Potential Threats To Israel: Syria

by Mitchell Bard

(Updated December 14, 2009)

Syria remains Israel’s principal immediate military threat. In the past three years, Syria has spent more than $3 billion on weapons, up from less than $100 million in 2002. Even as reports disclosed that Syrian and Israeli officials were engaged in peace talks mediated by Turkey, the Syrian Defense Minister was in Iran discussing strengthening military ties. “Iran and Syria share the same viewpoint regarding regional issues and efforts will be made to strengthen our shared interests and bilateral relations," said Hassan Turkmani, who was dispatched to Tehran after Iranian officials condemned the resumption of negotiations with Israel.

Syria has reportedly received $1 billion from Iran in 2007-8 to buy surface-to-surface missiles, rockets, anti-tank missiles and anti-aircraft systems. According to Haaretz (March 21, 2008), “Israel has learned that Syria is buying more missiles than tanks, on the assumption that attacking the Israeli home front would deter Israel on the one hand, and help to determine the war on the other.”

A Syrian delegation visiting Moscow in May 2008 was reportedly seeking a variety of new weapons systems that Israel views as threatening. Israel is particularly concerned with a Syrian request for long-range S-300 surface-to-air missiles that could threaten IAF jets flying on the Israeli side of the Golan Heights. Syria also reportedly wants MiG 29 fighter jets and the Iskander surface-to-surface missile system, which is a longer range and more accurate missile than the ballistic missiles currently in Syria's arsenal. The Syrian navy, which currently has no submarines, is apparently also looking to purchase two Amur-1650 submarines from Russia. The dramatic increase in military spending and effort to significantly upgrade its military capability is one more reason Israelis are skeptical about Syrian intentions.

Weapons of Mass Destruction

On September 6, 2007, Israel bombed a site in northern Syria. Initial news reports suggested the raid was designed to either interdict a weapons shipment intended for Hezbollah in Lebanon or to destroy a site suspected of containing materials for a nuclear weapons program set up in collaboration with North Korea. The CIA subsequently said it was a North Korean-built plutonium reactor. The possibility that the site was related to a nuclear program is also supported by a U.S. intelligence report issued in May 2006 that said Pakistani investigators confirmed reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that the covert Pakistani supplier group headed by A.Q. Khan “offered nuclear technology and hardware to Syria.” The IAEA also reported in February 2009 that samples taken from the site revealed traces of processed uranium.

Syria denied the site was for a nuclear facility. The IAEA sent investigators to Dair Alzour, but they were given restricted access to the area. Nevertheless, a report was issued on November 19, 2008, which said the team found a “significant number” of uranium particles and concluded, “While it cannot be excluded that the building in question was intended for non-nuclear use, the features of the building...are similar to what may be found in connection with a reactor site.”

Syria was already known to conduct nuclear research at three facilities located at Dayr, Al Hajar and Dubaya. “In 2004, Syria continued to develop civilian nuclear capabilities, including uranium extraction technology and hot cell facilities, which may also be potentially applicable to a weapons program,” the report said. As a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Syria is required to submit to IAEA safeguards and inspections. In January 2007, the United States froze the assets of three Syrian entities involved in the development of nonconventional weapons.

According to Gregory Schulte, former U.S. envoy to the IAEA, Syria may be operating more nuclear sites.

Israel's attack raised tensions along the Golan Heights where Syrian actions had already provoked concern about the possibility of conflict. In March 2007, it was reported that Syria has positioned along the border with Israel thousands of medium and long-range rockets capable of striking major towns across northern Israel, including Haifa. A division was added to the Syrian army’s forward deployment on the Heights and the production of Scud missiles has been accelerated. Many of the rockets are hidden in underground chambers and in camouflaged silos. This deployment, coupled with other reports of Syrian troop mobilization and television broadcasts during May 2007 dedicated to “Golan Month,” may be an indication that Damascus is preparing for a future war.

Syria also continues to expand its arsenal of weapons of mass destruction. The Syrians can now manufacture several hundred tons of chemical warfare agents per year at four separate production facilities. In late 2005, Jane's Defence Weekly reported that Iran is providing technical assistance to help Syria develop the means to produce VX and Sarin nerve agents and mustard blister agent. According to a February 2009 report by Jane's, Syria has been constructing a new chemical weapons facility in Al-Safir, the home of an existing chemical weapons production facility and a missile base with long-range Scud D ballistic missiles.

Syria and Iran

Under a mutual defense pact signed between Syria and Iran in 2005, Syria agreed to allow the deployment of Iranian weapons on its territory. On June 15, 2006, Syria’s defense minister, Hassan Turkmani, signed an agreement with his Iranian counterpart for military cooperation against what they called the “common threats” presented by Israel and the United States. “Our cooperation is based on a strategic pact and unity against common threats,” said Turkmani. “We can have a common front against Israel’s threats.” In December 2009, Syria and Iran signed an additional defense agreement aimed to face “common enemies and challenges.” In praising the agreement, Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said, “it is natural for a country like Syria - which has an inhumane and menacing predator like Israel in its neighborhood - to be always prepared [against possible foreign aggression].”

UN officials said in June 2007 the Iranians were preparing to transfer medium-range Shahab-3, Russian-made Scud-C missiles and Scud-B missiles in preparation for military action if it is attacked over its nuclear program. Many of these missiles can be fired from mobile launchers and are capable of hitting targets throughout Israel. Syria has already received, via Iran, hundreds of extended-range North Korean Scud-C missiles, and is reportedly building its own ballistic missiles from imported technology. North Korea has supplied complete Scuds and production equipment to Syria. In 2003, Syria was said to have a new Scud-D missile, developed with Korean assistance, which has a range of 300 miles (sufficient to cover all of Israel). The missile is also capable of carrying chemical weapons. The May 2006 U.S. intelligence report said Syria continues to seek help in building solid-propellant rocket motors, and that North Korea supplied equipment and assistance to the missile program. Syria is building its own liquid-fueled Scud missiles and is developing a 500-mile-range Scud D and other variants with help from North Korea and Iran, the report said.

“Syria test-fired three Scud missiles on May 27, 2005, including one that broke up over Turkey,” the New York Times reported. “These were the first such Syrian missile tests since 2001, and were part of a Syrian missile development project using North Korean technology and designed to deliver air-burst chemical weapons. The missiles included one Scud B with a range of 185 miles, and two Scud Ds with a range of 435 miles.” Months later, Western experts who examined the remains of the missile that fell in Turkey concluded Syria had introduced significant changes in the advanced model of the Scud D missile that gives it greater guidance capability and accuracy.

Over the objections of Israel and the United States, Russia announced plans in early 2005 to sell Syria advanced SA-18 anti-aircraft missiles. Russian President Vladimir Putin told Prime Minister Ariel Sharon that the weapons were not shoulder-missiles favored by the terror organizations, but rather they would be mounted on vehicles, and therefore they would not endanger Israel. Putin also said Syria's placement of the missiles would be designed to avoid a change in the balance of power in the area, but would prevent Israeli war planes from being able to fly over Syrian President Bashar Assad's presidential palace in Damascus. Israeli defense officials still expressed concern that the mounted version could be modified into a shoulder-held version in a relatively simple process. From that point, the officials said, the missiles could easily reach insurgents in Iran or Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon.

Syria now has more troops and tanks, and nearly as many aircraft as Israel. The Assad regime fields armed forces totaling more than 380,000 men, with another 130,000 troops in reserve. Syria's arsenal includes approximately 3,700 tanks and some 510 combat aircraft.

Though the quality of Syrian forces is regarded as inferior to that of Israel, the deployment of these forces facing the Golan indicates Assad is keeping his military options open.

The Terror Connection

Syria harbors in Damascus representatives of ten Palestinian terrorist organizations including Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine all of which are opposed to advances in the peace process between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. These groups have launched terrible attacks against innocent Israeli citizens, which have resulted in hundreds of deaths. Syria also supports the Iranian-funded Hezbollah.

For more than 30 years, Lebanon was essentially controlled by Syria. With Syrian acquiescence, Lebanon became the home to a number of the most radical and violent Islamic organizations. Hezbollah (Party of God), in particular, has been used by the Syrians as a proxy to fight Israel.

On October 19, 2004, the UN Security Council released a demand that Syria should abide by a resolution calling on Damascus to withdraw its 14,000 troops from Lebanon, dismantle the Hezbollah organization and respect Lebanon’s independence. Buoyed by the UN intervention, the opposition in Lebanon grew more vocal demanding an end to Syrian hegemony. After former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was assassinated on February 14, 2005, the pressure on Syria intensified and its troops were finally withdrawn in April.

Nevertheless, Syria continues to exercise great influence in Lebanon. Syria and its allies are believed responsible for a series of assassinations to undermine Lebanese democracy that have eliminated anti-Syrian members of the Lebanese parliament, the most recent attack coming in September 2007. Syria supplied Hezbollah with weapons used in the war fought with Israel in July 2006 and has been resupplying the organization in defiance of the UN since the war ended..