Memorandum Urging Delay on Arms Deal Until After Dimona Inspection
(April 18, 1967)
In this memorandum, special assistant to President
Johnson, Walt Rostow, urges that the final decision on the arms deal
with Israel be postponed until after the U.S. has inspected the Dimona
plant in the Negev.
SUBJECT
Israeli Aid Package
The attached table/2/ reviews where we stand. Three
issues remain. You may want to discuss the APC's with Secretaries Rusk
and McNamara Thursday/3/ afternoon. Whatever you decide, I recommend
you hold them until after 28 April when we'll have a report on this
weekend's inspection of the Dimona nuclear plant.
/2/Not printed; see footnote 1, Document 401.
/3/April 20.
I. Armed Personnel Carriers. Secretaries McNamara (Tab
A)/4/ and Katzenbach (Tab B)/5/ have reconsidered and still recommend
against. Their arguments boil down to:
/4/Document 405.
/5/Katzenbach's April 17 memorandum to the President
is not printed.
A. Uneasiness about fueling any arms race. Congress
is concerned. Our India-Pak decision tried to restrain that buildup,
and we've kept our Middle East programs to the minimum. APC's would
not seriously affect the arms balance, but no one wants to start another
round of sales. In the context of the Non-Proliferation talks, we may
even try for tacit Soviet agreement to hold down arms shipments to the
Middle East. This sale wouldn't upset that effort, but our skirts would
be cleaner without it.
B. Concern over too close a military relationship while
Israel's nuclear intentions are in doubt. Our intelligence people suspect--on
uncertain evidence--that Israel may be building a separation plant.
Our inspection team will visit Dimona this weekend for the first time
in over a year. With the NPT ahead of us, we may need a clear expression
of Israel's position. We can't bargain with APC's, but we could hold
them until we're sure our inspection team gets full cooperation.
Our dilemma is that foreign policy interests argue
against a sale now, but the Israelis will treat a "no" as
a broken promise. Israel could do without APC's this year, but Eshkol
believes that we promised something in return for their keeping quiet
on our Jordan package last December.
If we go ahead, Secretary Katzenbach recommends we
minimize repercussions by selling only 100. He suggests stretching delivery
through 1970, but after our airlift to Jordan, I'm afraid that won't
work. In any case, we must control publicity and timing. Defense tentatively
concludes that Israel could set up an assembly line using some US-supplied
parts, but Secretary Katzenbach believes this would make our relationship
too close.
You may want to hear argument before deciding. On foreign
policy grounds alone, I would recommend telling the Israelis we can't
sell APC's now, but would reconsider next year. But if you want to go
ahead, I recommend 75-100 now and promising to discuss assembly in Israel.
Hold APC's until after 28 April; go ahead with the
rest of the package now
I want to move on 100 APC's and assembly; ask for
a scenario/6/
I'm willing to say "not now"
/6/The first option is revised in Johnson's handwriting
to read: "Hold APC's and package until after 28 April." The
second option is checked.
II. Amount and terms of PL 480. Secretary Katzenbach
recommended $23.5 million because Agriculture judged that Israel will
need less than it asked for. Your figure was $28 million--the full Israeli
request. One way to avoid rushing more scarce grain than needed would
be to negotiate $23.5 million now but say we'll go up to $28 million
if Israel needs more.
In view of Congressional pressure to tighten terms,
Secretary Katzenbach recommended 75% dollar sale at about 4.5% interest
(last year 25% at 2.5%). Normally, we would figure on moving to 50%
dollar sale at maybe 3.5% as an appropriate transitional step. You initially
preferred last year's terms, but you may want to consider slight hardening
this year to put us on a better footing with Congress.
$23.5 million now; will amend up to $28 million/7/
/7/This option and the "2.5% interest" option
are checked.
Up to $28 million now
25% dollar sale--2.5% interest
50% dollar sale--3.5% interest
75% dollar sale--4.5% interest
III. Moving on Bunker's successor might improve the
package. Bob Bowie is a good possibility, but we might ask Douglas Dillon
again.
See if Dillon is available
Sound out Feinberg on Bowie/8/
Give me other names
/8/This option is checked.
Walt
Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country
File, Israel, Israeli Aid, 5/67. Secret; Exdis. Filed with an April
18 covering memorandum from Rostow to the President recommending that
he hold the APCs--and if politically feasible, the whole package--until
April 28. The covering memorandum bears Johnson's handwritten note:
"Put on my desk & have available when Feinberg appt is ready.
L."
Sources: Foreign
Relations of the United States, 1964-1968, V. 18, Arab-Israeli
Dispute 1964-1967. DC: GPO,
2000. |