrested 26 armed Hezbollah operatives at army roadblocks. Following Israel's directive for IRGC officers training and arming Hezbollah to leave Lebanon, Beirut subsequently ordered the Iranians out and announced that all Iranians will henceforth require visas to enter the country, barring Iranian personnel and funds for Hezbollah. Israeli jets also struck a downtown Beirut hotel suite reportedly housing IRGC Quds Force operatives. Iran stated that if Israel bombs the Iranian Embassy in Beirut — which has long served as an IRGC base of operations — it would target Israeli embassies and the Dimona nuclear facility.
Perhaps most remarkably, Lebanon's Christian and Sunni populations have been outspoken in condemning Hezbollah for dragging the country into a destructive war against its interests. Many Lebanese Shi'ites have joined the chorus, including Nabih Berri, the powerful speaker of parliament and leader of the Amal Party, who formally dissociated his movement from Hezbollah — a historic break after years of routinely supporting the Islamist organization.
Hezbollah’s Recovery
Since resuming fighting, Hezbollah has had increasing success in inflicting casualties on Israeli troops. The IDF is concentrating most of its intelligence and airpower on Iran. This inevitably reduces its ability to collect intelligence on Hezbollah activity in southern Lebanon and respond effectively.
During 2024, the IDF invested heavily in pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River, aiming to remove most anti-tank weapons from range. However, Hezbollah’s return of small anti-tank missile teams to previously vacated areas, combined with Israel’s forward deployment intended to protect northern communities, has inadvertently placed Israeli troops closer to Hezbollah’s anti-tank missiles and mortars in the “Badr” area. This increased proximity, caused by Israel’s own tactical move, is now the main driver of rising Israeli casualties.
Hezbollah retains roughly 20% of its original military capabilities, including an estimated 25,000 rockets and missiles — hundreds of them precision-guided and capable of reaching Tel Aviv — along with thousands of anti-tank missiles and anti-ship missiles threatening Israel’s offshore gas platforms. Its elite Radwan force has been rebuilt to approximately 5,000 fighters, deployed in dispersed formations primarily north of the Litani.
Radwan operatives, many in anti-tank teams positioned as close as five kilometers from the Israeli border, are gathering intelligence on Israeli troop movements. They use ground observation posts, drones, and unmanned aircraft. They have reportedly identified logistical convoys and troop concentrations, exploiting the physical movement and electronic signals generated by reinforced Israeli units inside Lebanon. Radwan forces are launching anti-tank missiles and short-range rockets from the Badr staging areas. These areas were originally intended for Hezbollah’s planned assault into the Galilee. Radwan is also inserting small teams closer to Israeli positions in attempts to inflict casualties or capture soldiers.
The number of Radwan units in the Badr area grew significantly in early 2026, with some crossing south of the Litani. The Lebanese army sometimes intervenes when movements are carried out openly. However, it has struggled to stop infiltrations along hidden routes. Hezbollah also retains Iranian-made Almas anti-tank missiles. These are essentially copies of the Israeli Spike and are capable of precision strikes from concealed positions day and night.
Most notably, Israeli operations have led to what appears to be a complete disconnect between Hezbollah and Iran by disrupting established channels of coordination. Consequently, the organization is now acting independently rather than in coordination with its patron, and it appears increasingly prepared for a prolonged guerrilla campaign on both sides of the Litani River.
Israel warned Iranian regime representatives in Lebanon to leave the country within 24 hours or face being targeted by Israeli forces. Lebanon’s cabinet subsequently announced it would prevent Iranian Revolutionary Guard activity on Lebanese territory, detain any involved personnel, and deport them. Information Minister Paul Morcos also said Iranians will now require visas to enter Lebanon.
The IDF ordered all civilians to evacuate southern Lebanon below the Litani River and Beirut’s Dahiya district. This order displaced more than half a million people. The Israeli Air Force began destroying multistory apartment blocks in Dahiya while ground forces moved armor and infantry into border areas to prevent Hezbollah raids.
Hezbollah responded with rocket and drone strikes on northern Israel and once on Tel Aviv. A drone also appeared to unsuccessfully target Netanyahu’s private home in Caesarea. Hezbollah issued its own evacuation order for Israeli border settlements, including Kiryat Shmona, but observers considered it an empty gesture.
Amid these escalating military moves, the more significant development is political. The Lebanese government, for the first time, declared all Hezbollah military activity illegal and arrested 26 armed Hezbollah operatives at army roadblocks. Following Israel’s directive for IRGC officers training and arming Hezbollah to leave Lebanon, Beirut subsequently ordered the Iranians out and announced that all Iranians will henceforth require visas to enter the country, barring Iranian personnel and funds for Hezbollah. Israeli jets also struck a downtown Beirut hotel suite reportedly housing IRGC Quds Force operatives. Iran stated that if Israel bombs the Iranian Embassy in Beirut — which has long served as an IRGC base of operations — it would target Israeli embassies and the Dimona nuclear facility.
Perhaps most remarkably, Lebanon’s Christian and Sunni populations have been outspoken in condemning Hezbollah for dragging the country into a destructive war against its interests. Many Lebanese Shi’ites have joined the chorus, including Nabih Berri, the powerful speaker of parliament and leader of the Amal Party, who formally dissociated his movement from Hezbollah — a historic break after years of routinely supporting the Islamist organization.
Hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets on central Israel, with one missile striking the city center of Ramleh and injuring 16 people. Senior Israeli officials told Israeli media on March 9 that they expect Hezbollah to increase the volume of its attacks in “the coming days” as part of an effort to “draw Israeli attention away” from Iran. The day before, two IDF soldiers were killed in an ambush.
Following Israel’s threat that Iranian regime officials in Lebanon who did not immediately leave would become targets, the IDF struck a room in the Ramada Hotel in Beirut’s upscale Raouché district, killing five senior IRGC members involved in financing and directing terrorist operations among Iran’s Lebanese and Palestinian proxies. Ten other people were injured. At least 150 Iranian nationals have left Lebanon since the threat was issued.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun publicly lashed out at Hezbollah, telling European officials: “Whoever launched those missiles wanted to bring about the collapse of the Lebanese state, plunging it into aggression and chaos… all for the sake of the Iranian regime’s calculation.” He proposed a four-point plan that would include “establishing a full truce” with Israel and direct negotiations.
A massive, coordinated barrage of rocket and missile fire on northern Israel was carried out by Hezbollah and Iran on March 11, marking a significant escalation in the Lebanese front of the war, which opened on March 2 with a much smaller Hezbollah attack on northern Israel. Some 200 Hezbollah rockets were fired on northern Israel, with a smaller barrage from Iran also hitting Israel’s north at the exact same time. Most of the projectiles were intercepted or landed in open fields. The IDF launched a massive airstrike on Lebanon, focusing on Hezbollah strongholds such as the Dahiya quarter of Beirut. The IDF reported destroying ten different Hezbollah command posts and dozens of rocket launchers.
On March 11, Trump said, “We’ve got to get rid of Hezbollah. It’s been a disaster for many years.”
Israel Hayom reported on March 12 that President Trump approved Israel's limited ground incursion into Lebanon and agreed that the operation could be expanded significantly if necessary. Publicly, he said, “We love Lebanon, we love the Lebanese people,” adding, “We have to get rid of Hezbollah. It has brought disaster for many years.”
The same day, Netanyahu warned that Lebanon’s government had to “take your fate into your own hands” and disarm Hezbollah, or else Israel would.
“Hezbollah is feeling our force, and it will feel it even more so. It will pay a very heavy price for its aggression,” he said.
Before 2024, Hezbollah had 150,000 rockets and missiles, and the potential capacity to “bring down the skyscrapers of Tel Aviv and cause devastation in central Israel and beyond, with 15,000-20,000 fatalities,” but, Netanyahu added, “That did not happen because we hit them with a massive blow.”
On March 13, Lebanese media reported that the Israeli Air Force dropped leaflets in Beirut calling on civilians to act against Hezbollah. “If you want to be part of real change and contribute to the prosperity and defense of your country, we are here to listen,” read the leaflets bearing the logo from the Military Intelligence Directorate’s Unit 504, which specializes in human intelligence.
The same day, Israeli and U.S. officials confirmed that Israel was planning to push Hezbollah’s forces north and to send ground troops to temporarily occupy southern Lebanon. Israel said it did not plan a permanent presence as it had after the second Lebanon war, but it was intent on dismantling Hezbollah’s military positions and weapons depots.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah began attempting periodic large rocket barrages to sow panic in Israel, but Israeli strikes on mobile launchers and interception systems have limited their impact. The group has shifted tactics—dispersing rockets across civilian areas and avoiding direct combat—while many launches fall short of Israel. Despite increased fire, the damage remains constrained. Meanwhile, growing displacement and destruction in Lebanon have sparked rising anger among Hezbollah’s Shiite base, with many blaming the group for dragging them into another costly conflict and questioning its leadership.
Northern Israel Under Fire Again
Hezbollah is attempting periodic large rocket barrages to create panic in Israel, but Israeli strikes on key mobile launchers and interception systems have limited their impact. Although rocket fire has increased, many launches fall short of Israel, and planned attacks are often disrupted. Hezbollah has shifted tactics by dispersing weapons across civilian areas and avoiding direct combat, while Israeli forces advance cautiously and seek to establish a stronger buffer zone along the border.
Hezbollah’s renewed rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel have battered border communities just as they were beginning to recover from earlier evacuations. Frequent sirens and strikes have disrupted efforts to bring residents back, forcing school and business closures and increasing economic and social strain. Welfare needs are rising sharply while local governments, already reliant on philanthropy, face funding shortages and donor fatigue. Despite the hardship and risk of renewed displacement, community leaders are urging residents to stay, determined not to abandon their homes again.
Inside Lebanon, growing numbers of Lebanese Shiites—Hezbollah’s traditional support base—are turning against the group, blaming it for dragging them into another destructive war with Israel. The conflict has displaced over a million people and raised fears that southern Lebanon could face devastation similar to Gaza. Many supporters now question Hezbollah’s leadership, arguing that its actions have brought high costs with little benefit, eroding its political legitimacy.
On March 24, the first Israeli civilian casualty since the resumption of fighting was a 27-year-old woman who died in the Upper Galilee during a barrage of about 30 rockets. Another civilian who was killed two days earlier was accidentally hit when an IDF artillery battery mistakenly fired on his kibbutz.
The same day, Defense Minister Katz said Israel would control a “security zone” in southern Lebanon, up to the Litani River, until the threat of Hezbollah is removed. “The IDF will continue to operate in Lebanon with full force against Hezbollah. Hundreds of thousands of residents of southern Lebanon who evacuated northward will not return south of the Litani River until security for the residents of the north is ensured,” he said.
Katz said that all bridges over the Litani River that had been used by Hezbollah to move terrorists and weapons into southern Lebanon had been blown up, and that the IDF would control the remaining bridges.
On March 26, Hezbollah fired over 600 rockets, mortars, and drones in 24 hours, roughly double its prior high of around 300 aerial threats during the 2023-2024 fighting.
Netanyahu announced on March 29 that Israel would expand its military operations in southern Lebanon to create a larger “security zone” along its northern border. The goal was to reduce ongoing attacks from Hezbollah, including missiles and drones, and to push threats like anti-tank fire farther away from Israeli communities. He contrasted the current approach with earlier fighting, saying Israel was taking the offensive and acting proactively.
Chief of Staff Zamir outlined a three-tier defensive strategy in southern Lebanon as part of the new ground offensive. The first tier focuses on border villages, where Israeli forces have worked to eliminate the risk of Hezbollah infiltration. The second and third tiers consist of deeper villages that could be used to launch anti-tank missiles into northern Israel. The final line extends to the Litani River—about 20–30 kilometers (12–18 miles) from the border—an area from which Hezbollah has been firing rockets at Israel.
Meanwhile, Regional Council chiefs in the north criticized the government over what they call an inadequate effort to protect local citizens.
In Beirut, Iran’s ambassador refused to leave Lebanon despite being declared persona non grata by the Foreign Ministry and ordered to leave the country by March 29.
On March 30, the military said it carried out a strike on a Hezbollah cell in southern Lebanon that was operating under the cover of an ambulance, with members posing as paramedics while transporting weapons for attacks against Israel and IDF forces.
According to the IDF, this reflects a broader pattern in which Hezbollah has used ambulances to conceal and move weapons, conducted command operations from medical facilities, and transported fighters through combat zones under the protection typically granted to medical personnel. The military added that such use of civilian cover extends beyond medical settings to include schools, religious sites, and private homes.
A few days earlier, in another example of Hezbollah using civilian facilities as cover, the IDF found hundreds of weapons, including anti-tank rockets, mortar shells, grenades, launchers, small arms, mines, and explosives in a school in al-Khiam.
The military also struck key assets and financial storage sites of the “Al-Qard al-Hasan” Association on April 3. According to the IDF, the organization operated as a parallel banking system in Lebanon, exploited civilian funds, and received money from Iran to finance Hezbollah. The IDF claimed these attacks caused significant damage to Hezbollah’s finances.
Five central bridges used to transfer weapons and enemy forces from north to south Lebanon were also struck.
The difficulty of Israel’s task was underscored by a senior Israeli military official, who said the IDF’s main objective in Lebanon was to significantly weaken Hezbollah and reduce the threat to northern Israel. He acknowledged that fully disarming the group was unrealistic and not an immediate objective, noting that total disarmament would require conquering all of Lebanon, which was not planned.
Given these constraints, the military was instead pursuing more limited goals, including establishing a security zone in southern Lebanon and degrading Hezbollah’s capabilities, even as rocket fire was expected to continue.
The IDF later clarified that disarming Hezbollah was a long-term objective, but the current operation focused on weakening the group.
Defense Minister Katz said the IDF would raze all buildings in the first line of villages and that civilians would not be allowed to return south of the Litani River until the Hezbollah threat was removed. According to the military, the plan called for clearing all villages within a few kilometers of the border of Hezbollah infrastructure, except for several Christian communities. The IDF said most of these villages were already cleared during the ground offensive in late 2024.
Ynet reported the furious reaction of residents in the north. Moran Dadush, a resident of the western Galilee community of Goren, said. “We will not let anyone play with our lives. When the truth comes out, you understand how much we were misled. Now it’s official: dismantling Hezbollah is no longer a goal,” he said. “Instead of talking about victory, they talk about a ‘village line.’ Instead of defeating the threat, they plan to manage it. Instead of real security, they sell us a sense of security.” He added, “Then comes the sentence that explains everything: ‘To dismantle Hezbollah, you need to occupy all of Lebanon.’ That means they knew from the start it wouldn’t happen, yet they kept selling the public a goal they never intended to achieve.”
The IDF said that in the first month of fighting, approximately 1,000 terrorists have been eliminated and more than 3,500 targets have been struck across Lebanon. Nonetheless, Ynet said Hezbollah was still thought to possess between 8,000 and 10,000 rockets and had fired about 5,000 rockets in the previous month. The IDF said it had eliminated Hezbollah’s domestic rocket production capability and significantly curtailed smuggling routes via Syria, as well as by sea and air. Nevertheless, despite the destruction of around 100 launchers, Hezbollah was believed to still have between 300 and 400 remaining and was firing about 50 rockets per day, with roughly three-quarters aimed at IDF forces across the border and about 70% of attacks on northern Israel originating from north of the Litani River. The IDF estimated that Hezbollah could fire 200 rockets and drones per day for an additional five months.
The IDF said on April 7 that it had completed the deployment of ground forces along a strategic ridge in southern Lebanon, designed to prevent Hezbollah from launching anti-tank guided missiles at Israeli communities. The so-called anti-tank line lies several miles inside Lebanese territory, beyond the range from which Hezbollah could effectively target northern Israel, with such missiles estimated to reach roughly 6 miles (10 kilometers).
Trump Pressures Israel to Accept Ceasefire
On April 14, Israel and Lebanon held their first direct talks since 1993, a symbolic but significant meeting brokered by Washington that Secretary of State Rubio framed not as a ceasefire negotiation but as “a historic opportunity” to bring “a permanent end to 20 or 30 years of Hezbollah’s influence.” Rubio was careful to temper expectations, saying “this is a process, not an event,” while expressing hope that the talks could “outline the framework upon which a permanent and lasting peace can be developed” for both Israelis and Lebanese alike.
A joint statement issued after the meeting said the three sides had held “productive discussions” toward “launching direct negotiations between Israel and Lebanon.” The U.S. expressed support for the Lebanese government’s stated goal of restoring its monopoly on force and ending “Iran’s overbearing influence,” and noted that successful negotiations could “unlock significant reconstruction assistance and economic recovery for Lebanon.” Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter said the Lebanese government had made clear “they will no longer be occupied by Hezbollah,” and offered a striking vision of what normalization could look like: a clearly delineated border where the only reason either side would need to cross would be “in business suits to conduct business, or in bathing suits to go on vacation.”
The Israeli approach, as one official described it, was to “negotiate with Lebanon as if there is no Hezbollah, and to fight Hezbollah as if there are no peace negotiations.” That dual-track strategy was visible in real time: even as the talks took place, approximately 40 rockets were fired into northern Israel, and Hezbollah drones continued striking communities, including Nahariya. A security official acknowledged that more than 50 percent of Hezbollah’s attacks were still being launched from south of the Litani River, underscoring how far the military campaign remained from achieving full demilitarization.
Ambassador Leiter set out Israel’s three interrelated goals: “the complete dismantlement of Hezbollah, the freeing of Lebanon from Iran’s terror proxy, and the achievement of a real, lasting and mutually-celebrated peace.” He declared that “Naim Qassem and Hezbollah belong to the past. We are here for the future.” The U.S. was understood to be aiming at a “shelf agreement” — a framework ready for implementation once Hezbollah was disarmed — though most analysts cautioned that real progress with Lebanon would only be possible once Washington had resolved its broader conflict with Tehran. France, despite its historic role in Lebanese affairs, was notably absent from the process, reflecting how firmly the talks were being driven by Washington.
Two days later, for the second time, Trump compelled Israel to halt its military operation in Lebanon before achieving its objectives, announcing on April 16 that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. Although he had initially aligned with Israel in its dispute with Iran—maintaining that the ceasefire did not obligate Israel to end its campaign against Hezbollah—he appeared to have reversed course, likely due to the delicate nature of negotiations with Iran and his interest in bringing that conflict to a close.
“When Israel’s greatest friend, President Trump, is acting alongside us in close coordination, Israel cooperates with him,” Netanyahu said, according to Ynet.
“I just had excellent conversations with the Highly Respected President Joseph Aoun, of Lebanon, and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “These two Leaders have agreed that in order to achieve PEACE between their Countries, they will formally begin a 10 Day CEASEFIRE at 5 P.M. EST.”
He later said that he was aranging for a call between Aoun and Netanyahu for “the first meaningful talks between Israel and Lebanon since 1983, a very long time ago.”
He added: “Both sides want to see PEACE, and I believe that will happen, quickly!”
The announcement came just a day after Netanyahu told the country that he had instructed the army to deepen its fighting against Hezbollah.
“We have an opportunity to reach a historic peace agreement with Lebanon,” Netanyahu told Israelis in a video statement announcing the truce.
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam welcomed the ceasefire; however, Aoun said he would not speak with Netanyahu.
Lebanon’s diplomatic engagement with Israel remained limited and conditional, with officials emphasizing that any direct political meeting between Netanyahu and Aoun depended on first stabilizing a ceasefire, an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and the deployment of the Lebanese army. While Beirut rejected a trilateral meeting with the United States and Israel, indirect engagement continued through U.S.-mediated contacts, including preparatory talks in Washington between the Lebanese and Israeli Ambassadors.
To further emphasize his position and control over Israeli behavior, Trump posted on April 17, “Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!”
The Jerusalem Post reported that Netanyahu was “personally stunned and alarmed” by the post. The Israelis insisted the ceasefire agreement preserved their right to self-defense, but Trump told Axios, “Israel has to stop. They can’t continue to blow buildings up. I am not gonna allow it.”
At the time of the ceasefire, the Times of Israel reported, five IDF divisions—tens of thousands of troops—were deployed in a newly established buffer zone in southern Lebanon, an area similar to that which Israel controlled from 1985 to 2000. According to Israeli defense officials, the objective is to prevent a Hezbollah ground incursion and reduce the risk of “direct fire,” particularly anti-tank missiles aimed at border communities.
The military has avoided referring to the area as a “security zone,” instead using the term “forward defense area.” This language is intended to distinguish the mission from the earlier deployment in Lebanon, where roughly 675 Israeli soldiers were killed.
Officials identify several differences from the earlier deployment. First, most Lebanese civilians have evacuated, leaving only a few Christian communities with whom Israel maintains coordination. As a result, Hezbollah’s ability to operate under civilian cover is reduced, and its fighters are easier to identify.
Second, the military has systematically targeted Hezbollah infrastructure, limiting its ability to stage attacks from border villages.
Third, unlike the earlier period, the IDF plans to rely on fewer fixed outposts and greater mobility. Instead of maintaining numerous static positions—once prime targets for Hezbollah—the army intends to operate more flexibly, combining surveillance, firepower, and a limited ground presence in strategically critical areas.
While Hezbollah has been pushed further north, it maintains the capacity to launch rockets at Israeli forces in the security zone and northern communities.
On April 18, while the ceasefire was in effect, a UNIFIL force came under attack from Hezbollah, leaving one French peacekeeper dead and three others wounded.
A controversy erupted in Israel and abroad after a photograph was circulated showing an IDF soldier damaging a statue of Jesus in the Christian village of Debel in southern Lebanon. Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar condemned the act as “grave and disgraceful,” stressing that it was “completely contrary to our values,” and issued a formal apology to Christians.
A formal IDF investigation later determined that one soldier damaged the statue while another filmed the incident, and that additional soldiers failed to intervene. The conduct was found to be a “complete deviation” from IDF orders and values. The responsible soldiers were removed from combat duty and sentenced to 30 days of military detention, while others were subject to disciplinary review. Senior commanders described the incident as a “moral failure” and reinforced procedures for respecting religious symbols. The IDF also coordinated with the local Christian community to replace the damaged statue.
Hezbollah violated the ceasefire on April 21 by firing several rockets at Israeli troops stationed in the south of the country, as well as launching a drone at Israel. Israel responded to the source of attacks but did not return to all-out war. The IDF insisted it would continue to clear the area under its control of Hezbollah infrastructure, operatives, and any other threats.
The following day, the U.S. Embassy in Beirut urged American citizens to leave Lebanon, likely anticipating that the ceasefire would end.
A Second Peace Summit
President Trump hosted Israel's ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter, and Lebanese ambassador to the U.S., Nada Moawad, in the Oval Office for a second round of U.S.-facilitated talks on April 23. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee and U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa also attended the meeting.
Afterward, Trump announced that the 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire would be extended by three weeks following White House talks involving senior U.S., Israeli, and Lebanese officials.
The extension, requested by Lebanon, came as the U.S. sought to help stabilize the situation and support Lebanon in addressing Hezbollah. Trump expressed optimism about reaching a broader resolution and said he planned to host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun for further discussions.
He framed the move as part of a wider effort to de-escalate regional tensions alongside ongoing negotiations related to Iran.
He also toned down his earlier position that Israel was “prohibited” from bombing Lebanon. “Israel is going to have to defend itself if they are shot at,” he said, “but they’re going to do it carefully, and they’ll be surgical.”
Meanwhile, Lebanese lawmaker Mohammed Raad, head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, calls for Lebanon to “withdraw” from direct talks with Israel.
Hezbollah appeared to be pursuing a calculated strategy of limited provocations in northern Israel and southern Lebanon — targeting uninhabited areas and Israeli forces rather than population centers — in an apparent effort to signal its continued capacity to threaten Israeli security without crossing the threshold that would trigger a full-scale Israeli military response. The approach accepted the risk of renewed war while trying to manage it.
That calculus collapsed over the weekend of April 25, when Hezbollah fired barrages of missiles and drones at Israeli cities in a blatant ceasefire violation, forcing thousands of civilians into bomb shelters. Israel responded with a wave of strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon's Beqaa Valley. During operations, IDF forces also uncovered a large Hezbollah weapons cache concealed in a child's bedroom, containing machine guns, grenades, RPGs, munitions, and combat equipment. Separately, Israeli forces noted that Hezbollah had begun operating attack drones via fiber optic cables — a technology adapted from Russia's war in Ukraine that makes the drones significantly harder to intercept.
The Lebanese government, meanwhile, had taken no meaningful steps to fulfill its ceasefire obligations to disarm Hezbollah. An Israeli source was blunt: "There have been no arrests, no attempts to prevent attacks on our soldiers, and no effort to stop the rocket fire." Prime Minister Netanyahu responded by granting IDF generals full freedom of action to neutralize immediate and emerging threats from Hezbollah, including north of the Litani River.
Since the ceasefire took effect, Israeli forces dismantled approximately 1,000 Hezbollah infrastructure sites — including booby-trapped structures — and recovered hundreds of weapons ranging from Kalashnikov rifles and anti-tank missiles to mortar shells, mines, and RPG rockets.
Joseph Aoun said on April 27 that Lebanon’s decision to pursue direct talks with Israel under U.S. mediation was aimed at ending the long-standing state of war and reaching an armistice-style agreement. Speaking at the presidential palace after Naim Qassem rejected negotiations and reaffirmed that Hezbollah would not disarm, Aoun forcefully defended his approach and rebuked critics.
“My goal is to reach an end to the state of war with Israel, along the lines of an armistice agreement,” Aoun said. “Was the armistice agreement an act of humiliation? I will not accept reaching a humiliating agreement.” He rejected accusations of betrayal, adding, “What we are doing is not betrayal. Betrayal is committed by those who drag their country into war to serve external interests.” In a pointed swipe at Hezbollah, he continued, “Some criticize us for deciding to go to negotiations on the grounds that there is no national consensus. I ask: when you chose war, did you have national consensus first?”
The ceasefire appeared to formally collapse on April 28, when Israel issued evacuation warnings to 16 villages and towns south of the Litani River and launched a series of airstrikes across southern Lebanon. The IDF also completed an operation to locate and dismantle underground tunnels in the Qantara area of southern Lebanon. The soldiers located two underground tunnels, totaling more than one mile in length, situated about six miles from Israel’s northern communities. They were constructed at depths of dozens of feet underground as part of Hezbollah’s plan to “conquer the Galilee.” Inside the tunnels, soldiers located weapons, living quarters, water tanks, and equipment for prolonged stays. More than 30 rooms used for lodging and operational planning were found, along with approximately 30 operational shafts, including shafts connected to positions with launchers directed toward Israeli territory.
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said on April 28 that all political discussions in Lebanon are on hold until a genuine ceasefire is reached.
Channel 14’s Senior Arab Affairs Analyst, Omri Haim, said: “Nabih Berri is working to paralyze [Lebanon’s] operations in an attempt to subordinate his own country to the interests of the Iranian terrorist organization.”
“Hezbollah's strategy is clear: provoke, attack, and then blame Israel in order to kill the negotiations and make the Lebanese government look bad. We cannot feasibly expect Israel to just take the hits. This is not the Biden administration,” a U.S. official told Axios.
The paradox, Firas Maksad, managing director for Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group, explained to Axios is that, “It’s difficult to say ‘no’ to President Trump and risk his wrath, but it is also increasingly difficult to sustain direct negotiations with Israel, let alone meeting Netanyahu at the White House, when the destruction of villages and loss of Lebanese lives continues.”
On May 6, Israel carried out its first airstrike in Beirut since the ceasefire, killing Ahmed Ghaleb Balout, a commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, whom the military said was involved in planning an invasion of the Galilee. The strike targeted Hezbollah’s stronghold in southern Beirut and highlighted the erosion of the April 16 ceasefire. While Israel and Hezbollah continued exchanging strikes at a lower intensity, the Beirut operation signaled a renewed willingness by Israel to escalate against high-value targets despite the nominal truce.
Later that month, the U.S. Treasury imposed new OFAC sanctions on Hezballah-linked Lebanese figures, saying the move targets Hezballah-aligned officials obstructing peace and disarmament. The designations include Ibrahim al-Moussawi, Ahmad Asaad Baalbaki, Hassan Fadlallah, Abdel-Mottaleb Fneish, Samir Adnan Hamadi, Hussein al-Hajj Hassan, Khattar Nasser Eldin, and Ali Ahmad Safawi, with OFAC identifying them as linked to Hizballah and subject to U.S. counterterrorism sanctions and the risk of secondary sanctions.
The U.S. State Department announced on May 15 that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to extend the temporary ceasefire for an additional 45 days. However, Hezbollah defended against an IDF assault into Haddatha, Bint Jbeil District, on May 19–20 — the first prolonged engagement between the IDF and Hezbollah since the ceasefire began. Hezbollah reiterated it would continue engaging the IDF in southern Lebanon until Israeli forces completely withdrew. Iran’s proposed MOU demanded an end to the war on “all fronts,” including Lebanon, a position the United States rejected, given its support for continued Israeli operations.
Hezbollah steadily intensified attacks since the ceasefire in mid-April, firing more than 1,000 drones and around 700 rockets, killing 11 Israelis and injuring dozens, while shifting from attacks mainly on IDF troops in southern Lebanon to strikes on Israeli outposts and northern communities. Hezbollah pursued a strategy of calibrated attrition, using drones, including fiber-optic and thermal-camera systems, to exploit tactical advantages, wear down the IDF, disrupt civilian life in the north, and challenge Israel’s ability to provide security without expanding the war. Israel responded with sustained strikes on Hezbollah command centers, weapons depots, operatives, and drone infrastructure.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would intensify its strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, arguing that Israel is “at war with Hezbollah” and will not ease military pressure despite the April 16 truce. The escalation came as U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon talks continue and as Washington warns that Hezbollah is trying to derail those efforts, while the broader fighting could also complicate U.S.-Iran negotiations.
In May, the United States imposed sanctions on a group of Hezbollah-linked Lebanese politicians, security officials, and allies accused of helping preserve Hezbollah’s influence within the Lebanese state and obstructing efforts to disarm the Iranian-backed organization. The move marked the first time Washington sanctioned serving Lebanese state security officials, including members of the General Security agency and military intelligence, alleging they provided Hezbollah with intelligence and other illicit support during the conflict.
Those targeted included senior Hezbollah parliamentarians and former minister Mohammed Fneish, all of whom opposed disarmament initiatives, as well as Iran’s ambassador-designate to Lebanon, Mohammad Reza Sheibani. The sanctions underscored growing U.S. pressure on Beirut to confront Hezbollah’s entrenched political and security influence and dismantle the group’s military infrastructure.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem delivered a defiant and highly confrontational speech on May 24, warning the Lebanese government against efforts to dismantle Hezbollah’s military infrastructure or pursue direct negotiations with Israel. Rejecting demands to disarm, Qassem framed Hezbollah’s weapons as essential to Lebanon’s survival and declared that surrendering them would amount to “annihilation.” He threatened that the public could “topple the government” if authorities aligned with what he called an Israeli-American agenda and vowed that Hezbollah would confront “with all its strength” anyone seeking to challenge it.
The speech reflected both Hezbollah’s growing domestic pressure and its determination to remain on a permanent war footing with Israel. Qassem portrayed the conflict as existential, insisted Hezbollah would never surrender “even if the whole world unites against it,” and boasted that the group’s drones continued to harass Israeli forces. He also tied Lebanon’s future to broader U.S.-Iran negotiations and suggested Hezbollah could escalate internally if political developments threatened its position. Analysts compared his rhetoric to the period preceding Hezbollah’s 2008 armed takeover of parts of Beirut, warning that the group may again resort to force rather than accept efforts to curb its power.
The IDF said it carried out a strike in a suburb of Beirut on May 28, the first time since May 6 that Israel bombed the Lebanese capital. The target was reportedly Ali al-Husni, the head of the missile force in the Imam Hossein Division, an Iranian militia that operates alongside Hezbollah. Earlier in the week, the U.S. approved Israeli plans to expand operations against Hezbollah, but warned Jerusalem against striking Beirut for fear that doing so could harm ongoing negotiations with Iran.
With the casualty toll growing and Hezbollah violating the ceasefire daily with rocket and drone attacks on soldiers and northern Israel, Netanyahu got U.S. approval to attack the Hezbollah stronghold in the southern outskirts of Beirut, known as Dahiya,
Trump Stops Israeli Advance
According to Axios, Trump spoke to Netanyahu on June 1 and said, “You’re fucking crazy. You’d be in prison if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this.” Then he posted, “I had a very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, and there will be no Troops going to Beirut, and any Troops that are on their way, have already been turned back. Likewise, through highly placed Representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop — That Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel.”
Iran appeared determined to save Hezbollah and found Trump willing to sacrifice Israeli security to keep negotiations to end the U.S. war with Iran alive.
The Wall Street Journal editorial board noted, “Anytime it wants, Iran could tell Hezbollah to stop shooting and end the war, which Israel has no desire to wage. Instead, it encouraged Hezbollah’s fire, so it could cut off U.S. talks when Israel inevitably responded in force. The regime has two interests here: Protecting its terror proxy while it attacks Israel and resisting the U.S. changes to the draft memorandum of understanding.”
At a United Nations emergency Security Council meeting the same day, representatives of every country except the United States called for Israel to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon and refrain from threatened escalatory attacks on the country.
Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors held a fourth round of talks in Washington on June 2-3, 2026, aimed at reinforcing the fragile ceasefire. According to a senior Lebanese official, the talks are exploring phased measures to strengthen the ceasefire, including the possible creation of “pilot zones” where hostilities would cease, Israeli forces would withdraw, and Lebanese troops would deploy, with the goal of gradually expanding the arrangement into a broader ceasefire across Lebanon.
A joint statement emphasized that Israel and Lebanon should determine their future relationship independently and rejected outside interference by state or non-state actors—a reference to Iran, which has sought to link a Lebanon ceasefire to broader negotiations over the Iran conflict.
Despite Trump announcing a new truce, fighting continued. Israeli strikes persisted in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah continued launching rockets and drones into Israel. The announcement appeared to have mainly prevented planned Israeli operations in Beirut.
Hezbollah and Iranian leaders continued to reject ceasefire proposals that fell short of their demand for a complete Israeli withdrawal and acceptance of their terms. This position appeared designed not only to shape the outcome in Lebanon but also to delay negotiations on broader disputes between Iran and the United States.
Iran Retaliates
Lebanese President Aoun complained about Iranian intervention in his country. “It’s not your country, it’s our country,” he said. “It’s our obligation. It’s not your job to interfere in our country… Our people [are] being killed, our people, our house is being destroyed.” He added, “They are using Lebanon as a bargaining chip in their negotiation with the United States. It’s unacceptable.”
He spoke after Hezbollah had rejected the ceasefire agreed to by Lebanese and Israeli officials in Washington on June 3.
Ignoring warnings that attacks on northern Israel would trigger broader retaliation, Hezbollah fired a barrage of rockets toward northern Israel on June 7. Israel responded by conducting an airstrike against a Hezbollah headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Iran then launched two waves of ballistic missiles targeting the Ramat David Air Base in northern Israel in what it said was retaliation for Israel’s strike.
Trump told Netanyahu not to retaliate. “Each of them had their fun. Israel had its strike, and Iran had its strike. We don't need another one," Trump told Axios.
Netanyahu did not agree that Israel could accept such a brazen attack on its territory and ordered the Israeli Air Force to strike several targets at the petrochemical complex in Mahshahr on June 8. According to the IDF, the targeted facilities were used by the Iranian regime to manufacture and export raw materials for weapons production. The military says the infrastructure produced unique materials used as critical components in Iran’s ballistic missile program. Airstrikes also hit nine strategic defense systems in Western and central Iran that had been recently deployed to restore detection and defense capabilities degraded during Operation Roaring Lion.
Iran then fired another volley of missiles that were intercepted.
IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Defrin said, “The [Iranian] regime is trying to create a new equation, when it directly fires at our territory in response to IDF attacks on the Dahiya Quarter. We will not allow this. We attacked the Dahiya Quarter following Hezbollah’s endless fire on communities in northern Israel. The IDF will continue to operate throughout Lebanon and will intensify its strikes on the Hezbollah terrorist organization. We will not allow fire to continue at the citizens of the State of Israel.”
