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Fact Sheet#23: Iran(Updated June 17, 2009)Iran is one of America’s foremost self-proclaimed enemies and one of the most serious threats to stability in the Middle East. Iran has also been one of the most vociferous opponents of Arab-Israeli peace efforts and a leader of the rejectionist camp that advocates the destruction of Israel. The Iranian government’s extreme interpretation of Islamic law, and its anti-Western philosophy inspire many Islamic extremists. Iran is also one of the principal state sponsors of terror. In the past, the nation has delivered weapons to Hizballah members in Lebanon and terrorists living in the Palestinian Authority. Iran also provides a safe haven for terrorists. Iran has been implicated in numerous anti-West and anti-Israel terrorist attacks. They have been the organizing force behind many attacks against U.S. and Israeli Embassy buildings throughout the world. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on June 9, 2009, “Our concern about the nature of the Iran problem has continued to rise as they continue to make further progress in enriching uranium...and also as they have enjoyed some success in their missile field” (AFP, June 9, 2009). Iran is not just viewed as a threat to the United States and Israel. European leaders also see Iran as a threat to their interests. France, Germany and Great Britain have all made statements condemning Iran's production of enriched uranium and have vowed to impede upon the country's nuclear capabilities. The Iranian nuclear program is also vigorously opposed by Iran’s Arab neighbors, who fear the country seeks to dominate them. In October 2007, a senior Iranian general said that suicide bombers were ready to strike at targets throughout the Gulf. The threat was aimed at Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In December 2008, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak warned “the Persians are trying to devour the Arab states” (Jerusalem Post, December 11, 2008). A few months later, Mubarak said, “A nuclear armed Iran with hegemonic ambitions is the greatest threat to Arab nations today” (Wall Street Journal, March 23, 2009). Conequently, several Arab countries have announced their interest in nuclear power. Jordan, Egypt, Yemen, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, the UAE and Saudi Arabia wish to develop their own programs. It is likely that their interest has come from the fear of a nuclear Iran. Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on April 2, 2009, “I think the Iranians are on a path to building nuclear weapons...we don't have a lot of time” (Wall Street Journal, April 6, 2009). A February 2009 IAEA report states that inspectors uncovered 209 kilograms of low-enriched uranium that the Iranians had failed to declare, which brings the total amount that Teheran has so far enriched to over a ton, enough, with additional purification, to produce a nuclear weapon. “It's worse than we thought. It's alarming that the actual production was underreported by a third,” said Gary Milhollin, the director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control (Jerusalem Post, February 20, 2009). According to a report submitted to French President Nicolas Sarkozy in the last days of 2008, Iran is a “short distance” from securing all it needs to make a nuclear warhead. The bipartisan team that prepared the report used facts officially acknowledged by the Islamic Republic and concluded that Iran will be a member of the nuclear club by the end of 2011 at the latest and that 2009 may be the last chance to prevent Iran from developing a bomb (Asharq Al-Awsat, January 7, 2009). A January 2009 study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies also forecast Iran will most likely have produced enough enriched uranium to make an atomic bomb by the end of 2009 (Jerusalem Post, January 27, 2009). The CIA also believes Iran is progressing toward a bomb. Outgoing CIA director Michael Hayden said, “I’m amazed Iran is willing to run the costs they are running if they are not trying to keep the option open for a nuclear weapon” (AP, January 16, 2009). In September 2008, IAEA officials reported that enough enriched uranium to make six atom bombs disappeared from the main production facility at Isfahan. The officials believe the material was moved so as to be used for for covert research (Telegraph, September 12, 2008). In May 2009, Ahmadinejad rejected a Western proposal for it to “freeze” its nuclear program in return for no new sanctions and ruled out any talks with major powers on the issue (Reuters, May 25, 2009). At the end of 2008, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hassan Qashqavi declared that “Iran will never suspend uranium enrichment” (Reuters, December 9, 2008). Israeli intelligence officials have repeatedly revised their estimates of Iranian progress toward the development of nuclear weapons. “Iran is focusing its efforts in enriching uranium and improving the operational capabilities of its centrifuges,” the head of Israel’s Military Intelligence Research Division said in September 2008. “It is mastering the necessary technology and now has one-third of what it need to create a bomb.” Brigadier-General Yossi Baidatz added, “In view of the UN Security Council's inability to enforce a fourth round of sanctions, Iran's confidence is increasing and they now believe there is nothing the international community can do to stop them” (Ynet, ). In June 2009, Mossad director Meir Dagan estimated that Iran would have its first nuclear bomb ready for action in 2014 (Jerusalem Post, ). This might be an underestimation. Iran could master the technology needed to enrich uranium on a military scale within six months (Jerusalem Post, May 6, 2008). The IAEA reported on November 19, 2008, that Iran had produced 1,390 pounds of low-enriched uranium suitable for nuclear fuel. That milestone is enough to produce a single nuclear weapon, about the size of the bomb dropped by the U.S. on Nagasaki according to Thomas B. Cochrane of the Natural Resources Defense Council. He noted, however, that they still needed the technological knowhow to purify the fuel and produce a warhead (New York Times, November 19, 2008). Maj. Gen. Vladimir Dvorkin, head of the Moscow-based Center for Strategic Nuclear Forces, said the potential danger of an Iranian bomb is not the possibility of a nuclear strike against some countries, but the ability to assume a more bold approach in dealing with the international community after becoming a nuclear power. “The real threat is that Iran, which is already ignoring all resolutions and sanctions issued by the UN Security Council, will be practically ‘untouchable’ after acquiring nuclear-power status, and will be able to expand its support of terrorist organizations, including Hamas and Hezbollah” said Dvorkin (RIA Novosti, March 12, 2009). In May 2009, Iran tested a new missile, the Sejil, with a range of 1,200, that could reach Israel, U.S. regional bases and southeastern Europe (The Peninsula, May 21, 2009). The Sejil is similar to the Shahab-3 (“Shahab” means shooting star in Farsi), which was unveiled in September 2007. That missile’s range had been improved from 810 to 1,125 miles (JTA, September 23, 2007). The missile, which is capable of carrying a non-conventional warhead, could be stationed anywhere in Iran and reach Israel as well as parts of Europe. “I won't say the Iranians will be able to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles in the near future,” said Dvorkin, “but they will most likely be able to threaten the whole of Europe” (RIA Novosti, March 12, 2009). Iran made its first advance in the production of enriched uranium in 2005. In the same year, the Iranian government announced the establishment of a secret nuclear research center to train its scientists in all aspects of atomic technology. On July 31, 2006, the UN Security Council approved Resolution 1696, giving Iran until August 31 of that year to suspend its uranium enrichment and to implement full transparency measures requested by the IAEA. Iran insisted that it would continue its uranium enrichment program despite the Resolution. In response to Iran’s continued defiance, the Security Council unanimously passed resolution 1737 on December 23, 2006, that would block “the import or export of sensitive nuclear material" to the country. On February 22, 2007, the IAEA found Iran in violation of the Security Council ultimatum to freeze uranium enrichment. Iran continued to maintain that its nuclear program would not be stopped. In response, in March the IAEA announced the suspension of nuclear technical aid programs to Iran. Russia also announced it would withhold a nuclear fuel delivery to the county but then reversed its position.(Reuters, December 18, 2007 ). In April 2007, technological problems were found in the Iranian nuclear plants. Some of the centrifuges blew up during the enrichment process. (Agence France-Presse, Haaretz, April 17, 2007). IAEA inspectors concluded that Iran has solved most of its technological problems and was starting to enrich uranium on a far larger scale than before (New York Times, May 15, 2007). In February 2009, the IAEA updated the figures for the number of centrifuges in place in Natanz, bringing the total figure to 5,600, up from a count of 3,800 working centrifuges in the IAEA's November 2008 report (Jerusalem Post, February 20, 2009). In May 2009, however, Ahmadinejad claimed the number had grown to 7,000 (Jerusalem Post, May 28, 2009). The IAEA issued a report on November 15, 2007, which warned that the organization's understanding of Iran’s nuclear program “is diminishing” because Tehran was preventing more extensive inspections. In May, 2008 the IAEA accused Iran of stonewalling the agency through its refusal to provide requested documents. The agency also noted that Iran has ignored Security Council sanctions calling for an end to its enrichment activities and that instead, Iran has expanded its program (AP, May 26, 2008). In June 2008, the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany offered Iran incentives to suspend uranium enrichment. Iran refused and then announced that it would no longer cooperate with IAEA investigating the country’s nuclear weapons program (Washington Post, July 24, 2008). Ahmadinejad then announced that Iran had doubled its number of centrifuges in the past year. (Washington Post, July 26, 2008). In December, Mohamed ElBaradei, director-general of the IAEA admitted that sanctions have been “a failure” (Los Angeles Times, December 6, 2008). Iran claims it wants to develop nuclear energy for civilian purposes, but this is unlikely given the country’s enormous reserves of petroleum and gas. In addition, U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran is trying to fit missiles to carry nuclear weapons which suggests a military, not a civilian, program. If Iran’s nuclear program is not stopped, it is clear the arms race in the Middle East will be on and the proliferation of nuclear weapons will become a far more serious danger. The difficult question is what to do to preempt the Iranians. Imposing trade and other sanctions is an unpopular idea amongst European nations who are tied economically to Iran. It is also known that sanctions will not stop Iran's program. Military action does not have wide support in the administration or abroad. Iran maintains that it will strike U.S. interests around the world and Israel if attacked.(Haaretz, April 26, 2007). |
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