American Muslim Population Figures are Inflated

(October 23, 2001)

Estimates of the Muslim population in the United States are lower than widely believed, according to a new study issued by the American Jewish Committee. “The average number being cited by the media at present – 6.7 million Muslims – is 2.4 to 3.6 times greater than the best available estimates, which are 1.9 million to 2.8 million,” concludes Dr. Tom W. Smith, who authored the study, “Estimating the Muslim Population in the United States.”

Dr. Smith, a nationally recognized expert in survey research, is director of the General Social Survey at the National Opinion Research Center of the University of Chicago. For this report on the Muslim population, Dr. Smith exhaustively analyzed all available demographic survey data and scholarly sources.

“The best adjusted, survey-based estimate puts the total Muslim population at 1,876,000,” writes Dr. Smith. “Even if high side estimates based on local surveys, figures from mosques, and ancestry and immigration statistics are given more weight than the survey-based numbers, it is hard to accept estimates that Muslims are greater than one percent of the population, or 2,814,000.”

“Since the Sept. 11 terror attacks, the media has used estimates of the Muslim population in the United States of 5 million to 8 million, with an average of 6.7 million or 2.4 percent of the total population,” writes Dr. Smith. “None of the 20 estimates during the last five years is based on a scientifically-sound or explicit methodology,” Dr. Smith states. “All can probably be characterized as guesses or assertions.”