Will the Netanyahu Government Fall?

When Foreign Minister David Levy resigned and took the other members of his party out of the ruling coalition, press reports began to talk about the fragility of the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Many of these stories have been misleading and reflect a misunderstanding of the rules of Israel's parliamentary democracy.

For most of Israel's history, a government could be brought down by a vote of no-confidence by the majority (that is, 61 of 120) of members of the Knesset. So far, a government has been brought down in Israel only once by a vote of noconfidence--on March 15, 1990. Since every Israeli government has been composed of a coalition of parties, the withdrawal of one or more smaller parties occasionally caused the collapse of a ruling coalition. This has most frequently occurred as a result of disputes over religious rather than strictly political issues.

It is still true that new elections for the Knesset must be called if a majority of the Knesset votes no-confidence in the government; however, this would not require an election for Prime Minister. In 1992, the Knesset adopted an amendment to the Basic Law: The Government that provided for the direct election of the Prime Minister. In addition, a two-thirds majority (80 votes) of the Knesset was now required to force new elections for Prime Minister.

When Levy left the coalition, Netanyahu was left with only 61 members of Knesset supporting his government. A dispute over a religious or political issue could cause the necessary defections to force new Knesset elections; however, this is probably less likely than the press has suggested. For example, six Knesset members from the opposition Labor Party have said (Yediot Aharonot, Jan. 14, 1998) they would support the Netanyahu government on the issue of a second redeployment from the West Bank, thereby partially countering the threat of some members of the coalition to resign if an agreement for a further redeployment was reached.

Moreover, it is highly improbable that 80 members of the Knesset would oppose the Prime Minister's policies and force new elections for the nation's highest post. The next scheduled election for Prime Minister is not until 2000.